Prediction 2908
| Model | LNCC-SURGE-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Maranhão |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=MA (Model1 AR_p)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 8.00 | 1.52 | 1.99 | 2.76 | 4.59 | 14.08 | 23.78 | 32.89 | 41.96 |
| 2022-10-16 | 9.30 | 1.76 | 2.31 | 3.21 | 5.33 | 16.35 | 27.62 | 38.21 | 48.74 |
| 2022-10-23 | 10.80 | 2.05 | 2.68 | 3.73 | 6.19 | 19.00 | 32.09 | 44.39 | 56.62 |
| 2022-10-30 | 12.54 | 2.38 | 3.12 | 4.33 | 7.19 | 22.07 | 37.27 | 51.56 | 65.77 |
| 2022-11-06 | 14.57 | 2.76 | 3.62 | 5.03 | 8.35 | 25.63 | 43.29 | 59.89 | 76.40 |
| 2022-11-13 | 16.92 | 3.21 | 4.20 | 5.84 | 9.70 | 29.77 | 50.28 | 69.56 | 88.73 |
| 2022-11-20 | 19.65 | 3.72 | 4.88 | 6.78 | 11.27 | 34.57 | 58.39 | 80.78 | 103.04 |
| 2022-11-27 | 22.82 | 4.32 | 5.67 | 7.87 | 13.08 | 40.14 | 67.80 | 93.79 | 119.64 |
| 2022-12-04 | 26.49 | 5.02 | 6.58 | 9.14 | 15.19 | 46.60 | 78.70 | 108.87 | 138.88 |
| 2022-12-11 | 30.74 | 5.82 | 7.64 | 10.60 | 17.62 | 54.07 | 91.33 | 126.34 | 161.17 |
| 2022-12-18 | 35.65 | 6.76 | 8.86 | 12.30 | 20.44 | 62.73 | 105.95 | 146.56 | 186.96 |
| 2022-12-25 | 41.34 | 7.83 | 10.27 | 14.26 | 23.70 | 72.72 | 122.83 | 169.92 | 216.76 |
| 2023-01-01 | 47.89 | 9.07 | 11.90 | 16.52 | 27.46 | 84.25 | 142.30 | 196.85 | 251.12 |
| 2023-01-08 | 55.43 | 10.50 | 13.77 | 19.12 | 31.78 | 97.51 | 164.70 | 227.84 | 290.64 |
| 2023-01-15 | 64.07 | 12.14 | 15.92 | 22.10 | 36.73 | 112.71 | 190.37 | 263.35 | 335.94 |
| 2023-01-22 | 73.92 | 14.01 | 18.37 | 25.50 | 42.38 | 130.05 | 219.65 | 303.86 | 387.62 |
| 2023-01-29 | 85.09 | 16.12 | 21.14 | 29.36 | 48.79 | 149.70 | 252.85 | 349.78 | 446.20 |
| 2023-02-05 | 97.65 | 18.50 | 24.26 | 33.69 | 55.98 | 171.79 | 290.16 | 401.39 | 512.03 |
| 2023-02-12 | 111.60 | 21.14 | 27.73 | 38.50 | 63.98 | 196.33 | 331.61 | 458.73 | 585.19 |
| 2023-02-19 | 126.86 | 24.04 | 31.52 | 43.77 | 72.73 | 223.19 | 376.97 | 521.48 | 665.24 |
| 2023-02-26 | 143.23 | 27.14 | 35.59 | 49.42 | 82.12 | 251.97 | 425.60 | 588.74 | 751.04 |
| 2023-03-05 | 160.29 | 30.37 | 39.83 | 55.30 | 91.90 | 281.99 | 476.29 | 658.87 | 840.50 |
| 2023-03-12 | 177.42 | 33.62 | 44.08 | 61.21 | 101.72 | 312.13 | 527.21 | 729.31 | 930.35 |
| 2023-03-19 | 193.77 | 36.71 | 48.14 | 66.85 | 111.09 | 340.89 | 575.78 | 796.50 | 1016.07 |
| 2023-03-26 | 208.26 | 39.46 | 51.74 | 71.85 | 119.40 | 366.39 | 618.85 | 856.07 | 1092.06 |
