Prediction 2929

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Amapá

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=AP (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 1.60 0.16 0.23 0.36 0.72 3.55 7.07 10.84 15.51
2023-10-15 1.86 0.19 0.27 0.42 0.84 4.12 8.21 12.59 18.01
2023-10-22 2.16 0.22 0.31 0.49 0.98 4.79 9.54 14.63 20.92
2023-10-29 2.51 0.25 0.36 0.57 1.13 5.56 11.07 16.99 24.30
2023-11-05 2.91 0.29 0.42 0.66 1.32 6.46 12.86 19.73 28.22
2023-11-12 3.38 0.34 0.48 0.76 1.53 7.50 14.93 22.91 32.77
2023-11-19 3.92 0.39 0.56 0.88 1.78 8.70 17.34 26.59 38.05
2023-11-26 4.55 0.46 0.65 1.03 2.06 10.10 20.12 30.86 44.16
2023-12-03 5.28 0.53 0.76 1.19 2.39 11.72 23.34 35.81 51.23
2023-12-10 6.13 0.61 0.88 1.38 2.77 13.59 27.07 41.52 59.40
2023-12-17 7.10 0.71 1.02 1.60 3.21 15.75 31.37 48.11 68.83
2023-12-24 8.22 0.82 1.18 1.85 3.72 18.23 36.31 55.70 79.69
2023-12-31 9.50 0.95 1.36 2.14 4.30 21.08 41.99 64.41 92.15
2024-01-07 10.97 1.10 1.57 2.47 4.96 24.34 48.48 74.36 106.38
2024-01-14 12.64 1.26 1.81 2.85 5.72 28.04 55.84 85.65 122.54
2024-01-21 14.52 1.45 2.08 3.27 6.57 32.20 64.14 98.38 140.76
2024-01-28 16.61 1.66 2.38 3.75 7.52 36.85 73.40 112.58 161.07
2024-02-04 18.91 1.89 2.71 4.26 8.56 41.96 83.57 128.18 183.39
2024-02-11 21.40 2.14 3.07 4.82 9.68 47.47 94.55 145.02 207.48
2024-02-18 24.01 2.40 3.44 5.41 10.86 53.26 106.09 162.72 232.80
2024-02-25 26.66 2.67 3.82 6.01 12.06 59.15 117.81 180.70 258.52
2024-03-03 29.23 2.92 4.19 6.59 13.23 64.85 129.17 198.13 283.46
2024-03-10 31.56 3.16 4.52 7.12 14.28 70.03 139.48 213.94 306.08
2024-03-17 33.48 3.35 4.80 7.55 15.15 74.28 147.95 226.93 324.67
2024-03-24 34.81 3.48 4.99 7.85 15.75 77.23 153.83 235.95 337.57
2024-03-31 35.42 3.54 5.07 7.99 16.03 78.58 156.52 240.07 343.46
2024-04-07 35.24 3.53 5.05 7.95 15.95 78.18 155.73 238.86 341.73
2024-04-14 34.30 3.43 4.91 7.73 15.52 76.08 151.55 232.45 332.56
2024-04-21 32.68 3.27 4.68 7.37 14.79 72.50 144.41 221.51 316.91
2024-04-28 30.55 3.06 4.38 6.89 13.83 67.78 135.02 207.09 296.28
2024-05-05 28.09 2.81 4.03 6.34 12.71 62.32 124.14 190.41 272.42
2024-05-12 25.47 2.55 3.65 5.74 11.52 56.50 112.54 172.61 246.95
2024-05-19 22.82 2.28 3.27 5.15 10.33 50.63 100.84 154.67 221.28
2024-05-26 20.26 2.03 2.90 4.57 9.17 44.94 89.52 137.30 196.44
2024-06-02 17.85 1.79 2.56 4.03 8.08 39.60 78.88 120.99 173.10
2024-06-09 15.64 1.56 2.24 3.53 7.08 34.70 69.11 106.01 151.66
2024-06-16 13.64 1.37 1.95 3.08 6.17 30.27 60.29 92.47 132.29
2024-06-23 11.86 1.19 1.70 2.67 5.37 26.31 52.41 80.39 115.01
2024-06-30 10.29 1.03 1.47 2.32 4.65 22.82 45.45 69.71 99.74
2024-07-07 8.90 0.89 1.28 2.01 4.03 19.75 39.34 60.34 86.33
2024-07-14 7.69 0.77 1.10 1.74 3.48 17.07 34.00 52.15 74.61
2024-07-21 6.64 0.66 0.95 1.50 3.01 14.74 29.36 45.03 64.42
2024-07-28 5.73 0.57 0.82 1.29 2.59 12.71 25.32 38.84 55.57
2024-08-04 4.94 0.49 0.71 1.11 2.24 10.96 21.83 33.49 47.91
2024-08-11 4.26 0.43 0.61 0.96 1.93 9.45 18.82 28.86 41.29
2024-08-18 3.67 0.37 0.53 0.83 1.66 8.14 16.21 24.86 35.57
2024-08-25 3.16 0.32 0.45 0.71 1.43 7.01 13.96 21.42 30.64
2024-09-01 2.72 0.27 0.39 0.61 1.23 6.04 12.02 18.44 26.39
2024-09-08 2.34 0.23 0.34 0.53 1.06 5.20 10.35 15.88 22.72
2024-09-15 2.02 0.20 0.29 0.45 0.91 4.47 8.91 13.67 19.56
2024-09-22 1.74 0.17 0.25 0.39 0.79 3.85 7.67 11.77 16.84
2024-09-29 1.38 0.14 0.20 0.31 0.62 3.05 6.08 9.33 13.35
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