Prediction 2900

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Alagoas

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=AL (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 25.87 3.22 4.55 6.79 12.70 53.15 102.04 153.23 211.45
2022-10-16 30.05 3.74 5.29 7.89 14.75 61.73 118.52 177.99 245.61
2022-10-23 34.90 4.34 6.14 9.16 17.13 71.70 137.66 206.73 285.26
2022-10-30 40.53 5.04 7.13 10.64 19.89 83.27 159.87 240.08 331.28
2022-11-06 47.06 5.86 8.28 12.35 23.10 96.69 185.63 278.76 384.67
2022-11-13 54.64 6.80 9.62 14.34 26.81 112.24 215.50 323.62 446.56
2022-11-20 63.41 7.89 11.16 16.64 31.12 130.27 250.11 375.59 518.28
2022-11-27 73.57 9.15 12.95 19.30 36.11 151.13 290.17 435.74 601.28
2022-12-04 85.31 10.61 15.01 22.38 41.87 175.25 336.47 505.27 697.23
2022-12-11 98.85 12.30 17.40 25.94 48.51 203.07 389.90 585.51 807.94
2022-12-18 114.44 14.24 20.14 30.03 56.17 235.11 451.40 677.86 935.38
2022-12-25 132.33 16.47 23.29 34.72 64.95 271.86 521.97 783.83 1081.61
2023-01-01 152.77 19.01 26.89 40.09 74.98 313.85 602.58 904.90 1248.67
2023-01-08 175.99 21.90 30.97 46.18 86.37 361.54 694.15 1042.40 1438.41
2023-01-15 202.15 25.15 35.58 53.04 99.21 415.28 797.33 1197.35 1652.22
2023-01-22 231.32 28.78 40.71 60.70 113.53 475.21 912.39 1370.13 1890.64
2023-01-29 263.39 32.77 46.36 69.11 129.27 541.09 1038.89 1560.09 2152.77
2023-02-05 297.99 37.08 52.45 78.19 146.25 612.17 1175.34 1765.01 2435.53
2023-02-12 334.37 41.60 58.85 87.74 164.10 686.91 1318.85 1980.50 2732.90
2023-02-19 371.33 46.20 65.36 97.44 182.24 762.85 1464.65 2199.46 3035.03
2023-02-26 407.17 50.66 71.66 106.84 199.83 836.47 1606.00 2411.72 3327.94
2023-03-05 439.69 54.71 77.39 115.38 215.79 903.28 1734.28 2604.35 3593.75
2023-03-12 466.43 58.03 82.09 122.39 228.92 958.22 1839.76 2762.75 3812.32
2023-03-19 485.00 60.34 85.36 127.26 238.03 996.36 1912.98 2872.70 3964.05
2023-03-26 493.51 61.40 86.86 129.50 242.21 1013.85 1946.57 2923.15 4033.66
2023-04-02 491.07 61.10 86.43 128.86 241.01 1008.83 1936.92 2908.66 4013.66
2023-04-09 477.92 59.46 84.12 125.41 234.56 981.83 1885.08 2830.81 3906.24
2023-04-16 455.47 56.67 80.16 119.52 223.54 935.69 1796.50 2697.79 3722.69
2023-04-23 425.86 52.99 74.95 111.75 209.00 874.86 1679.71 2522.41 3480.67
2023-04-30 391.57 48.72 68.92 102.75 192.18 804.43 1544.49 2319.34 3200.46
2023-05-07 354.99 44.17 62.48 93.15 174.22 729.28 1400.20 2102.67 2901.48
2023-05-14 318.10 39.58 55.99 83.47 156.12 653.50 1254.70 1884.17 2599.98
2023-05-21 282.39 35.14 49.70 74.10 138.59 580.14 1113.85 1672.66 2308.11
2023-05-28 248.85 30.96 43.80 65.30 122.13 511.22 981.54 1473.97 2033.93
2023-06-04 218.03 27.13 38.37 57.21 107.01 447.92 859.99 1291.45 1782.07
2023-06-11 190.20 23.66 33.48 49.91 93.34 390.73 750.19 1126.55 1554.53
2023-06-18 165.35 20.57 29.10 43.39 81.15 339.70 652.21 979.42 1351.50
2023-06-25 143.39 17.84 25.24 37.63 70.38 294.58 565.59 849.34 1172.01
2023-07-02 124.11 15.44 21.84 32.57 60.91 254.97 489.54 735.14 1014.42
2023-07-09 107.27 13.35 18.88 28.15 52.65 220.37 423.11 635.38 876.76
2023-07-16 92.62 11.52 16.30 24.30 45.45 190.27 365.30 548.57 756.98
2023-07-23 79.90 9.94 14.06 20.97 39.21 164.14 315.14 473.25 653.04
2023-07-30 68.89 8.57 12.12 18.08 33.81 141.52 271.71 408.03 563.04
2023-08-06 59.37 7.39 10.45 15.58 29.14 121.96 234.16 351.64 485.22
2023-08-13 51.15 6.36 9.00 13.42 25.10 105.07 201.73 302.94 418.03
2023-08-20 44.05 5.48 7.75 11.56 21.62 90.50 173.75 260.93 360.05
2023-08-27 37.94 4.72 6.68 9.95 18.62 77.93 149.63 224.70 310.06
2023-09-03 32.66 4.06 5.75 8.57 16.03 67.10 128.84 193.47 266.97
2023-09-10 28.12 3.50 4.95 7.38 13.80 57.77 110.92 166.57 229.85
2023-09-17 24.21 3.01 4.26 6.35 11.88 49.74 95.49 143.40 197.88
2023-09-24 20.84 2.59 3.67 5.47 10.23 42.81 82.20 123.44 170.34
2023-10-01 22.27 2.77 3.92 5.84 10.93 45.75 87.84 131.91 182.03
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