Prediction 2928
| Model | LNCC-SURGE-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Amazonas |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=AM (Model1 AR_p)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 4.19 | 0.48 | 0.68 | 0.99 | 1.97 | 8.77 | 17.06 | 25.12 | 34.66 |
| 2023-10-15 | 5.15 | 0.59 | 0.83 | 1.22 | 2.42 | 10.76 | 20.93 | 30.81 | 42.52 |
| 2023-10-22 | 6.31 | 0.73 | 1.02 | 1.50 | 2.97 | 13.20 | 25.67 | 37.80 | 52.16 |
| 2023-10-29 | 7.74 | 0.89 | 1.25 | 1.83 | 3.64 | 16.19 | 31.49 | 46.37 | 63.99 |
| 2023-11-05 | 9.50 | 1.09 | 1.53 | 2.25 | 4.46 | 19.86 | 38.63 | 56.88 | 78.50 |
| 2023-11-12 | 11.65 | 1.34 | 1.88 | 2.76 | 5.47 | 24.37 | 47.39 | 69.78 | 96.29 |
| 2023-11-19 | 14.29 | 1.65 | 2.30 | 3.38 | 6.71 | 29.89 | 58.13 | 85.59 | 118.10 |
| 2023-11-26 | 17.53 | 2.02 | 2.83 | 4.15 | 8.23 | 36.65 | 71.29 | 104.97 | 144.84 |
| 2023-12-03 | 21.49 | 2.48 | 3.46 | 5.09 | 10.10 | 44.95 | 87.42 | 128.72 | 177.62 |
| 2023-12-10 | 26.35 | 3.03 | 4.25 | 6.24 | 12.38 | 55.11 | 107.17 | 157.81 | 217.76 |
| 2023-12-17 | 32.29 | 3.72 | 5.21 | 7.65 | 15.17 | 67.54 | 131.36 | 193.41 | 266.89 |
| 2023-12-24 | 39.56 | 4.56 | 6.38 | 9.37 | 18.59 | 82.74 | 160.91 | 236.93 | 326.95 |
| 2023-12-31 | 48.43 | 5.58 | 7.81 | 11.47 | 22.75 | 101.28 | 196.98 | 290.04 | 400.23 |
| 2024-01-07 | 59.22 | 6.82 | 9.55 | 14.03 | 27.82 | 123.85 | 240.87 | 354.67 | 489.41 |
| 2024-01-14 | 72.30 | 8.33 | 11.66 | 17.12 | 33.97 | 151.20 | 294.07 | 433.00 | 597.49 |
| 2024-01-21 | 88.05 | 10.14 | 14.19 | 20.86 | 41.37 | 184.15 | 358.15 | 527.35 | 727.69 |
| 2024-01-28 | 106.86 | 12.31 | 17.23 | 25.31 | 50.20 | 223.47 | 434.64 | 639.97 | 883.10 |
| 2024-02-04 | 129.00 | 14.86 | 20.80 | 30.55 | 60.60 | 269.78 | 524.70 | 772.58 | 1066.09 |
| 2024-02-11 | 154.54 | 17.80 | 24.91 | 36.60 | 72.60 | 323.20 | 628.59 | 925.56 | 1277.18 |
| 2024-02-18 | 183.12 | 21.09 | 29.52 | 43.37 | 86.03 | 382.97 | 744.85 | 1096.74 | 1513.40 |
| 2024-02-25 | 213.68 | 24.61 | 34.45 | 50.61 | 100.39 | 446.89 | 869.16 | 1279.78 | 1765.97 |
| 2024-03-03 | 244.20 | 28.13 | 39.37 | 57.84 | 114.73 | 510.71 | 993.29 | 1462.55 | 2018.19 |
| 2024-03-10 | 271.60 | 31.28 | 43.79 | 64.33 | 127.60 | 568.02 | 1104.75 | 1626.67 | 2244.65 |
| 2024-03-17 | 292.14 | 33.65 | 47.10 | 69.20 | 137.25 | 610.97 | 1188.28 | 1749.65 | 2414.36 |
| 2024-03-24 | 302.32 | 34.82 | 48.74 | 71.61 | 142.03 | 632.26 | 1229.69 | 1810.63 | 2498.50 |
