Prediction 1425
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Ceará |
Description:
Validation 3 (NegBinom Baseline model)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-07 | 143.0 | 29.0 | 39.0 | 55.0 | 90.0 | 215.0 | 296.0 | 353.0 | 408.0 |
| 2024-10-14 | 129.0 | 25.0 | 35.0 | 49.0 | 80.0 | 194.0 | 268.0 | 320.0 | 370.0 |
| 2024-10-21 | 115.0 | 27.0 | 36.0 | 48.0 | 75.0 | 168.0 | 227.0 | 268.0 | 307.0 |
| 2024-10-28 | 121.0 | 21.0 | 30.0 | 43.0 | 73.0 | 186.0 | 262.0 | 315.0 | 366.0 |
| 2024-11-04 | 138.0 | 22.0 | 32.0 | 47.0 | 82.0 | 216.0 | 307.0 | 372.0 | 434.0 |
| 2024-11-11 | 138.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 | 36.0 | 73.0 | 234.0 | 352.0 | 437.0 | 520.0 |
| 2024-11-18 | 152.0 | 21.0 | 32.0 | 48.0 | 87.0 | 244.0 | 352.0 | 430.0 | 505.0 |
| 2024-11-25 | 151.0 | 11.0 | 20.0 | 34.0 | 75.0 | 267.0 | 413.0 | 519.0 | 624.0 |
| 2024-12-02 | 158.0 | 15.0 | 25.0 | 41.0 | 83.0 | 270.0 | 406.0 | 505.0 | 602.0 |
| 2024-12-09 | 140.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 | 36.0 | 73.0 | 239.0 | 359.0 | 447.0 | 533.0 |
| 2024-12-16 | 111.0 | 9.0 | 15.0 | 26.0 | 55.0 | 196.0 | 301.0 | 378.0 | 453.0 |
| 2024-12-23 | 95.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 41.0 | 186.0 | 305.0 | 394.0 | 482.0 |
| 2024-12-30 | 172.0 | 14.0 | 23.0 | 40.0 | 86.0 | 304.0 | 467.0 | 587.0 | 704.0 |
| 2025-01-06 | 192.0 | 15.0 | 25.0 | 44.0 | 95.0 | 341.0 | 525.0 | 661.0 | 794.0 |
| 2025-01-13 | 250.0 | 24.0 | 39.0 | 64.0 | 131.0 | 428.0 | 646.0 | 804.0 | 959.0 |
| 2025-01-20 | 293.0 | 28.0 | 46.0 | 75.0 | 153.0 | 503.0 | 759.0 | 946.0 | 1128.0 |
| 2025-01-27 | 366.0 | 47.0 | 71.0 | 109.0 | 204.0 | 599.0 | 877.0 | 1076.0 | 1270.0 |
| 2025-02-03 | 405.0 | 51.0 | 77.0 | 119.0 | 225.0 | 666.0 | 977.0 | 1201.0 | 1418.0 |
| 2025-02-10 | 467.0 | 55.0 | 85.0 | 133.0 | 255.0 | 776.0 | 1146.0 | 1413.0 | 1673.0 |
| 2025-02-17 | 513.0 | 70.0 | 104.0 | 158.0 | 290.0 | 830.0 | 1206.0 | 1475.0 | 1736.0 |
| 2025-02-24 | 607.0 | 91.0 | 132.0 | 196.0 | 351.0 | 967.0 | 1391.0 | 1692.0 | 1984.0 |
| 2025-03-03 | 692.0 | 98.0 | 144.0 | 217.0 | 395.0 | 1114.0 | 1612.0 | 1967.0 | 2312.0 |
| 2025-03-10 | 751.0 | 92.0 | 140.0 | 218.0 | 413.0 | 1239.0 | 1823.0 | 2243.0 | 2652.0 |
| 2025-03-17 | 765.0 | 83.0 | 130.0 | 208.0 | 409.0 | 1288.0 | 1921.0 | 2379.0 | 2827.0 |
| 2025-03-24 | 836.0 | 78.0 | 127.0 | 210.0 | 432.0 | 1444.0 | 2190.0 | 2733.0 | 3265.0 |