| 2023-04-02 | 219.74 | 41.63 | 54.60 | 75.82 | 125.99 | 386.59 | 652.96 | 903.27 | 1152.27 |
| 2023-04-09 | 227.15 | 43.04 | 56.44 | 78.37 | 130.23 | 399.61 | 674.96 | 933.70 | 1191.09 |
| 2023-04-16 | 229.71 | 43.52 | 57.07 | 79.25 | 131.70 | 404.11 | 682.57 | 944.22 | 1204.51 |
| 2023-04-23 | 227.15 | 43.04 | 56.44 | 78.37 | 130.23 | 399.61 | 674.96 | 933.70 | 1191.09 |
| 2023-04-30 | 219.74 | 41.63 | 54.60 | 75.82 | 125.99 | 386.59 | 652.96 | 903.27 | 1152.27 |
| 2023-05-07 | 208.26 | 39.46 | 51.74 | 71.85 | 119.40 | 366.39 | 618.85 | 856.07 | 1092.06 |
| 2023-05-14 | 193.77 | 36.71 | 48.14 | 66.85 | 111.09 | 340.89 | 575.78 | 796.50 | 1016.07 |
| 2023-05-21 | 177.42 | 33.62 | 44.08 | 61.21 | 101.72 | 312.13 | 527.21 | 729.31 | 930.35 |
| 2023-05-28 | 160.29 | 30.37 | 39.83 | 55.30 | 91.90 | 281.99 | 476.29 | 658.87 | 840.50 |
| 2023-06-04 | 143.23 | 27.14 | 35.59 | 49.42 | 82.12 | 251.97 | 425.60 | 588.74 | 751.04 |
| 2023-06-11 | 126.86 | 24.04 | 31.52 | 43.77 | 72.73 | 223.19 | 376.97 | 521.48 | 665.24 |
| 2023-06-18 | 111.60 | 21.14 | 27.73 | 38.50 | 63.98 | 196.33 | 331.61 | 458.73 | 585.19 |
| 2023-06-25 | 97.65 | 18.50 | 24.26 | 33.69 | 55.98 | 171.79 | 290.16 | 401.39 | 512.03 |
| 2023-07-02 | 85.09 | 16.12 | 21.14 | 29.36 | 48.79 | 149.70 | 252.85 | 349.78 | 446.20 |
| 2023-07-09 | 73.92 | 14.01 | 18.37 | 25.50 | 42.38 | 130.05 | 219.65 | 303.86 | 387.62 |
| 2023-07-16 | 64.07 | 12.14 | 15.92 | 22.10 | 36.73 | 112.71 | 190.37 | 263.35 | 335.94 |
| 2023-07-23 | 55.43 | 10.50 | 13.77 | 19.12 | 31.78 | 97.51 | 164.70 | 227.84 | 290.64 |
| 2023-07-30 | 47.89 | 9.07 | 11.90 | 16.52 | 27.46 | 84.25 | 142.30 | 196.85 | 251.12 |
| 2023-08-06 | 41.34 | 7.83 | 10.27 | 14.26 | 23.70 | 72.72 | 122.83 | 169.92 | 216.76 |
| 2023-08-13 | 35.65 | 6.76 | 8.86 | 12.30 | 20.44 | 62.73 | 105.95 | 146.56 | 186.96 |
| 2023-08-20 | 30.74 | 5.82 | 7.64 | 10.60 | 17.62 | 54.07 | 91.33 | 126.34 | 161.17 |
| 2023-08-27 | 26.49 | 5.02 | 6.58 | 9.14 | 15.19 | 46.60 | 78.70 | 108.87 | 138.88 |
| 2023-09-03 | 22.82 | 4.32 | 5.67 | 7.87 | 13.08 | 40.14 | 67.80 | 93.79 | 119.64 |
| 2023-09-10 | 19.65 | 3.72 | 4.88 | 6.78 | 11.27 | 34.57 | 58.39 | 80.78 | 103.04 |
| 2023-09-17 | 16.92 | 3.21 | 4.20 | 5.84 | 9.70 | 29.77 | 50.28 | 69.56 | 88.73 |
| 2023-09-24 | 14.57 | 2.76 | 3.62 | 5.03 | 8.35 | 25.63 | 43.29 | 59.89 | 76.40 |
| 2023-10-01 | 6.89 | 1.30 | 1.71 | 2.38 | 3.95 | 12.12 | 20.47 | 28.31 | 36.12 |
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