Prediction 4151
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Sergipe |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=SE (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 146.0 | 23.0 | 38.0 | 57.0 | 94.0 | 212.0 | 286.0 | 339.0 | 391.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 144.0 | 21.0 | 36.0 | 54.0 | 92.0 | 211.0 | 286.0 | 340.0 | 392.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 164.0 | 30.0 | 45.0 | 66.0 | 107.0 | 237.0 | 320.0 | 380.0 | 438.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 188.0 | 40.0 | 57.0 | 80.0 | 124.0 | 268.0 | 360.0 | 426.0 | 490.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 193.0 | 42.0 | 59.0 | 82.0 | 128.0 | 277.0 | 372.0 | 440.0 | 507.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 183.0 | 36.0 | 53.0 | 75.0 | 120.0 | 265.0 | 358.0 | 425.0 | 491.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 189.0 | 37.0 | 55.0 | 78.0 | 124.0 | 273.0 | 369.0 | 438.0 | 506.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 177.0 | 31.0 | 48.0 | 70.0 | 114.0 | 258.0 | 352.0 | 419.0 | 485.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 151.0 | 18.0 | 33.0 | 54.0 | 94.0 | 226.0 | 311.0 | 373.0 | 434.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 132.0 | 8.0 | 22.0 | 41.0 | 78.0 | 201.0 | 280.0 | 338.0 | 395.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 25.0 | 58.0 | 167.0 | 239.0 | 290.0 | 341.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 94.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 49.0 | 153.0 | 221.0 | 270.0 | 319.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 97.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 51.0 | 157.0 | 226.0 | 276.0 | 326.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 20.0 | 53.0 | 161.0 | 231.0 | 283.0 | 334.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 48.0 | 153.0 | 222.0 | 272.0 | 321.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 50.0 | 157.0 | 228.0 | 279.0 | 330.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 98.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 51.0 | 160.0 | 232.0 | 284.0 | 335.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 23.0 | 57.0 | 171.0 | 245.0 | 300.0 | 354.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 110.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 25.0 | 60.0 | 175.0 | 252.0 | 307.0 | 362.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 53.0 | 164.0 | 238.0 | 291.0 | 345.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 107.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 23.0 | 58.0 | 173.0 | 249.0 | 304.0 | 360.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 53.0 | 165.0 | 239.0 | 293.0 | 347.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 102.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 53.0 | 166.0 | 241.0 | 295.0 | 349.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 103.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 54.0 | 167.0 | 242.0 | 297.0 | 352.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 102.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 53.0 | 167.0 | 242.0 | 297.0 | 351.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 26.0 | 62.0 | 181.0 | 261.0 | 319.0 | 377.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 116.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 28.0 | 64.0 | 185.0 | 266.0 | 325.0 | 384.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 120.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 30.0 | 67.0 | 191.0 | 273.0 | 333.0 | 394.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 109.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 23.0 | 58.0 | 176.0 | 254.0 | 312.0 | 369.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 133.0 | 4.0 | 18.0 | 37.0 | 76.0 | 208.0 | 296.0 | 360.0 | 424.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 146.0 | 9.0 | 25.0 | 45.0 | 86.0 | 225.0 | 318.0 | 386.0 | 453.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 154.0 | 13.0 | 28.0 | 49.0 | 92.0 | 235.0 | 331.0 | 401.0 | 471.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 153.0 | 12.0 | 28.0 | 49.0 | 91.0 | 235.0 | 331.0 | 401.0 | 471.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 146.0 | 9.0 | 24.0 | 45.0 | 86.0 | 226.0 | 319.0 | 387.0 | 455.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 148.0 | 10.0 | 25.0 | 46.0 | 87.0 | 228.0 | 322.0 | 390.0 | 459.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 140.0 | 6.0 | 21.0 | 41.0 | 81.0 | 217.0 | 308.0 | 375.0 | 441.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 140.0 | 6.0 | 21.0 | 41.0 | 81.0 | 218.0 | 309.0 | 375.0 | 442.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 144.0 | 8.0 | 23.0 | 43.0 | 84.0 | 223.0 | 316.0 | 384.0 | 452.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 151.0 | 11.0 | 26.0 | 47.0 | 89.0 | 233.0 | 329.0 | 399.0 | 469.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 146.0 | 8.0 | 24.0 | 44.0 | 86.0 | 226.0 | 321.0 | 390.0 | 459.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 133.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 36.0 | 75.0 | 209.0 | 299.0 | 364.0 | 430.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 138.0 | 4.0 | 19.0 | 39.0 | 79.0 | 216.0 | 308.0 | 375.0 | 443.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 128.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 33.0 | 72.0 | 203.0 | 291.0 | 356.0 | 421.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 128.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 33.0 | 71.0 | 203.0 | 291.0 | 356.0 | 421.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 122.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 29.0 | 67.0 | 195.0 | 281.0 | 344.0 | 408.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 24.0 | 60.0 | 183.0 | 266.0 | 326.0 | 387.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 104.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 53.0 | 171.0 | 251.0 | 309.0 | 367.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 111.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 22.0 | 58.0 | 181.0 | 263.0 | 323.0 | 384.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 105.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 54.0 | 173.0 | 254.0 | 313.0 | 372.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 97.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 48.0 | 162.0 | 239.0 | 296.0 | 352.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 39.0 | 146.0 | 218.0 | 271.0 | 325.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 84.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 38.0 | 145.0 | 217.0 | 270.0 | 323.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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