Prediction 2905

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Distrito Federal

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=DF (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 20.80 1.67 2.52 4.01 8.72 47.70 107.18 173.38 253.09
2022-10-16 24.76 1.99 3.00 4.78 10.38 56.79 127.59 206.39 301.27
2022-10-23 29.47 2.36 3.57 5.69 12.36 67.59 151.88 245.67 358.62
2022-10-30 35.07 2.81 4.25 6.77 14.71 80.46 180.77 292.41 426.85
2022-11-06 41.74 3.35 5.05 8.05 17.51 95.76 215.15 348.02 508.03
2022-11-13 49.68 3.99 6.01 9.58 20.83 113.95 256.03 414.15 604.56
2022-11-20 59.11 4.74 7.16 11.40 24.79 135.58 304.63 492.76 719.31
2022-11-27 70.31 5.64 8.51 13.57 29.48 161.28 362.36 586.15 855.63
2022-12-04 83.60 6.71 10.12 16.13 35.06 191.77 430.89 696.99 1017.44
2022-12-11 99.36 7.97 12.03 19.17 41.67 227.92 512.12 828.39 1209.24
2022-12-18 118.01 9.47 14.29 22.77 49.49 270.70 608.24 983.86 1436.20
2022-12-25 140.02 11.24 16.95 27.02 58.72 321.20 721.68 1167.37 1704.08
2023-01-01 165.91 13.31 20.09 32.01 69.58 380.58 855.11 1383.20 2019.13
2023-01-08 196.20 15.74 23.76 37.86 82.28 450.06 1011.24 1635.74 2387.78
2023-01-15 231.40 18.57 28.02 44.65 97.04 530.79 1192.63 1929.16 2816.09
2023-01-22 271.88 21.82 32.92 52.46 114.02 623.65 1401.25 2266.63 3308.72
2023-01-29 317.78 25.50 38.48 61.31 133.26 728.94 1637.83 2649.30 3867.33
2023-02-05 368.80 29.59 44.65 71.16 154.66 845.97 1900.78 3074.65 4488.24
2023-02-12 423.94 34.02 51.33 81.79 177.78 972.45 2184.97 3534.35 5159.28
2023-02-19 481.21 38.61 58.27 92.85 201.80 1103.83 2480.17 4011.85 5856.32
2023-02-26 537.44 43.12 65.07 103.69 225.38 1232.80 2769.95 4480.59 6540.56
2023-03-05 588.23 47.20 71.22 113.49 246.68 1349.32 3031.74 4904.06 7158.72
2023-03-12 628.47 50.43 76.10 121.26 263.56 1441.62 3239.13 5239.52 7648.41
2023-03-19 653.24 52.42 79.10 126.04 273.94 1498.43 3366.78 5446.01 7949.83
2023-03-26 659.12 52.89 79.81 127.17 276.41 1511.92 3397.09 5495.03 8021.39
2023-04-02 645.25 51.78 78.13 124.50 270.60 1480.12 3325.63 5379.45 7852.67
2023-04-09 613.64 49.24 74.30 118.40 257.34 1407.60 3162.69 5115.87 7467.91
2023-04-16 568.45 45.61 68.83 109.68 238.39 1303.95 2929.81 4739.17 6918.02
2023-04-23 514.85 41.31 62.34 99.33 215.91 1180.99 2653.52 4292.26 6265.64
2023-04-30 457.73 36.73 55.42 88.31 191.95 1049.96 2359.13 3816.05 5570.50
2023-05-07 401.01 32.18 48.56 77.37 168.17 919.86 2066.81 3343.21 4880.27
2023-05-14 347.38 27.87 42.06 67.02 145.68 796.83 1790.38 2896.07 4227.55
2023-05-21 298.37 23.94 36.13 57.57 125.13 684.43 1537.82 2487.53 3631.18
2023-05-28 254.68 20.44 30.84 49.14 106.80 584.20 1312.63 2123.27 3099.46
2023-06-04 216.40 17.36 26.20 41.75 90.75 496.38 1115.31 1804.09 2633.53
2023-06-11 183.26 14.70 22.19 35.36 76.85 420.37 944.53 1527.84 2230.27
2023-06-18 154.83 12.42 18.75 29.87 64.93 355.16 798.00 1290.82 1884.29
2023-06-25 130.59 10.48 15.81 25.20 54.77 299.56 673.07 1088.74 1589.29
2023-07-02 110.01 8.83 13.32 21.23 46.14 252.36 567.01 917.18 1338.86
2023-07-09 92.60 7.43 11.21 17.87 38.83 212.41 477.26 772.00 1126.93
2023-07-16 77.89 6.25 9.43 15.03 32.67 178.68 401.47 649.40 947.97
2023-07-23 65.50 5.26 7.93 12.64 27.47 150.24 337.57 546.04 797.09
2023-07-30 55.06 4.42 6.67 10.62 23.09 126.29 283.76 458.99 670.02
2023-08-06 46.27 3.71 5.60 8.93 19.40 106.13 238.47 385.74 563.09
2023-08-13 38.88 3.12 4.71 7.50 16.30 89.18 200.38 324.13 473.15
2023-08-20 32.67 2.62 3.96 6.30 13.70 74.93 168.36 272.33 397.53
2023-08-27 27.44 2.20 3.32 5.29 11.51 62.95 141.44 228.79 333.98
2023-09-03 23.05 1.85 2.79 4.45 9.67 52.88 118.82 192.20 280.57
2023-09-10 19.37 1.55 2.34 3.74 8.12 44.42 99.82 161.46 235.69
2023-09-17 16.27 1.31 1.97 3.14 6.82 37.32 83.85 135.63 197.99
2023-09-24 13.67 1.10 1.65 2.64 5.73 31.35 70.43 113.93 166.31
2023-10-01 17.47 1.40 2.12 3.37 7.33 40.07 90.04 145.64 212.60
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