Prediction 4182
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Alagoas |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=AL (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 306.0 | 71.0 | 97.0 | 131.0 | 202.0 | 446.0 | 614.0 | 737.0 | 862.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 326.0 | 76.0 | 103.0 | 139.0 | 214.0 | 477.0 | 659.0 | 794.0 | 930.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 268.0 | 49.0 | 73.0 | 104.0 | 170.0 | 402.0 | 563.0 | 684.0 | 806.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 257.0 | 42.0 | 65.0 | 95.0 | 160.0 | 389.0 | 551.0 | 671.0 | 794.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 252.0 | 38.0 | 60.0 | 91.0 | 155.0 | 386.0 | 550.0 | 673.0 | 799.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 231.0 | 28.0 | 49.0 | 78.0 | 139.0 | 360.0 | 518.0 | 638.0 | 760.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 209.0 | 17.0 | 37.0 | 64.0 | 121.0 | 331.0 | 481.0 | 596.0 | 713.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 206.0 | 14.0 | 34.0 | 61.0 | 118.0 | 329.0 | 482.0 | 598.0 | 718.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 200.0 | 11.0 | 30.0 | 56.0 | 113.0 | 323.0 | 476.0 | 593.0 | 713.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 191.0 | 6.0 | 25.0 | 51.0 | 106.0 | 313.0 | 464.0 | 580.0 | 700.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 161.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 34.0 | 83.0 | 271.0 | 409.0 | 516.0 | 626.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 134.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 64.0 | 233.0 | 360.0 | 457.0 | 558.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 182.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 42.0 | 97.0 | 305.0 | 460.0 | 580.0 | 705.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 201.0 | 4.0 | 24.0 | 51.0 | 109.0 | 333.0 | 501.0 | 631.0 | 767.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 201.0 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 49.0 | 108.0 | 334.0 | 505.0 | 637.0 | 776.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 196.0 | 1.0 | 20.0 | 46.0 | 104.0 | 329.0 | 500.0 | 633.0 | 771.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 219.0 | 7.0 | 28.0 | 57.0 | 120.0 | 365.0 | 551.0 | 697.0 | 850.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 237.0 | 12.0 | 34.0 | 64.0 | 131.0 | 392.0 | 591.0 | 747.0 | 911.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 249.0 | 15.0 | 38.0 | 69.0 | 139.0 | 412.0 | 621.0 | 785.0 | 958.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 267.0 | 20.0 | 44.0 | 77.0 | 150.0 | 440.0 | 662.0 | 838.0 | 1022.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 299.0 | 29.0 | 55.0 | 91.0 | 171.0 | 487.0 | 732.0 | 925.0 | 1128.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 300.0 | 29.0 | 55.0 | 91.0 | 171.0 | 491.0 | 740.0 | 936.0 | 1143.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 297.0 | 27.0 | 52.0 | 88.0 | 168.0 | 488.0 | 737.0 | 934.0 | 1142.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 321.0 | 33.0 | 60.0 | 99.0 | 183.0 | 525.0 | 791.0 | 1003.0 | 1227.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 329.0 | 35.0 | 63.0 | 102.0 | 188.0 | 539.0 | 814.0 | 1032.0 | 1263.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 387.0 | 52.0 | 84.0 | 128.0 | 227.0 | 627.0 | 942.0 | 1193.0 | 1458.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 436.0 | 67.0 | 101.0 | 150.0 | 259.0 | 702.0 | 1052.0 | 1331.0 | 1627.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 495.0 | 84.0 | 122.0 | 176.0 | 297.0 | 792.0 | 1183.0 | 1496.0 | 1828.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 533.0 | 94.0 | 135.0 | 192.0 | 321.0 | 850.0 | 1270.0 | 1606.0 | 1963.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 612.0 | 117.0 | 163.0 | 228.0 | 373.0 | 972.0 | 1448.0 | 1829.0 | 2235.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 662.0 | 131.0 | 180.0 | 249.0 | 406.0 | 1050.0 | 1564.0 | 1976.0 | 2415.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 725.0 | 149.0 | 202.0 | 277.0 | 446.0 | 1147.0 | 1707.0 | 2157.0 | 2637.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 688.0 | 136.0 | 187.0 | 259.0 | 421.0 | 1093.0 | 1633.0 | 2066.0 | 2529.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 693.0 | 137.0 | 187.0 | 260.0 | 423.0 | 1102.0 | 1649.0 | 2088.0 | 2558.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 686.0 | 133.0 | 184.0 | 255.0 | 417.0 | 1093.0 | 1638.0 | 2077.0 | 2547.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 714.0 | 141.0 | 193.0 | 267.0 | 435.0 | 1139.0 | 1708.0 | 2166.0 | 2657.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 668.0 | 126.0 | 175.0 | 245.0 | 404.0 | 1070.0 | 1610.0 | 2045.0 | 2511.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 600.0 | 104.0 | 149.0 | 213.0 | 358.0 | 969.0 | 1466.0 | 1868.0 | 2298.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 596.0 | 102.0 | 146.0 | 210.0 | 355.0 | 966.0 | 1464.0 | 1868.0 | 2302.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 592.0 | 99.0 | 143.0 | 206.0 | 351.0 | 962.0 | 1462.0 | 1867.0 | 2303.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 529.0 | 80.0 | 120.0 | 178.0 | 309.0 | 868.0 | 1327.0 | 1700.0 | 2101.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 463.0 | 60.0 | 96.0 | 147.0 | 265.0 | 768.0 | 1182.0 | 1519.0 | 1881.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 463.0 | 59.0 | 95.0 | 146.0 | 264.0 | 769.0 | 1186.0 | 1526.0 | 1892.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 427.0 | 48.0 | 81.0 | 130.0 | 240.0 | 716.0 | 1109.0 | 1430.0 | 1777.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 400.0 | 39.0 | 71.0 | 117.0 | 222.0 | 675.0 | 1051.0 | 1358.0 | 1690.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 342.0 | 23.0 | 51.0 | 91.0 | 184.0 | 586.0 | 921.0 | 1195.0 | 1491.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 306.0 | 12.0 | 38.0 | 75.0 | 161.0 | 532.0 | 842.0 | 1095.0 | 1370.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 291.0 | 7.0 | 32.0 | 68.0 | 151.0 | 510.0 | 810.0 | 1057.0 | 1324.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 264.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 56.0 | 133.0 | 469.0 | 750.0 | 981.0 | 1231.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 258.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 53.0 | 129.0 | 460.0 | 738.0 | 967.0 | 1216.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 226.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 39.0 | 108.0 | 411.0 | 665.0 | 875.0 | 1103.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 179.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 78.0 | 338.0 | 557.0 | 738.0 | 934.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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