Prediction 4190
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Minas Gerais |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=MG (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 1276.0 | 275.0 | 362.0 | 488.0 | 779.0 | 2052.0 | 3120.0 | 3998.0 | 4951.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 1419.0 | 300.0 | 396.0 | 535.0 | 860.0 | 2305.0 | 3537.0 | 4558.0 | 5672.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 1450.0 | 295.0 | 392.0 | 534.0 | 868.0 | 2382.0 | 3690.0 | 4784.0 | 5984.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 1441.0 | 281.0 | 376.0 | 517.0 | 852.0 | 2393.0 | 3744.0 | 4882.0 | 6137.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 1662.0 | 323.0 | 432.0 | 593.0 | 978.0 | 2781.0 | 4384.0 | 5743.0 | 7251.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 1724.0 | 325.0 | 437.0 | 604.0 | 1005.0 | 2912.0 | 4630.0 | 6096.0 | 7731.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 2113.0 | 402.0 | 537.0 | 739.0 | 1228.0 | 3589.0 | 5742.0 | 7592.0 | 9665.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2226.0 | 413.0 | 555.0 | 766.0 | 1283.0 | 3811.0 | 6145.0 | 8163.0 | 10435.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 2479.0 | 455.0 | 611.0 | 845.0 | 1420.0 | 4276.0 | 6942.0 | 9261.0 | 11884.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2635.0 | 474.0 | 638.0 | 886.0 | 1499.0 | 4579.0 | 7488.0 | 10033.0 | 12922.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 2343.0 | 401.0 | 546.0 | 767.0 | 1316.0 | 4114.0 | 6783.0 | 9132.0 | 11810.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2384.0 | 398.0 | 545.0 | 769.0 | 1329.0 | 4218.0 | 7002.0 | 9466.0 | 12286.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 5507.0 | 1000.0 | 1329.0 | 1833.0 | 3101.0 | 9722.0 | 16166.0 | 21899.0 | 28485.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 6970.0 | 1258.0 | 1670.0 | 2304.0 | 3907.0 | 12375.0 | 20697.0 | 28138.0 | 36717.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 8531.0 | 1524.0 | 2024.0 | 2795.0 | 4757.0 | 15236.0 | 25630.0 | 34970.0 | 45775.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 9921.0 | 1748.0 | 2325.0 | 3218.0 | 5501.0 | 17829.0 | 30166.0 | 41303.0 | 54234.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 11938.0 | 2078.0 | 2767.0 | 3836.0 | 6584.0 | 21581.0 | 36718.0 | 50447.0 | 66439.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 13299.0 | 2279.0 | 3042.0 | 4228.0 | 7292.0 | 24188.0 | 41384.0 | 57050.0 | 75356.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 14816.0 | 2501.0 | 3345.0 | 4661.0 | 8078.0 | 27106.0 | 46628.0 | 64489.0 | 85426.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 16163.0 | 2687.0 | 3601.0 | 5032.0 | 8763.0 | 29741.0 | 51431.0 | 71360.0 | 94791.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 18622.0 | 3055.0 | 4100.0 | 5743.0 | 10044.0 | 34454.0 | 59885.0 | 83344.0 | 111006.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 20992.0 | 3396.0 | 4567.0 | 6413.0 | 11263.0 | 39049.0 | 68209.0 | 95214.0 | 127147.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 23073.0 | 3680.0 | 4960.0 | 6981.0 | 12316.0 | 43149.0 | 75737.0 | 106032.0 | 141953.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 23833.0 | 3744.0 | 5058.0 | 7139.0 | 12655.0 | 44806.0 | 79020.0 | 110944.0 | 148898.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 23386.0 | 3616.0 | 4898.0 | 6935.0 | 12352.0 | 44195.0 | 78309.0 | 110253.0 | 148329.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 25196.0 | 3845.0 | 5218.0 | 7405.0 | 13245.0 | 47849.0 | 85161.0 | 120222.0 | 162118.