Prediction 2932

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Distrito Federal

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=DF (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 25.82 2.32 3.34 5.41 11.58 58.97 124.05 198.15 293.51
2023-10-15 30.47 2.74 3.94 6.38 13.67 69.60 146.41 233.86 346.41
2023-10-22 35.96 3.23 4.65 7.53 16.13 82.14 172.78 276.00 408.82
2023-10-29 42.44 3.82 5.49 8.89 19.03 96.93 203.90 325.69 482.43
2023-11-05 50.07 4.50 6.48 10.49 22.46 114.37 240.58 384.29 569.23
2023-11-12 59.07 5.31 7.64 12.37 26.50 134.92 283.82 453.36 671.53
2023-11-19 69.67 6.27 9.01 14.59 31.25 159.13 334.76 534.72 792.05
2023-11-26 82.15 7.39 10.63 17.20 36.85 187.63 394.71 630.48 933.89
2023-12-03 96.82 8.71 12.53 20.28 43.43 221.14 465.19 743.07 1100.66
2023-12-10 114.04 10.26 14.75 23.88 51.15 260.47 547.93 875.23 1296.43
2023-12-17 134.21 12.07 17.36 28.11 60.20 306.54 644.84 1030.03 1525.72
2023-12-24 157.77 14.19 20.41 33.04 70.76 360.33 758.00 1210.79 1793.47
2023-12-31 185.16 16.65 23.95 38.77 83.05 422.88 889.59 1420.98 2104.80
2024-01-07 216.82 19.50 28.05 45.40 97.25 495.19 1041.70 1663.95 2464.70
2024-01-14 253.12 22.77 32.74 53.01 113.53 578.10 1216.11 1942.55 2877.36
2024-01-21 294.27 26.47 38.07 61.63 131.99 672.10 1413.84 2258.39 3345.21
2024-01-28 340.21 30.60 44.01 71.25 152.59 777.01 1634.53 2610.92 3867.38
2024-02-04 390.38 35.11 50.50 81.75 175.10 891.61 1875.59 2995.98 4437.74
2024-02-11 443.57 39.90 57.38 92.89 198.95 1013.08 2131.13 3404.16 5042.35
2024-02-18 497.64 44.76 64.38 104.22 223.21 1136.59 2390.95 3819.18 5657.09
2024-02-25 549.48 49.42 71.09 115.07 246.46 1254.99 2640.02 4217.03 6246.40
2024-03-03 595.07 53.52 76.98 124.62 266.90 1359.09 2859.01 4566.84 6764.55
2024-03-10 629.95 56.66 81.50 131.92 282.55 1438.77 3026.62 4834.57 7161.13
2024-03-17 650.14 58.48 84.11 136.15 291.60 1484.88 3123.61 4989.51 7390.62
2024-03-24 653.06 58.74 84.48 136.76 292.91 1491.55 3137.65 5011.93 7423.83
2024-03-31 638.33 57.42 82.58 133.68 286.31 1457.91 3066.87 4898.86 7256.36
2024-04-07 607.86 54.67 78.64 127.30 272.64 1388.31 2920.46 4665.00 6909.95
2024-04-14 565.28 50.84 73.13 118.38 253.54 1291.07 2715.92 4338.27 6425.99
2024-04-21 515.01 46.32 66.63 107.85 231.00 1176.26 2474.39 3952.47 5854.52
2024-04-28 461.27 41.49 59.67 96.60 206.89 1053.52 2216.20 3540.04 5243.62
2024-05-05 407.51 36.65 52.72 85.34 182.78 930.74 1957.91 3127.47 4632.50
2024-05-12 356.18 32.04 46.08 74.59 159.76 813.50 1711.28 2733.51 4048.97
2024-05-19 308.77 27.77 39.94 64.66 138.49 705.22 1483.51 2369.68 3510.04
2024-05-26 266.03 23.93 34.42 55.71 119.32 607.59 1278.14 2041.64 3024.14
2024-06-02 228.15 20.52 29.52 47.78 102.33 521.09 1096.17 1750.97 2593.59
2024-06-09 195.01 17.54 25.23 40.84 87.47 445.40 936.94 1496.62 2216.85
2024-06-16 166.27 14.96 21.51 34.82 74.58 379.76 798.87 1276.08 1890.17
2024-06-23 141.52 12.73 18.31 29.64 63.47 323.22 679.93 1086.08 1608.74
2024-06-30 120.29 10.82 15.56 25.19 53.95 274.74 577.94 923.17 1367.44
2024-07-07 102.15 9.19 13.22 21.39 45.82 233.31 490.79 783.97 1161.24
2024-07-14 86.69 7.80 11.21 18.15 38.88 197.99 416.50 665.30 985.46
2024-07-21 73.53 6.61 9.51 15.40 32.98 167.94 353.29 564.32 835.89
2024-07-28 62.35 5.61 8.07 13.06 27.97 142.40 299.56 478.50 708.77
2024-08-04 52.85 4.75 6.84 11.07 23.71 120.72 253.94 405.63 600.83
2024-08-11 44.80 4.03 5.80 9.38 20.09 102.31 215.23 343.79 509.24
2024-08-18 37.96 3.41 4.91 7.95 17.03 86.70 182.39 291.34 431.55
2024-08-25 32.17 2.89 4.16 6.74 14.43 73.47 154.55 246.87 365.68
2024-09-01 27.26 2.45 3.53 5.71 12.23 62.25 130.95 209.18 309.84
2024-09-08 23.09 2.08 2.99 4.84 10.36 52.74 110.95 177.23 262.52
2024-09-15 19.57 1.76 2.53 4.10 8.78 44.69 94.00 150.16 222.42
2024-09-22 16.58 1.49 2.14 3.47 7.43 37.86 79.64 127.21 188.43
2024-09-29 21.88 1.97 2.83 4.58 9.81 49.96 105.10 167.89 248.68
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