Prediction 2904

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Ceará

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=CE (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 63.66 12.19 15.94 21.68 36.10 114.46 191.67 253.46 333.53
2022-10-16 75.04 14.37 18.79 25.56 42.55 134.92 225.94 298.79 393.17
2022-10-23 88.45 16.94 22.15 30.13 50.16 159.04 266.33 352.20 463.44
2022-10-30 104.25 19.97 26.11 35.51 59.12 187.45 313.90 415.11 546.23
2022-11-06 122.86 23.53 30.76 41.84 69.67 220.90 369.92 489.19 643.71
2022-11-13 144.75 27.73 36.25 49.30 82.09 260.28 435.86 576.38 758.45
2022-11-20 170.51 32.66 42.70 58.08 96.70 306.59 513.41 678.94 893.40
2022-11-27 200.78 38.46 50.28 68.38 113.86 361.01 604.55 799.46 1051.99
2022-12-04 236.30 45.26 59.17 80.48 134.01 424.88 711.51 940.90 1238.11
2022-12-11 277.91 53.23 69.59 94.66 157.61 499.70 836.80 1106.60 1456.14
2022-12-18 326.54 62.55 81.77 111.22 185.18 587.13 983.22 1300.21 1710.92
2022-12-25 383.16 73.39 95.95 130.50 217.29 688.95 1153.71 1525.68 2007.60
2023-01-01 448.78 85.96 112.38 152.85 254.51 806.94 1351.30 1786.97 2351.43
2023-01-08 524.33 100.43 131.30 178.58 297.35 942.77 1578.76 2087.77 2747.24
2023-01-15 610.49 116.94 152.87 207.93 346.22 1097.70 1838.21 2430.86 3198.71
2023-01-22 707.53 135.53 177.17 240.98 401.25 1272.17 2130.39 2817.25 3707.14
2023-01-29 814.90 156.09 204.06 277.55 462.14 1465.24 2453.69 3244.78 4269.72
2023-02-05 930.86 178.30 233.09 317.05 527.90 1673.74 2802.84 3706.51 4877.29
2023-02-12 1051.95 201.50 263.42 358.29 596.57 1891.46 3167.45 4188.66 5511.75
2023-02-19 1172.61 224.61 293.63 399.38 665.00 2108.41 3530.76 4669.10 6143.95
2023-02-26 1285.07 246.15 321.79 437.69 728.77 2310.62 3869.38 5116.90 6733.19
2023-03-05 1379.89 264.32 345.54 469.99 782.55 2481.12 4154.90 5494.48 7230.03
2023-03-12 1447.34 277.24 362.43 492.96 820.80 2602.40 4358.00 5763.06 7583.45
2023-03-19 1479.44 283.39 370.46 503.89 839.00 2660.12 4454.64 5890.86 7751.62
2023-03-26 1472.06 281.97 368.62 501.38 834.82 2646.85 4432.43 5861.49 7712.98
2023-04-02 1426.18 273.18 357.13 485.75 808.80 2564.35 4294.28 5678.79 7472.57
2023-04-09 1347.54 258.12 337.44 458.97 764.20 2422.96 4057.50 5365.67 7060.54
2023-04-16 1245.04 238.49 311.77 424.06 706.08 2238.66 3748.87 4957.54 6523.49
2023-04-23 1128.52 216.17 282.59 384.37 640.00 2029.15 3398.03 4493.58 5912.98
2023-04-30 1006.92 192.87 252.14 342.95 571.03 1810.49 3031.86 4009.36 5275.80
2023-05-07 887.19 169.94 222.16 302.17 503.14 1595.22 2671.37 3532.64 4648.51
2023-05-14 774.11 148.28 193.84 263.66 439.00 1391.89 2330.86 3082.35 4055.98
2023-05-21 670.42 128.42 167.88 228.34 380.20 1205.46 2018.67 2669.50 3512.73
2023-05-28 577.39 110.60 144.58 196.66 327.44 1038.18 1738.54 2299.06 3025.28
2023-06-04 495.21 94.86 124.00 168.67 280.84 890.41 1491.09 1971.83 2594.68
2023-06-11 423.43 81.11 106.03 144.22 240.13 761.35 1274.96 1686.02 2218.59
2023-06-18 361.25 69.20 90.46 123.04 204.87 649.54 1087.73 1438.42 1892.78
2023-06-25 307.69 58.94 77.05 104.80 174.50 553.25 926.48 1225.18 1612.19
2023-07-02 261.77 50.14 65.55 89.16 148.45 470.68 788.21 1042.33 1371.57
2023-07-09 222.51 42.62 55.72 75.79 126.19 400.09 670.00 886.01 1165.87
2023-07-16 189.03 36.21 47.33 64.38 107.20 339.88 569.16 752.67 990.41
2023-07-23 160.51 30.74 40.19 54.67 91.02 288.60 483.29 639.11 840.98
2023-07-30 136.25 26.10 34.12 46.40 77.27 244.98 410.24 542.51 713.87
2023-08-06 115.63 22.15 28.95 39.38 65.57 207.90 348.15 460.40 605.83
2023-08-13 98.11 18.79 24.57 33.42 55.64 176.41 295.41 390.66 514.05
2023-08-20 83.24 15.94 20.84 28.35 47.20 149.67 250.63 331.44 436.13
2023-08-27 70.61 13.53 17.68 24.05 40.05 126.97 212.62 281.17 369.99
2023-09-03 59.90 11.47 15.00 20.40 33.97 107.70 180.36 238.51 313.85
2023-09-10 50.81 9.73 12.72 17.31 28.82 91.36 152.99 202.32 266.23
2023-09-17 43.10 8.26 10.79 14.68 24.44 77.49 129.77 171.61 225.82
2023-09-24 36.56 7.00 9.15 12.45 20.73 65.73 110.07 145.56 191.54
2023-10-01 54.00 10.34 13.52 18.39 30.62 97.09 162.58 215.00 282.92
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