Prediction 2904
| Model | LNCC-SURGE-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | CearĂ¡ |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=CE (Model1 AR_p)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 63.66 | 12.19 | 15.94 | 21.68 | 36.10 | 114.46 | 191.67 | 253.46 | 333.53 |
| 2022-10-16 | 75.04 | 14.37 | 18.79 | 25.56 | 42.55 | 134.92 | 225.94 | 298.79 | 393.17 |
| 2022-10-23 | 88.45 | 16.94 | 22.15 | 30.13 | 50.16 | 159.04 | 266.33 | 352.20 | 463.44 |
| 2022-10-30 | 104.25 | 19.97 | 26.11 | 35.51 | 59.12 | 187.45 | 313.90 | 415.11 | 546.23 |
| 2022-11-06 | 122.86 | 23.53 | 30.76 | 41.84 | 69.67 | 220.90 | 369.92 | 489.19 | 643.71 |
| 2022-11-13 | 144.75 | 27.73 | 36.25 | 49.30 | 82.09 | 260.28 | 435.86 | 576.38 | 758.45 |
| 2022-11-20 | 170.51 | 32.66 | 42.70 | 58.08 | 96.70 | 306.59 | 513.41 | 678.94 | 893.40 |
| 2022-11-27 | 200.78 | 38.46 | 50.28 | 68.38 | 113.86 | 361.01 | 604.55 | 799.46 | 1051.99 |
| 2022-12-04 | 236.30 | 45.26 | 59.17 | 80.48 | 134.01 | 424.88 | 711.51 | 940.90 | 1238.11 |
| 2022-12-11 | 277.91 | 53.23 | 69.59 | 94.66 | 157.61 | 499.70 | 836.80 | 1106.60 | 1456.14 |
| 2022-12-18 | 326.54 | 62.55 | 81.77 | 111.22 | 185.18 | 587.13 | 983.22 | 1300.21 | 1710.92 |
| 2022-12-25 | 383.16 | 73.39 | 95.95 | 130.50 | 217.29 | 688.95 | 1153.71 | 1525.68 | 2007.60 |
| 2023-01-01 | 448.78 | 85.96 | 112.38 | 152.85 | 254.51 | 806.94 | 1351.30 | 1786.97 | 2351.43 |
| 2023-01-08 | 524.33 | 100.43 | 131.30 | 178.58 | 297.35 | 942.77 | 1578.76 | 2087.77 | 2747.24 |
| 2023-01-15 | 610.49 | 116.94 | 152.87 | 207.93 | 346.22 | 1097.70 | 1838.21 | 2430.86 | 3198.71 |
| 2023-01-22 | 707.53 | 135.53 | 177.17 | 240.98 | 401.25 | 1272.17 | 2130.39 | 2817.25 | 3707.14 |
| 2023-01-29 | 814.90 | 156.09 | 204.06 | 277.55 | 462.14 | 1465.24 | 2453.69 | 3244.78 | 4269.72 |
| 2023-02-05 | 930.86 | 178.30 | 233.09 | 317.05 | 527.90 | 1673.74 | 2802.84 | 3706.51 | 4877.29 |
| 2023-02-12 | 1051.95 | 201.50 | 263.42 | 358.29 | 596.57 | 1891.46 | 3167.45 | 4188.66 | 5511.75 |
| 2023-02-19 | 1172.61 | 224.61 | 293.63 | 399.38 | 665.00 | 2108.41 | 3530.76 | 4669.10 | 6143.95 |
| 2023-02-26 | 1285.07 | 246.15 | 321.79 | 437.69 | 728.77 | 2310.62 | 3869.38 | 5116.90 | 6733.19 |
| 2023-03-05 | 1379.89 | 264.32 | 345.54 | 469.99 | 782.55 | 2481.12 | 4154.90 | 5494.48 | 7230.03 |
| 2023-03-12 | 1447.34 | 277.24 | 362.43 | 492.96 | 820.80 | 2602.40 | 4358.00 | 5763.06 | 7583.45 |
| 2023-03-19 | 1479.44 | 283.39 | 370.46 | 503.89 | 839.00 | 2660.12 | 4454.64 | 5890.86 | 7751.62 |
| 2023-03-26 | 1472.06 | 281.97 | 368.62 | 501.38 | 834.82 | 2646.85 | 4432.43 | 5861.49 | 7712.98 |
