Prediction 1683
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Distrito Federal |
Description:
Validation 1 (NegBinom Baseline model)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 37.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 18.0 | 66.0 | 102.0 | 128.0 | 154.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 37.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 18.0 | 67.0 | 103.0 | 129.0 | 155.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 35.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 63.0 | 98.0 | 124.0 | 149.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 42.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 21.0 | 74.0 | 114.0 | 143.0 | 171.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 44.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 21.0 | 79.0 | 124.0 | 157.0 | 190.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 50.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 25.0 | 86.0 | 131.0 | 164.0 | 196.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 55.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 27.0 | 97.0 | 148.0 | 186.0 | 224.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 57.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 25.0 | 107.0 | 173.0 | 221.0 | 270.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 74.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 33.0 | 141.0 | 228.0 | 293.0 | 358.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 84.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 38.0 | 160.0 | 257.0 | 330.0 | 402.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 84.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 38.0 | 160.0 | 257.0 | 330.0 | 401.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 77.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 | 43.0 | 127.0 | 186.0 | 229.0 | 270.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 150.0 | 9.0 | 16.0 | 29.0 | 70.0 | 279.0 | 443.0 | 565.0 | 685.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 168.0 | 10.0 | 19.0 | 34.0 | 79.0 | 310.0 | 488.0 | 621.0 | 752.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 205.0 | 12.0 | 21.0 | 40.0 | 95.0 | 382.0 | 608.0 | 776.0 | 941.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 240.0 | 12.0 | 22.0 | 43.0 | 107.0 | 458.0 | 739.0 | 950.0 | 1159.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 287.0 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 48.0 | 125.0 | 558.0 | 911.0 | 1175.0 | 1439.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 342.0 | 11.0 | 24.0 | 50.0 | 140.0 | 690.0 | 1153.0 | 1504.0 | 1855.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 354.0 | 10.0 | 22.0 | 48.0 | 140.0 | 731.0 | 1238.0 | 1624.0 | 2012.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 381.0 | 8.0 | 19.0 | 44.0 | 142.0 | 818.0 | 1416.0 | 1876.0 | 2341.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 452.0 | 12.0 | 27.0 | 59.0 | 176.0 | 940.0 | 1599.0 | 2102.0 | 2607.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 491.0 | 13.0 | 28.0 | 63.0 | 190.0 | 1028.0 | 1752.0 | 2307.0 | 2864.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 545.0 | 14.0 | 30.0 | 68.0 | 209.0 | 1147.0 | 1964.0 | 2589.0 | 3218.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 571.0 | 14.0 | 31.0 | 70.0 | 216.0 | 1209.0 | 2078.0 | 2744.0 | 3415.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 601.0 | 16.0 | 35.0 | 78.0 | 234.0 | 1254.0 | 2135.0 | 2808.0 | 3485.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 637.0 | 19.0 | 41.0 | 88.0 | 254.0 | 1305.0 | 2200.0 | 2881.0 | 3564.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 701.0 | 26.0 | 52.0 | 108.0 | 292.0 | 1397.0 | 2316.0 | 3011.0 | 3705.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 676.0 | 23.0 | 48.0 | 100.0 | 277.0 | 1361.0 | 2271.0 | 2960.0 | 3650.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 685.0 | 24.0 | 49.0 | 103.0 | 283.0 | 1375.0 | 2288.0 | 2979.0 | 3671.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 716.0 | 27.0 | 55.0 | 112.0 | 301.0 | 1418.0 | 2343.0 | 3040.0 | 3737.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 712.0 | 28.0 | 57.0 | 114.0 | 303.0 | 1403.0 | 2309.0 | 2992.0 | 3673.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 646.0 | 20.0 | 42.0 | 91.0 | 259.0 | 1318.0 | 2216.0 | 2899.0 | 3584.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 572.0 | 14.0 | 31.0 | 70.0 | 217.0 | 1211.0 | 2080.0 | 2746.0 | 3418.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 536.0 | 12.0 | 27.0 | 62.0 | 199.0 | 1150.0 | 1991.0 | 2638.0 | 3291.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 438.0 | 9.0 | 21.0 | 49.0 | 160.0 | 950.0 | 1656.0 | 2201.0 | 2751.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 362.0 | 10.0 | 21.0 | 47.0 | 141.0 | 753.0 | 1281.0 | 1683.0 | 2088.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 260.0 | 7.0 | 16.0 | 35.0 | 103.0 | 536.0 | 906.0 | 1188.0 | 1470.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 169.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 24.0 | 68.0 | 344.0 | 577.0 | 755.0 | 932.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 135.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 54.0 | 276.0 | 464.0 | 607.0 | 749.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 114.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 21.0 | 51.0 | 216.0 | 348.0 | 446.0 | 543.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 97.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 19.0 | 45.0 | 179.0 | 282.0 | 359.0 | 435.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 74.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 35.0 | 136.0 | 215.0 | 272.0 | 329.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 68.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 15.0 | 33.0 | 120.0 | 185.0 | 233.0 | 279.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 52.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 27.0 | 90.0 | 135.0 | 169.0 | 201.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 51.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 27.0 | 86.0 | 129.0 | 160.0 | 190.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 40.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 21.0 | 69.0 | 103.0 | 128.0 | 153.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 39.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 20.0 | 67.0 | 101.0 | 127.0 | 151.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 39.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 19.0 | 71.0 | 111.0 | 141.0 | 170.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 45.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 23.0 | 78.0 | 119.0 | 149.0 | 178.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 38.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 17.0 | 70.0 | 110.0 | 140.0 | 169.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 45.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 75.0 | 112.0 | 138.0 | 163.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 40.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 18.0 | 73.0 | 116.0 | 147.0 | 178.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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