Prediction 1682
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Ceará |
Description:
Validation 1 (NegBinom Baseline model)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 144.0 | 27.0 | 37.0 | 53.0 | 88.0 | 219.0 | 305.0 | 365.0 | 423.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 128.0 | 23.0 | 32.0 | 46.0 | 78.0 | 198.0 | 277.0 | 334.0 | 388.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 116.0 | 24.0 | 33.0 | 45.0 | 73.0 | 174.0 | 239.0 | 284.0 | 328.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 126.0 | 21.0 | 30.0 | 43.0 | 75.0 | 197.0 | 279.0 | 337.0 | 393.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 142.0 | 20.0 | 30.0 | 45.0 | 82.0 | 227.0 | 326.0 | 397.0 | 466.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 144.0 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 36.0 | 74.0 | 249.0 | 378.0 | 472.0 | 564.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 159.0 | 20.0 | 31.0 | 47.0 | 89.0 | 260.0 | 381.0 | 467.0 | 551.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 158.0 | 10.0 | 19.0 | 33.0 | 76.0 | 288.0 | 451.0 | 571.0 | 690.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 170.0 | 15.0 | 25.0 | 42.0 | 88.0 | 294.0 | 446.0 | 557.0 | 665.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 154.0 | 15.0 | 24.0 | 40.0 | 81.0 | 263.0 | 395.0 | 491.0 | 585.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 129.0 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 34.0 | 68.0 | 219.0 | 327.0 | 406.0 | 483.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 106.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 45.0 | 206.0 | 338.0 | 437.0 | 535.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 181.0 | 13.0 | 23.0 | 40.0 | 88.0 | 326.0 | 506.0 | 639.0 | 770.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 209.0 | 16.0 | 27.0 | 47.0 | 103.0 | 372.0 | 575.0 | 723.0 | 870.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 271.0 | 26.0 | 42.0 | 69.0 | 140.0 | 466.0 | 704.0 | 878.0 | 1048.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 311.0 | 27.0 | 45.0 | 76.0 | 159.0 | 542.0 | 827.0 | 1034.0 | 1238.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 394.0 | 49.0 | 74.0 | 115.0 | 218.0 | 649.0 | 953.0 | 1171.0 | 1384.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 441.0 | 55.0 | 84.0 | 129.0 | 244.0 | 724.0 | 1062.0 | 1305.0 | 1541.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 509.0 | 60.0 | 92.0 | 145.0 | 278.0 | 844.0 | 1247.0 | 1538.0 | 1821.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 544.0 | 69.0 | 104.0 | 161.0 | 302.0 | 893.0 | 1308.0 | 1606.0 | 1896.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 630.0 | 83.0 | 125.0 | 191.0 | 354.0 | 1026.0 | 1497.0 | 1835.0 | 2163.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 719.0 | 90.0 | 136.0 | 211.0 | 397.0 | 1182.0 | 1737.0 | 2135.0 | 2523.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 789.0 | 87.0 | 136.0 | 216.0 | 423.0 | 1327.0 | 1977.0 | 2446.0 | 2905.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 799.0 | 76.0 | 123.0 | 202.0 | 414.0 | 1376.0 | 2083.0 | 2598.0 | 3102.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 885.0 | 74.0 | 124.0 | 209.0 | 445.0 | 1557.0 | 2389.0 | 2998.0 | 3596.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 1144.0 | 120.0 | 189.0 | 305.0 | 607.0 | 1940.0 | 2907.0 | 3608.0 | 4293.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 1238.0 | 138.0 | 215.0 | 341.0 | 666.0 | 2078.0 | 3092.0 | 3825.0 | 4540.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 1332.0 | 147.0 | 230.0 | 365.0 | 715.0 | 2239.0 | 3334.0 | 4126.0 | 4900.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 1384.0 | 156.0 | 243.0 | 384.0 | 747.0 | 2316.0 | 3441.0 | 4253.0 | 5046.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 1421.0 | 166.0 | 256.0 | 402.0 | 774.0 | 2364.0 | 3499.0 | 4317.0 | 5114.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 1473.0 | 181.0 | 275.0 | 428.0 | 811.0 | 2431.0 | 3579.0 | 4404.0 | 5208.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 1474.0 | 181.0 | 276.0 | 428.0 | 812.0 | 2432.0 | 3580.0 | 4405.0 | 5209.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 1319.0 | 140.0 | 220.0 | 354.0 | 701.0 | 2232.0 | 3340.0 | 4143.0 | 4927.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 1177.0 | 131.0 | 204.0 | 324.0 | 633.0 | 1975.0 | 2940.0 | 3637.0 | 4318.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 1107.0 | 148.0 | 221.0 | 337.0 | 623.0 | 1799.0 | 2622.0 | 3211.0 | 3783.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 1001.0 | 133.0 | 199.0 | 304.0 | 562.0 | 1628.0 | 2374.0 | 2908.0 | 3427.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 860.0 | 130.0 | 189.0 | 280.0 | 499.0 | 1367.0 | 1962.0 | 2385.0 | 2795.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 725.0 | 126.0 | 177.0 | 254.0 | 435.0 | 1124.0 | 1586.0 | 1912.0 | 2227.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 689.0 | 117.0 | 165.0 | 239.0 | 411.0 | 1072.0 | 1517.0 | 1832.0 | 2136.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 581.0 | 86.0 | 125.0 | 187.0 | 335.0 | 928.0 | 1335.0 | 1626.0 | 1907.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 516.0 | 77.0 | 113.0 | 167.0 | 299.0 | 821.0 | 1179.0 | 1434.0 | 1681.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 475.0 | 85.0 | 119.0 | 169.0 | 287.0 | 732.0 | 1029.0 | 1239.0 | 1440.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 433.0 | 65.0 | 95.0 | 141.0 | 251.0 | 688.0 | 988.0 | 1201.0 | 1407.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 391.0 | 66.0 | 94.0 | 136.0 | 234.0 | 607.0 | 859.0 | 1036.0 | 1207.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 350.0 | 58.0 | 83.0 | 120.0 | 208.0 | 545.0 | 773.0 | 933.0 | 1088.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 293.0 | 56.0 | 78.0 | 109.0 | 181.0 | 445.0 | 619.0 | 741.0 | 858.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 235.0 | 49.0 | 66.0 | 92.0 | 148.0 | 352.0 | 484.0 | 577.0 | 665.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 227.0 | 55.0 | 72.0 | 96.0 | 149.0 | 330.0 | 444.0 | 524.0 | 599.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 196.0 | 43.0 | 58.0 | 79.0 | 126.0 | 290.0 | 395.0 | 468.0 | 538.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 185.0 | 48.0 | 62.0 | 82.0 | 123.0 | 264.0 | 352.0 | 413.0 | 470.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 156.0 | 33.0 | 45.0 | 62.0 | 99.0 | 232.0 | 318.0 | 378.0 | 435.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 147.0 | 29.0 | 39.0 | 55.0 | 91.0 | 222.0 | 307.0 | 367.0 | 425.0 |
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