Prediction 4204
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | São Paulo |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=SP (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 11003.0 | 2877.0 | 3578.0 | 4595.0 | 6958.0 | 17366.0 | 26159.0 | 33416.0 | 41316.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 11709.0 | 2946.0 | 3687.0 | 4769.0 | 7308.0 | 18725.0 | 28543.0 | 36722.0 | 45685.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 11812.0 | 2860.0 | 3602.0 | 4693.0 | 7277.0 | 19134.0 | 29505.0 | 38222.0 | 47837.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 12291.0 | 2870.0 | 3637.0 | 4769.0 | 7479.0 | 20157.0 | 31430.0 | 40988.0 | 51595.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 13908.0 | 3143.0 | 4003.0 | 5281.0 | 8366.0 | 23079.0 | 36369.0 | 47732.0 | 60418.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 14639.0 | 3198.0 | 4096.0 | 5438.0 | 8705.0 | 24573.0 | 39128.0 | 51674.0 | 65764.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 16939.0 | 3590.0 | 4619.0 | 6166.0 | 9964.0 | 28746.0 | 46231.0 | 61421.0 | 78576.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 18842.0 | 3874.0 | 5008.0 | 6722.0 | 10967.0 | 32321.0 | 52489.0 | 70145.0 | 90194.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 21519.0 | 4297.0 | 5580.0 | 7531.0 | 12397.0 | 37300.0 | 61150.0 | 82185.0 | 106198.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 23875.0 | 4632.0 | 6042.0 | 8197.0 | 13616.0 | 41808.0 | 69177.0 | 93490.0 | 121389.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 23476.0 | 4418.0 | 5793.0 | 7904.0 | 13252.0 | 41529.0 | 69343.0 | 94226.0 | 122923.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 22930.0 | 4189.0 | 5520.0 | 7574.0 | 12815.0 | 40967.0 | 69016.0 | 94280.0 | 123561.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 41736.0 | 7477.0 | 9873.0 | 13589.0 | 23138.0 | 75221.0 | 127765.0 | 175409.0 | 230894.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 51148.0 | 8932.0 | 11840.0 | 16372.0 | 28100.0 | 93036.0 | 159347.0 | 219867.0 | 290678.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 66272.0 | 11290.0 | 15021.0 | 20864.0 | 36088.0 | 121633.0 | 210034.0 | 291230.0 | 386668.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 82445.0 | 13701.0 | 18299.0 | 25532.0 | 44504.0 | 152661.0 | 265731.0 | 370233.0 | 493618.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 103179.0 | 16733.0 | 22433.0 | 31440.0 | 55220.0 | 192715.0 | 338093.0 | 473274.0 | 633582.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 123320.0 | 19519.0 | 26269.0 | 36980.0 | 65443.0 | 232305.0 | 410698.0 | 577566.0 | 776301.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 148325.0 | 22925.0 | 30968.0 | 43786.0 | 78062.0 | 281750.0 | 501881.0 | 708991.0 | 956694.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 166959.0 | 25202.0 | 34173.0 | 48529.0 | 87153.0 | 319758.0 | 573814.0 | 814208.0 | 1102901.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 195043.0 | 28771.0 | 39154.0 | 55839.0 | 101002.0 | 376559.0 | 680656.0 | 970012.0 | 1318906.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 216660.0 | 31240.0 | 42669.0 | 61108.0 | 111316.0 | 421605.0 | 767518.0 | 1098467.0 | 1499090.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 243718.0 | 34366.0 | 47106.0 | 67742.0 | 124256.0 | 477943.0 | 876166.0 | 1259209.0 | 1724693.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 263625.0 | 36365.0 | 50021.0 | 72227.0 | 133389.0 | 520923.0 | 961517.0 | 1387548.0 | 1907241.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 261360.0 | 35275.0 | 48694.0 | 70595.0 | 131257.0 | 520322.0 | 966886.0 | 1400922.0 | 1932356.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 280780.0 | 37102.0 | 51389.0 | 74795.0 | 139983.0 | 563092.0 | 1053287.0 | 1532144.0 | 2120607.