Prediction 4138
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso do Sul |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=MS (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 143.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 63.0 | 263.0 | 420.0 | 545.0 | 677.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 151.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 67.0 | 278.0 | 447.0 | 582.0 | 725.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 151.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 65.0 | 281.0 | 455.0 | 595.0 | 745.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 169.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 75.0 | 312.0 | 504.0 | 660.0 | 828.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 212.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 37.0 | 102.0 | 382.0 | 612.0 | 800.0 | 1003.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 240.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 47.0 | 118.0 | 429.0 | 688.0 | 899.0 | 1129.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 301.0 | 9.0 | 34.0 | 71.0 | 156.0 | 528.0 | 842.0 | 1100.0 | 1380.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 323.0 | 12.0 | 39.0 | 78.0 | 168.0 | 568.0 | 907.0 | 1188.0 | 1494.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 362.0 | 20.0 | 49.0 | 92.0 | 191.0 | 634.0 | 1014.0 | 1329.0 | 1675.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 373.0 | 21.0 | 51.0 | 94.0 | 196.0 | 656.0 | 1054.0 | 1387.0 | 1751.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 315.0 | 4.0 | 30.0 | 68.0 | 158.0 | 568.0 | 925.0 | 1224.0 | 1554.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 301.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 60.0 | 148.0 | 548.0 | 900.0 | 1196.0 | 1523.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 460.0 | 36.0 | 71.0 | 122.0 | 244.0 | 812.0 | 1314.0 | 1738.0 | 2207.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 586.0 | 64.0 | 107.0 | 169.0 | 319.0 | 1023.0 | 1648.0 | 2179.0 | 2768.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 713.0 | 92.0 | 142.0 | 216.0 | 394.0 | 1237.0 | 1992.0 | 2634.0 | 3349.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 813.0 | 112.0 | 168.0 | 252.0 | 453.0 | 1409.0 | 2272.0 | 3009.0 | 3831.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 898.0 | 129.0 | 190.0 | 281.0 | 501.0 | 1557.0 | 2515.0 | 3336.0 | 4255.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 929.0 | 133.0 | 196.0 | 290.0 | 517.0 | 1617.0 | 2620.0 | 3483.0 | 4450.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 964.0 | 138.0 | 203.0 | 299.0 | 535.0 | 1683.0 | 2736.0 | 3644.0 | 4664.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 974.0 | 137.0 | 202.0 | 300.0 | 538.0 | 1706.0 | 2783.0 | 3715.0 | 4763.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 1045.0 | 150.0 | 219.0 | 323.0 | 578.0 | 1834.0 | 2998.0 | 4008.0 | 5147.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 1048.0 | 148.0 | 217.0 | 321.0 | 577.0 | 1846.0 | 3029.0 | 4058.0 | 5221.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 1107.0 | 158.0 | 230.0 | 340.0 | 610.0 | 1954.0 | 3214.0 | 4312.0 | 5555.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 1102.0 | 154.0 | 226.0 | 335.0 | 604.0 | 1952.0 | 3221.0 | 4330.0 | 5588.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 1097.0 | 150.0 | 222.0 | 330.0 | 599.0 | 1950.0 | 3228.0 | 4347.0 | 5619.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 1078.0 | 144.0 | 214.0 | 321.0 | 585.0 | 1924.0 | 3196.0 | 4312.0 | 5582.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 1026.0 | 131.0 | 198.0 | 300.0 | 553.0 | 1842.0 | 3071.0 | 4152.0 | 5384.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 978.0 | 119.0 | 183.0 | 281.0 | 523.0 | 1764.0 | 2951.0 | 3999.0 | 5194.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 871.0 | 96.0 | 153.0 | 241.0 | 460.0 | 1584.0 | 2664.0 | 3619.0 | 4710.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 805.0 | 81.0 | 135.0 | 216.0 | 420.0 | 1475.0 | 2491.0 | 3391.0 | 4422.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 680.0 | 55.0 | 101.0 | 171.0 | 348.0 | 1261.0 | 2146.0 | 2930.0 | 3829.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 522.0 | 23.0 | 59.0 | 115.0 | 256.0 | 988.0 | 1700.0 | 2332.0 | 3058.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 413.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 77.0 | 193.0 | 799.0 | 1390.0 | 1916.0 | 2521.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 361.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 58.0 | 162.0 | 710.0 | 1245.0 | 1723.0 | 2272.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 294.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 124.0 | 594.0 | 1055.0 | 1467.0 | 1941.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 256.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 102.0 | 529.0 | 949.0 | 1325.0 | 1758.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 236.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 90.0 | 495.0 | 894.0 | 1251.0 | 1664.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 203.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 71.0 | 438.0 | 801.0 | 1127.0 | 1505.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 169.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 51.0 | 380.0 | 707.0 | 1001.0 | 1341.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 149.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 345.0 | 650.0 | 926.0 | 1245.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 136.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 324.0 | 617.0 | 882.0 | 1189.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 118.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 293.0 | 566.0 | 813.0 | 1101.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 115.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 287.0 | 559.0 | 805.0 | 1092.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 104.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 269.0 | 530.0 | 766.0 | 1043.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 274.0 | 539.0 | 780.0 | 1062.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 256.0 | 510.0 | 742.0 | 1013.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 264.0 | 524.0 | 763.0 | 1042.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 248.0 | 498.0 | 728.0 | 997.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 104.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 274.0 | 545.0 | 793.0 | 1085.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 267.0 | 535.0 | 780.0 | 1069.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 103.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 274.0 | 547.0 | 798.0 | 1094.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 104.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 277.0 | 553.0 | 808.0 | 1108.0 |
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