Prediction 4173
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Rio Grande do Norte |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=RN (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 127.0 | 173.0 | 221.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 137.0 | 186.0 | 237.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 137.0 | 187.0 | 238.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 68.0 | 132.0 | 182.0 | 233.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 139.0 | 192.0 | 246.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 150.0 | 205.0 | 262.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 155.0 | 212.0 | 272.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84.0 | 159.0 | 218.0 | 280.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 164.0 | 225.0 | 289.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 90.0 | 169.0 | 232.0 | 298.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 160.0 | 221.0 | 285.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 165.0 | 229.0 | 295.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 150.0 | 259.0 | 345.0 | 436.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 177.0 | 298.0 | 394.0 | 497.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 103.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 205.0 | 339.0 | 446.0 | 559.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 120.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 46.0 | 231.0 | 378.0 | 495.0 | 620.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 156.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 70.0 | 286.0 | 459.0 | 597.0 | 745.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 165.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 76.0 | 301.0 | 482.0 | 627.0 | 782.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 194.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 33.0 | 94.0 | 345.0 | 547.0 | 709.0 | 882.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 228.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 48.0 | 116.0 | 398.0 | 626.0 | 809.0 | 1005.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 271.0 | 9.0 | 33.0 | 67.0 | 144.0 | 464.0 | 723.0 | 932.0 | 1155.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 298.0 | 17.0 | 42.0 | 79.0 | 161.0 | 507.0 | 788.0 | 1014.0 | 1257.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 329.0 | 25.0 | 53.0 | 92.0 | 181.0 | 555.0 | 860.0 | 1106.0 | 1369.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 354.0 | 32.0 | 61.0 | 102.0 | 197.0 | 595.0 | 919.0 | 1181.0 | 1463.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 360.0 | 33.0 | 62.0 | 104.0 | 200.0 | 606.0 | 937.0 | 1205.0 | 1493.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 455.0 | 60.0 | 95.0 | 146.0 | 262.0 | 752.0 | 1154.0 | 1479.0 | 1830.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 508.0 | 74.0 | 113.0 | 168.0 | 295.0 | 835.0 | 1277.0 | 1636.0 | 2022.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 509.0 | 74.0 | 113.0 | 168.0 | 296.0 | 839.0 | 1284.0 | 1647.0 | 2037.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 484.0 | 66.0 | 103.0 | 157.0 | 279.0 | 801.0 | 1230.0 | 1580.0 | 1956.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 510.0 | 73.0 | 111.0 | 167.0 | 295.0 | 842.0 | 1292.0 | 1659.0 | 2055.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 487.0 | 66.0 | 103.0 | 157.0 | 280.0 | 808.0 | 1244.0 | 1599.0 | 1983.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 484.0 | 64.0 | 101.0 | 155.0 | 278.0 | 804.0 | 1240.0 | 1595.0 | 1979.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 439.0 | 51.0 | 85.0 | 134.0 | 248.0 | 734.0 | 1137.0 | 1466.0 | 1822.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 411.0 | 43.0 | 75.0 | 122.0 | 229.0 | 692.0 | 1076.0 | 1389.0 | 1728.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 384.0 | 35.0 | 66.0 | 110.0 | 212.0 | 651.0 | 1016.0 | 1315.0 | 1637.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 356.0 | 27.0 | 56.0 | 97.0 | 194.0 | 609.0 | 954.0 | 1236.0 | 1542.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 333.0 | 20.0 | 47.0 | 87.0 | 178.0 | 573.0 | 901.0 | 1170.0 | 1461.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 294.0 | 9.0 | 34.0 | 70.0 | 153.0 | 514.0 | 815.0 | 1062.0 | 1330.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 286.0 | 6.0 | 30.0 | 66.0 | 148.0 | 503.0 | 800.0 | 1044.0 | 1309.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 266.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 57.0 | 134.0 | 473.0 | 756.0 | 989.0 | 1242.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 245.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 47.0 | 120.0 | 440.0 | 709.0 | 930.0 | 1170.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 207.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 31.0 | 96.0 | 382.0 | 623.0 | 821.0 | 1037.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 196.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 88.0 | 365.0 | 598.0 | 791.0 | 1000.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 198.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 89.0 | 369.0 | 605.0 | 800.0 | 1012.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 175.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 75.0 | 333.0 | 552.0 | 733.0 | 931.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 145.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 55.0 | 286.0 | 482.0 | 644.0 | 820.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 111.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.0 | 233.0 | 402.0 | 542.0 | 694.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 109.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 230.0 | 399.0 | 538.0 | 691.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 99.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 215.0 | 377.0 | 510.0 | 656.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 86.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 195.0 | 346.0 | 472.0 | 609.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 170.0 | 309.0 | 424.0 | 550.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 174.0 | 315.0 | 432.0 | 560.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
