Prediction 2907

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Goiás

Description:

Validation test 1 for UF=GO (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 277.27 67.42 85.09 110.99 172.07 454.44 696.09 913.40 1166.47
2022-10-16 322.00 78.30 98.82 128.90 199.83 527.75 808.38 1060.75 1354.64
2022-10-23 373.88 90.91 114.75 149.67 232.03 612.80 938.65 1231.68 1572.93
2022-10-30 434.04 105.54 133.21 173.75 269.37 711.39 1089.67 1429.85 1826.01
2022-11-06 503.73 122.49 154.60 201.65 312.62 825.62 1264.64 1659.45 2119.21
2022-11-13 584.40 142.10 179.35 233.94 362.68 957.83 1467.15 1925.18 2458.56
2022-11-20 677.63 164.77 207.97 271.27 420.54 1110.64 1701.22 2232.32 2850.80
2022-11-27 785.20 190.93 240.98 314.33 487.30 1286.95 1971.28 2586.69 3303.35
2022-12-04 909.01 221.03 278.98 363.89 564.14 1489.88 2282.11 2994.56 3824.23
2022-12-11 1051.05 255.57 322.57 420.75 652.29 1722.68 2638.70 3462.47 4421.78
2022-12-18 1213.28 295.02 372.36 485.69 752.97 1988.58 3045.98 3996.91 5104.28
2022-12-25 1397.48 339.81 428.89 559.43 867.29 2290.48 3508.42 4603.71 5879.20
2023-01-01 1604.96 390.26 492.57 642.49 996.05 2630.55 4029.32 5287.23 6752.09
2023-01-08 1836.19 446.48 563.53 735.05 1139.55 3009.53 4609.82 6048.96 7724.87
2023-01-15 2090.21 508.25 641.49 836.74 1297.20 3425.87 5247.55 6885.78 8793.53
2023-01-22 2363.95 574.81 725.51 946.32 1467.09 3874.54 5934.78 7787.56 9945.16
2023-01-29 2651.42 644.71 813.73 1061.40 1645.49 4345.70 6656.49 8734.58 11154.55
2023-02-05 2942.96 715.60 903.21 1178.11 1826.43 4823.54 7388.42 9695.00 12381.07
2023-02-12 3224.86 784.15 989.72 1290.96 2001.37 5285.58 8096.14 10623.66 13567.02
2023-02-19 3479.74 846.13 1067.95 1392.99 2159.55 5703.32 8736.01 11463.30 14639.29
2023-02-26 3688.09 896.79 1131.89 1476.39 2288.85 6044.81 9259.08 12149.66 15515.81
2023-03-05 3831.11 931.56 1175.78 1533.65 2377.62 6279.22 9618.14 12620.83 16117.51
2023-03-12 3894.35 946.94 1195.19 1558.96 2416.86 6382.87 9776.90 12829.15 16383.55
2023-03-19 3870.98 941.26 1188.02 1549.61 2402.36 6344.57 9718.24 12752.17 16285.25
2023-03-26 3763.56 915.14 1155.05 1506.61 2335.69 6168.51 9448.56 12398.30 15833.33
2023-04-02 3583.35 871.32 1099.74 1434.46 2223.85 5873.14 8996.12 11804.61 15075.16
2023-04-09 3347.59 813.99 1027.39 1340.09 2077.54 5486.73 8404.24 11027.95 14083.33
2023-04-16 3075.88 747.92 944.00 1231.32 1908.91 5041.39 7722.11 10132.87 12940.25
2023-04-23 2786.86 677.65 855.30 1115.62 1729.55 4567.69 6996.52 9180.75 11724.35
2023-04-30 2496.06 606.94 766.05 999.21 1549.07 4091.06 6266.44 8222.76 10500.93
2023-05-07 2215.00 538.59 679.79 886.69 1374.64 3630.40 5560.83 7296.86 9318.51
2023-05-14 1951.29 474.47 598.86 781.13 1210.99 3198.18 4898.79 6428.13 8209.09
2023-05-21 1709.26 415.62 524.58 684.24 1060.78 2801.50 4291.17 5630.83 7190.89
2023-05-28 1490.75 362.49 457.52 596.77 925.17 2443.36 3742.59 4910.99 6271.61
2023-06-04 1295.88 315.10 397.71 518.76 804.23 2123.96 3253.35 4269.01 5451.77
2023-06-11 1123.66 273.23 344.86 449.82 697.35 1841.69 2820.99 3701.68 4727.25
2023-06-18 972.50 236.47 298.46 389.30 603.54 1593.93 2441.49 3203.70 4091.31
2023-06-25 840.48 204.37 257.95 336.46 521.61 1377.56 2110.06 2768.80 3535.92
2023-07-02 725.62 176.44 222.70 290.48 450.33 1189.30 1821.71 2390.42 3052.71
2023-07-09 625.97 152.21 192.11 250.58 388.48 1025.97 1571.52 2062.13 2633.46
2023-07-16 539.69 131.23 165.63 216.04 334.93 884.55 1354.90 1777.88 2270.46
2023-07-23 465.09 113.09 142.74 186.18 288.64 762.29 1167.63 1532.15 1956.65
2023-07-30 400.68 97.43 122.97 160.40 248.66 656.72 1005.92 1319.96 1685.66
2023-08-06 345.11 83.91 105.91 138.15 214.17 565.63 866.40 1136.88 1451.86
2023-08-13 297.19 72.26 91.21 118.97 184.44 487.09 746.10 979.02 1250.26
2023-08-20 255.89 62.22 78.53 102.44 158.81 419.40 642.41 842.97 1076.52
2023-08-27 220.31 53.57 67.61 88.19 136.72 361.08 553.09 725.75 926.83
2023-09-03 189.66 46.12 58.21 75.92 117.70 310.85 476.14 624.79 797.89
2023-09-10 163.27 39.70 50.11 65.36 101.32 267.59 409.88 537.85 686.86
2023-09-17 140.54 34.17 43.13 56.26 87.22 230.35 352.83 462.98 591.25
2023-09-24 120.97 29.42 37.13 48.43 75.08 198.28 303.71 398.52 508.94
2023-10-01 238.72 58.05 73.27 95.56 148.15 391.27 599.33 786.43 1004.32
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