| 2024-03-31 | 300.20 | 34.57 | 48.40 | 71.11 | 141.03 | 627.82 | 1221.05 | 1797.91 | 2480.95 |
| 2024-04-07 | 286.19 | 32.96 | 46.14 | 67.79 | 134.45 | 598.52 | 1164.07 | 1714.01 | 2365.17 |
| 2024-04-14 | 262.90 | 30.28 | 42.38 | 62.27 | 123.51 | 549.81 | 1069.34 | 1574.52 | 2172.69 |
| 2024-04-21 | 234.04 | 26.96 | 37.73 | 55.44 | 109.95 | 489.46 | 951.95 | 1401.69 | 1934.19 |
| 2024-04-28 | 203.21 | 23.40 | 32.76 | 48.13 | 95.47 | 424.99 | 826.57 | 1217.06 | 1679.43 |
| 2024-05-05 | 173.15 | 19.94 | 27.91 | 41.01 | 81.35 | 362.11 | 704.28 | 1037.00 | 1430.96 |
| 2024-05-12 | 145.52 | 16.76 | 23.46 | 34.47 | 68.36 | 304.33 | 591.89 | 871.52 | 1202.61 |
| 2024-05-19 | 121.11 | 13.95 | 19.52 | 28.69 | 56.90 | 253.29 | 492.63 | 725.36 | 1000.92 |
| 2024-05-26 | 100.12 | 11.53 | 16.14 | 23.72 | 47.04 | 209.39 | 407.25 | 599.65 | 827.46 |
| 2024-06-02 | 82.39 | 9.49 | 13.28 | 19.52 | 38.71 | 172.31 | 335.12 | 493.45 | 680.91 |
| 2024-06-09 | 67.59 | 7.78 | 10.90 | 16.01 | 31.75 | 141.35 | 274.91 | 404.78 | 558.56 |
| 2024-06-16 | 55.33 | 6.37 | 8.92 | 13.10 | 25.99 | 115.71 | 225.04 | 331.35 | 457.24 |
| 2024-06-23 | 45.23 | 5.21 | 7.29 | 10.71 | 21.25 | 94.58 | 183.96 | 270.86 | 373.77 |
| 2024-06-30 | 36.93 | 4.25 | 5.95 | 8.75 | 17.35 | 77.24 | 150.23 | 221.21 | 305.24 |
| 2024-07-07 | 30.14 | 3.47 | 4.86 | 7.14 | 14.16 | 63.04 | 122.61 | 180.54 | 249.13 |
| 2024-07-14 | 24.59 | 2.83 | 3.96 | 5.83 | 11.55 | 51.43 | 100.03 | 147.29 | 203.24 |
| 2024-07-21 | 20.06 | 2.31 | 3.23 | 4.75 | 9.42 | 41.95 | 81.58 | 120.12 | 165.76 |
| 2024-07-28 | 16.36 | 1.88 | 2.64 | 3.87 | 7.68 | 34.20 | 66.53 | 97.95 | 135.17 |
| 2024-08-04 | 13.34 | 1.54 | 2.15 | 3.16 | 6.26 | 27.89 | 54.24 | 79.87 | 110.21 |
| 2024-08-11 | 10.87 | 1.25 | 1.75 | 2.58 | 5.11 | 22.74 | 44.22 | 65.11 | 89.85 |
| 2024-08-18 | 8.86 | 1.02 | 1.43 | 2.10 | 4.16 | 18.54 | 36.05 | 53.08 | 73.25 |
| 2024-08-25 | 7.22 | 0.83 | 1.16 | 1.71 | 3.39 | 15.11 | 29.39 | 43.27 | 59.71 |
| 2024-09-01 | 5.89 | 0.68 | 0.95 | 1.40 | 2.77 | 12.32 | 23.96 | 35.27 | 48.67 |
| 2024-09-08 | 4.80 | 0.55 | 0.77 | 1.14 | 2.26 | 10.04 | 19.53 | 28.75 | 39.68 |
| 2024-09-15 | 3.91 | 0.45 | 0.63 | 0.93 | 1.84 | 8.18 | 15.92 | 23.44 | 32.34 |
| 2024-09-22 | 3.19 | 0.37 | 0.51 | 0.76 | 1.50 | 6.67 | 12.98 | 19.11 | 26.36 |
| 2024-09-29 | 3.42 | 0.39 | 0.55 | 0.81 | 1.61 | 7.15 | 13.91 | 20.48 | 28.25 |
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