Prediction 2931

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Ceará

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=CE (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 67.64 12.86 16.86 22.80 38.39 119.34 195.35 266.61 350.23
2023-10-15 79.22 15.06 19.74 26.70 44.96 139.76 228.78 312.24 410.16
2023-10-22 92.77 17.63 23.12 31.27 52.65 163.67 267.91 365.64 480.31
2023-10-29 108.62 20.65 27.07 36.62 61.64 191.64 313.69 428.13 562.39
2023-11-05 127.17 24.17 31.69 42.87 72.17 224.35 367.25 501.22 658.40
2023-11-12 148.84 28.29 37.09 50.17 84.47 262.59 429.85 586.66 770.63
2023-11-19 174.16 33.11 43.40 58.71 98.84 307.27 502.97 686.45 901.73
2023-11-26 203.71 38.72 50.76 68.67 115.60 359.39 588.30 802.91 1054.70
2023-12-03 238.13 45.27 59.34 80.27 135.14 420.13 687.72 938.60 1232.94
2023-12-10 278.17 52.88 69.31 93.77 157.86 490.76 803.33 1096.39 1440.22
2023-12-17 324.60 61.70 80.88 109.42 184.21 572.67 937.42 1279.39 1680.61
2023-12-24 378.25 71.90 94.25 127.50 214.65 667.32 1092.36 1490.85 1958.38
2023-12-31 439.93 83.62 109.62 148.29 249.66 776.14 1270.48 1733.95 2277.72
2024-01-07 510.35 97.01 127.17 172.03 289.62 900.38 1473.85 2011.51 2642.33
2024-01-14 589.99 112.15 147.02 198.88 334.82 1040.90 1703.87 2325.43 3054.70
2024-01-21 678.93 129.05 169.18 228.86 385.29 1197.79 1960.69 2675.95 3515.14
2024-01-28 776.50 147.60 193.49 261.75 440.66 1369.93 2242.47 3060.52 4020.32
2024-02-04 881.02 167.47 219.53 296.98 499.97 1554.33 2544.32 3472.48 4561.47
2024-02-11 989.38 188.07 246.54 333.51 561.47 1745.51 2857.27 3899.60 5122.53
2024-02-18 1096.78 208.48 273.30 369.71 622.42 1934.99 3167.44 4322.91 5678.60
2024-02-25 1196.67 227.47 298.19 403.39 679.11 2111.23 3455.92 4716.63 6195.80
2024-03-03 1281.24 243.54 319.26 431.89 727.10 2260.42 3700.13 5049.94 6633.62
2024-03-10 1342.44 255.18 334.51 452.52 761.83 2368.39 3876.87 5291.15 6950.48
2024-03-17 1373.60 261.10 342.28 463.03 779.51 2423.37 3966.88 5413.98 7111.84
2024-03-24 1371.05 260.61 341.64 462.17 778.06 2418.87 3959.50 5403.92 7098.62
2024-03-31 1335.09 253.78 332.68 450.04 757.66 2355.43 3855.65 5262.18 6912.43
2024-04-07 1269.93 241.39 316.45 428.08 720.68 2240.48 3667.48 5005.38 6575.09
2024-04-14 1182.57 224.79 294.68 398.63 671.10 2086.34 3415.17 4661.02 6122.74
2024-04-21 1081.08 205.50 269.39 364.42 613.51 1907.29 3122.09 4261.02 5597.30
2024-04-28 973.16 184.98 242.50 328.04 552.26 1716.90 2810.43 3835.67 5038.55
2024-05-05 865.11 164.44 215.57 291.62 490.94 1526.26 2498.38 3409.78 4479.10
2024-05-12 761.46 144.74 189.74 256.68 432.13 1343.41 2199.06 3001.27 3942.49
2024-05-19 665.10 126.43 165.73 224.20 377.44 1173.41 1920.78 2621.47 3443.58
2024-05-26 577.53 109.78 143.91 194.68 327.75 1018.91 1667.88 2276.32 2990.19
2024-06-02 499.28 94.90 124.41 168.30 283.34 880.85 1441.89 1967.88 2585.02
2024-06-09 430.20 81.77 107.20 145.02 244.14 758.98 1242.39 1695.61 2227.36
2024-06-16 369.77 70.29 92.14 124.64 209.84 652.36 1067.86 1457.41 1914.46
2024-06-23 317.24 60.30 79.05 106.94 180.03 559.70 916.18 1250.40 1642.53
2024-06-30 271.82 51.67 67.73 91.63 154.26 479.56 784.99 1071.36 1407.34
2024-07-07 232.67 44.23 57.98 78.43 132.04 410.48 671.93 917.05 1204.64
2024-07-14 199.01 37.83 49.59 67.09 112.94 351.11 574.74 784.40 1030.40
2024-07-21 170.14 32.34 42.40 57.35 96.55 300.16 491.35 670.59 880.89
2024-07-28 145.40 27.64 36.23 49.01 82.51 256.51 419.89 573.07 752.78
2024-08-04 124.22 23.61 30.95 41.87 70.49 219.15 358.73 489.59 643.13
2024-08-11 106.10 20.17 26.44 35.77 60.21 187.19 306.41 418.19 549.33
2024-08-18 90.61 17.22 22.58 30.54 51.42 159.86 261.68 357.14 469.15
2024-08-25 77.38 14.71 19.28 26.08 43.91 136.51 223.46 304.98 400.62
2024-09-01 66.07 12.56 16.46 22.27 37.49 116.56 190.81 260.41 342.08
2024-09-08 56.41 10.72 14.06 19.02 32.01 99.52 162.91 222.34 292.07
2024-09-15 48.16 9.16 12.00 16.24 27.33 84.97 139.09 189.83 249.37
2024-09-22 41.12 7.82 10.25 13.86 23.34 72.55 118.75 162.07 212.90
2024-09-29 57.76 10.98 14.39 19.47 32.78 101.90 166.80 227.64 299.03
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