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 289431.0 | 37453.0 | 52051.0 | 76053.0 | 143261.0 | 584633.0 | 1100687.0 | 1607313.0 | 2232141.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 285328.0 | 36168.0 | 50433.0 | 73972.0 | 140234.0 | 580438.0 | 1099770.0 | 1612104.0 | 2246204.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 254169.0 | 31563.0 | 44160.0 | 65020.0 | 124049.0 | 520670.0 | 992723.0 | 1460651.0 | 2041801.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 231121.0 | 28127.0 | 39483.0 | 58354.0 | 112027.0 | 476710.0 | 914521.0 | 1350550.0 | 1893929.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 200462.0 | 23911.0 | 33677.0 | 49961.0 | 96508.0 | 416271.0 | 803425.0 | 1190789.0 | 1675140.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 169348.0 | 19801.0 | 27982.0 | 41668.0 | 80984.0 | 354007.0 | 687338.0 | 1022366.0 | 1442658.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 118951.0 | 13621.0 | 19320.0 | 28885.0 | 56500.0 | 250309.0 | 488873.0 | 729724.0 | 1032851.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 86794.0 | 9731.0 | 13855.0 | 20801.0 | 40949.0 | 183842.0 | 361152.0 | 540950.0 | 767957.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 63171.0 | 6929.0 | 9907.0 | 14938.0 | 29602.0 | 134678.0 | 266098.0 | 399937.0 | 569449.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 51575.0 | 5538.0 | 7951.0 | 12039.0 | 24009.0 | 110660.0 | 219881.0 | 331585.0 | 473499.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 40096.0 | 4209.0 | 6070.0 | 9234.0 | 18540.0 | 86581.0 | 173001.0 | 261757.0 | 374858.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 32185.0 | 3273.0 | 4750.0 | 7272.0 | 14739.0 | 70141.0 | 141292.0 | 214811.0 | 308910.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 23379.0 | 2288.0 | 3348.0 | 5167.0 | 10592.0 | 51458.0 | 104556.0 | 159771.0 | 230770.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 20196.0 | 1910.0 | 2815.0 | 4375.0 | 9059.0 | 44877.0 | 91949.0 | 141205.0 | 204830.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 17113.0 | 1561.0 | 2319.0 | 3632.0 | 7599.0 | 38388.0 | 79304.0 | 122381.0 | 178273.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 14951.0 | 1316.0 | 1971.0 | 3109.0 | 6573.0 | 33849.0 | 70496.0 | 109310.0 | 159892.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 13704.0 | 1167.0 | 1760.0 | 2795.0 | 5967.0 | 31305.0 | 65713.0 | 102372.0 | 150350.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 12182.0 | 1000.0 | 1521.0 | 2435.0 | 5253.0 | 28081.0 | 59407.0 | 92976.0 | 137095.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 11112.0 | 880.0 | 1350.0 | 2178.0 | 4746.0 | 25839.0 | 55085.0 | 86602.0 | 128195.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 10299.0 | 788.0 | 1218.0 | 1980.0 | 4358.0 | 24155.0 | 51880.0 | 81927.0 | 121741.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 9285.0 | 683.0 | 1067.0 | 1749.0 | 3892.0 | 21966.0 | 47533.0 | 75391.0 | 112453.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 8822.0 | 627.0 | 988.0 | 1632.0 | 3665.0 | 21043.0 | 45865.0 | 73057.0 | 109375.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 9534.0 | 668.0 | 1053.0 | 1743.0 | 3934.0 | 22908.0 | 50268.0 | 80400.0 | 120799.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 9547.0 | 652.0 | 1033.0 | 1719.0 | 3909.0 | 23116.0 | 51073.0 | 82022.0 | 123675.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 9334.0 | 619.0 | 988.0 | 1653.0 | 3791.0 | 22772.0 | 50655.0 | 81681.0 | 123592.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 9356.0 | 606.0 | 971.0 | 1633.0 | 3771.0 | 22995.0 | 51490.0 | 83356.0 | 126561.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