| 2025-03-31 | 1065.0 | 116.0 | 181.0 | 289.0 | 570.0 | 1795.0 | 2678.0 | 3318.0 | 3942.0 |
| 2025-04-07 | 1159.0 | 136.0 | 210.0 | 329.0 | 632.0 | 1927.0 | 2850.0 | 3515.0 | 4163.0 |
| 2025-04-14 | 1229.0 | 137.0 | 213.0 | 339.0 | 661.0 | 2061.0 | 3067.0 | 3793.0 | 4503.0 |
| 2025-04-21 | 1257.0 | 127.0 | 203.0 | 329.0 | 661.0 | 2143.0 | 3222.0 | 4006.0 | 4773.0 |
| 2025-04-28 | 1311.0 | 138.0 | 217.0 | 350.0 | 695.0 | 2222.0 | 3327.0 | 4129.0 | 4912.0 |
| 2025-05-05 | 1340.0 | 145.0 | 228.0 | 364.0 | 716.0 | 2260.0 | 3374.0 | 4180.0 | 4967.0 |
| 2025-05-12 | 1327.0 | 142.0 | 223.0 | 357.0 | 707.0 | 2242.0 | 3352.0 | 4156.0 | 4941.0 |
| 2025-05-19 | 1194.0 | 110.0 | 179.0 | 297.0 | 613.0 | 2068.0 | 3142.0 | 3926.0 | 4694.0 |
| 2025-05-26 | 1051.0 | 105.0 | 168.0 | 273.0 | 551.0 | 1796.0 | 2705.0 | 3366.0 | 4012.0 |
| 2025-06-02 | 991.0 | 119.0 | 182.0 | 284.0 | 542.0 | 1641.0 | 2422.0 | 2984.0 | 3532.0 |
| 2025-06-09 | 911.0 | 116.0 | 175.0 | 270.0 | 506.0 | 1494.0 | 2189.0 | 2689.0 | 3174.0 |
| 2025-06-16 | 779.0 | 110.0 | 162.0 | 244.0 | 444.0 | 1254.0 | 1816.0 | 2217.0 | 2606.0 |
| 2025-06-23 | 734.0 | 127.0 | 179.0 | 258.0 | 440.0 | 1137.0 | 1603.0 | 1933.0 | 2250.0 |
| 2025-06-30 | 685.0 | 121.0 | 170.0 | 243.0 | 413.0 | 1057.0 | 1487.0 | 1791.0 | 2083.0 |
| 2025-07-07 | 586.0 | 94.0 | 135.0 | 197.0 | 345.0 | 921.0 | 1312.0 | 1589.0 | 1857.0 |
| 2025-07-14 | 523.0 | 83.0 | 120.0 | 175.0 | 307.0 | 823.0 | 1174.0 | 1422.0 | 1663.0 |
| 2025-07-21 | 483.0 | 87.0 | 121.0 | 173.0 | 293.0 | 744.0 | 1044.0 | 1256.0 | 1460.0 |
| 2025-07-28 | 452.0 | 69.0 | 100.0 | 148.0 | 263.0 | 717.0 | 1028.0 | 1249.0 | 1463.0 |
| 2025-08-04 | 397.0 | 70.0 | 98.0 | 140.0 | 239.0 | 613.0 | 862.0 | 1038.0 | 1208.0 |
| 2025-08-11 | 361.0 | 61.0 | 87.0 | 125.0 | 216.0 | 562.0 | 795.0 | 960.0 | 1118.0 |
| 2025-08-18 | 309.0 | 60.0 | 82.0 | 116.0 | 191.0 | 468.0 | 650.0 | 777.0 | 900.0 |
| 2025-08-25 | 248.0 | 52.0 | 71.0 | 97.0 | 157.0 | 369.0 | 506.0 | 602.0 | 693.0 |
| 2025-09-01 | 234.0 | 54.0 | 71.0 | 96.0 | 151.0 | 343.0 | 466.0 | 551.0 | 632.0 |
| 2025-09-08 | 203.0 | 45.0 | 60.0 | 82.0 | 130.0 | 300.0 | 409.0 | 484.0 | 557.0 |
| 2025-09-15 | 187.0 | 48.0 | 62.0 | 82.0 | 124.0 | 267.0 | 356.0 | 418.0 | 476.0 |
| 2025-09-22 | 159.0 | 34.0 | 45.0 | 62.0 | 101.0 | 237.0 | 325.0 | 386.0 | 445.0 |
| 2025-09-29 | 151.0 | 33.0 | 44.0 | 60.0 | 96.0 | 223.0 | 305.0 | 362.0 | 416.0 |
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