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 25463.0 | 3830.0 | 5211.0 | 7414.0 | 13320.0 | 48592.0 | 86863.0 | 122948.0 | 166171.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 23793.0 | 3523.0 | 4807.0 | 6860.0 | 12384.0 | 45628.0 | 81919.0 | 116249.0 | 157468.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 21477.0 | 3128.0 | 4281.0 | 6131.0 | 11122.0 | 41386.0 | 74619.0 | 106157.0 | 144111.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 19759.0 | 2833.0 | 3889.0 | 5586.0 | 10182.0 | 38254.0 | 69258.0 | 98772.0 | 134369.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 17302.0 | 2438.0 | 3358.0 | 4841.0 | 8871.0 | 33656.0 | 61183.0 | 87465.0 | 119234.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 13789.0 | 1901.0 | 2632.0 | 3812.0 | 7030.0 | 26957.0 | 49209.0 | 70517.0 | 96328.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 10144.0 | 1358.0 | 1895.0 | 2763.0 | 5137.0 | 19938.0 | 36553.0 | 52509.0 | 71877.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 7718.0 | 1000.0 | 1407.0 | 2068.0 | 3881.0 | 15254.0 | 28086.0 | 40444.0 | 55474.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 5980.0 | 746.0 | 1061.0 | 1574.0 | 2984.0 | 11887.0 | 21983.0 | 31732.0 | 43612.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 4534.0 | 537.0 | 777.0 | 1167.0 | 2241.0 | 9071.0 | 16853.0 | 24387.0 | 33585.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 3401.0 | 377.0 | 557.0 | 850.0 | 1663.0 | 6856.0 | 12801.0 | 18572.0 | 25630.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 2561.0 | 256.0 | 392.0 | 615.0 | 1232.0 | 5215.0 | 9807.0 | 14281.0 | 19769.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 2038.0 | 181.0 | 290.0 | 468.0 | 964.0 | 4195.0 | 7947.0 | 11618.0 | 16134.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 1646.0 | 126.0 | 214.0 | 359.0 | 764.0 | 3427.0 | 6542.0 | 9601.0 | 13375.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 1361.0 | 86.0 | 159.0 | 280.0 | 619.0 | 2868.0 | 5517.0 | 8129.0 | 11359.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 1144.0 | 56.0 | 118.0 | 220.0 | 509.0 | 2440.0 | 4731.0 | 6997.0 | 9807.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 1014.0 | 38.0 | 93.0 | 184.0 | 443.0 | 2187.0 | 4269.0 | 6336.0 | 8907.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 940.0 | 27.0 | 78.0 | 163.0 | 404.0 | 2045.0 | 4017.0 | 5982.0 | 8432.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 887.0 | 19.0 | 67.0 | 147.0 | 376.0 | 1946.0 | 3845.0 | 5742.0 | 8113.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 832.0 | 11.0 | 56.0 | 131.0 | 348.0 | 1842.0 | 3660.0 | 5484.0 | 7767.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 767.0 | 1.0 | 43.0 | 113.0 | 314.0 | 1714.0 | 3427.0 | 5150.0 | 7313.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 779.0 | 1.0 | 44.0 | 114.0 | 318.0 | 1748.0 | 3507.0 | 5282.0 | 7515.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 882.0 | 12.0 | 59.0 | 137.0 | 365.0 | 1974.0 | 3964.0 | 5979.0 | 8519.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 865.0 | 9.0 | 54.0 | 131.0 | 355.0 | 1946.0 | 3924.0 | 5932.0 | 8470.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 844.0 | 5.0 | 49.0 | 125.0 | 343.0 | 1911.0 | 3870.0 | 5864.0 | 8390.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 870.0 | 7.0 | 52.0 | 129.0 | 354.0 | 1974.0 | 4010.0 | 6088.0 | 8725.0 |
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Interval Bounds
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