| 2023-04-02 | 1426.18 | 273.18 | 357.13 | 485.75 | 808.80 | 2564.35 | 4294.28 | 5678.79 | 7472.57 |
| 2023-04-09 | 1347.54 | 258.12 | 337.44 | 458.97 | 764.20 | 2422.96 | 4057.50 | 5365.67 | 7060.54 |
| 2023-04-16 | 1245.04 | 238.49 | 311.77 | 424.06 | 706.08 | 2238.66 | 3748.87 | 4957.54 | 6523.49 |
| 2023-04-23 | 1128.52 | 216.17 | 282.59 | 384.37 | 640.00 | 2029.15 | 3398.03 | 4493.58 | 5912.98 |
| 2023-04-30 | 1006.92 | 192.87 | 252.14 | 342.95 | 571.03 | 1810.49 | 3031.86 | 4009.36 | 5275.80 |
| 2023-05-07 | 887.19 | 169.94 | 222.16 | 302.17 | 503.14 | 1595.22 | 2671.37 | 3532.64 | 4648.51 |
| 2023-05-14 | 774.11 | 148.28 | 193.84 | 263.66 | 439.00 | 1391.89 | 2330.86 | 3082.35 | 4055.98 |
| 2023-05-21 | 670.42 | 128.42 | 167.88 | 228.34 | 380.20 | 1205.46 | 2018.67 | 2669.50 | 3512.73 |
| 2023-05-28 | 577.39 | 110.60 | 144.58 | 196.66 | 327.44 | 1038.18 | 1738.54 | 2299.06 | 3025.28 |
| 2023-06-04 | 495.21 | 94.86 | 124.00 | 168.67 | 280.84 | 890.41 | 1491.09 | 1971.83 | 2594.68 |
| 2023-06-11 | 423.43 | 81.11 | 106.03 | 144.22 | 240.13 | 761.35 | 1274.96 | 1686.02 | 2218.59 |
| 2023-06-18 | 361.25 | 69.20 | 90.46 | 123.04 | 204.87 | 649.54 | 1087.73 | 1438.42 | 1892.78 |
| 2023-06-25 | 307.69 | 58.94 | 77.05 | 104.80 | 174.50 | 553.25 | 926.48 | 1225.18 | 1612.19 |
| 2023-07-02 | 261.77 | 50.14 | 65.55 | 89.16 | 148.45 | 470.68 | 788.21 | 1042.33 | 1371.57 |
| 2023-07-09 | 222.51 | 42.62 | 55.72 | 75.79 | 126.19 | 400.09 | 670.00 | 886.01 | 1165.87 |
| 2023-07-16 | 189.03 | 36.21 | 47.33 | 64.38 | 107.20 | 339.88 | 569.16 | 752.67 | 990.41 |
| 2023-07-23 | 160.51 | 30.74 | 40.19 | 54.67 | 91.02 | 288.60 | 483.29 | 639.11 | 840.98 |
| 2023-07-30 | 136.25 | 26.10 | 34.12 | 46.40 | 77.27 | 244.98 | 410.24 | 542.51 | 713.87 |
| 2023-08-06 | 115.63 | 22.15 | 28.95 | 39.38 | 65.57 | 207.90 | 348.15 | 460.40 | 605.83 |
| 2023-08-13 | 98.11 | 18.79 | 24.57 | 33.42 | 55.64 | 176.41 | 295.41 | 390.66 | 514.05 |
| 2023-08-20 | 83.24 | 15.94 | 20.84 | 28.35 | 47.20 | 149.67 | 250.63 | 331.44 | 436.13 |
| 2023-08-27 | 70.61 | 13.53 | 17.68 | 24.05 | 40.05 | 126.97 | 212.62 | 281.17 | 369.99 |
| 2023-09-03 | 59.90 | 11.47 | 15.00 | 20.40 | 33.97 | 107.70 | 180.36 | 238.51 | 313.85 |
| 2023-09-10 | 50.81 | 9.73 | 12.72 | 17.31 | 28.82 | 91.36 | 152.99 | 202.32 | 266.23 |
| 2023-09-17 | 43.10 | 8.26 | 10.79 | 14.68 | 24.44 | 77.49 | 129.77 | 171.61 | 225.82 |
| 2023-09-24 | 36.56 | 7.00 | 9.15 | 12.45 | 20.73 | 65.73 | 110.07 | 145.56 | 191.54 |
| 2023-10-01 | 54.00 | 10.34 | 13.52 | 18.39 | 30.62 | 97.09 | 162.58 | 215.00 | 282.92 |
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