Prediction 17

Dengue Python Quantitative Weekly ADM 2
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Modelo Random Forest model with uncertainty computed with conformal prediction
Autor Eduardo Correa Araujo

Descrição:

Forecast de novos casos para o geocode 2507507 entre 2022-01-01 e 2023-01-01 usando apenas os dados de todos as cidades clusterizadas com 2507507 como input


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-01-02 156.18 - 13.86 - - - - 298.50 -
2022-01-09 80.55 - 0.00 - - - - 223.00 -
2022-01-16 82.37 - 0.00 - - - - 212.19 -
2022-01-23 142.26 - 0.00 - - - - 302.47 -
2022-01-30 81.29 - 0.00 - - - - 226.68 -
2022-02-06 86.82 - 0.00 - - - - 204.50 -
2022-02-13 69.76 - 0.00 - - - - 198.79 -
2022-02-20 84.09 - 0.00 - - - - 223.07 -
2022-02-27 73.97 - 0.00 - - - - 206.34 -
2022-03-06 75.79 - 0.00 - - - - 202.24 -
2022-03-13 82.34 - 0.00 - - - - 185.01 -
2022-03-20 84.18 - 9.26 - - - - 159.10 -
2022-03-27 113.12 - 53.60 - - - - 172.64 -
2022-04-03 174.39 - 97.84 - - - - 250.94 -
2022-04-10 199.27 - 100.19 - - - - 298.35 -
2022-04-17 255.14 - 155.49 - - - - 354.79 -
2022-04-24 195.56 - 63.65 - - - - 327.47 -
2022-05-01 172.78 - 20.71 - - - - 324.85 -
2022-05-08 135.26 - 0.00 - - - - 298.13 -
2022-05-15 202.16 - 40.62 - - - - 363.70 -
2022-05-22 301.09 - 119.29 - - - - 482.89 -
2022-05-29 294.20 - 133.05 - - - - 455.35 -
2022-06-05 290.33 - 128.23 - - - - 452.43 -
2022-06-12 368.49 - 181.91 - - - - 555.07 -
2022-06-19 396.29 - 219.78 - - - - 572.80 -
2022-06-26 407.45 - 228.19 - - - - 586.71 -
2022-07-03 364.72 - 118.85 - - - - 610.59 -
2022-07-10 327.15 - 49.18 - - - - 605.12 -
2022-07-17 308.83 - 41.79 - - - - 575.87 -
2022-07-24 324.69 - 55.98 - - - - 593.40 -
2022-07-31 278.75 - 55.90 - - - - 501.60 -
2022-08-07 304.22 - 81.71 - - - - 526.73 -
2022-08-14 379.23 - 163.17 - - - - 595.29 -
2022-08-21 388.32 - 178.22 - - - - 598.42 -
2022-08-28 325.13 - 137.72 - - - - 512.54 -
2022-09-04 334.87 - 190.00 - - - - 479.74 -
2022-09-11 338.44 - 204.04 - - - - 472.84 -
2022-09-18 321.02 - 163.83 - - - - 478.21 -
2022-09-25 87.13 - 0.00 - - - - 238.47 -
2022-10-02 252.31 - 99.02 - - - - 405.60 -
2022-10-09 127.61 - 0.20 - - - - 255.02 -
2022-10-16 68.71 - 0.00 - - - - 166.92 -
2022-10-23 73.75 - 5.71 - - - - 141.79 -
2022-10-30 82.77 - 20.07 - - - - 145.47 -
2022-11-06 68.19 - 10.96 - - - - 125.42 -
2022-11-13 97.69 - 32.97 - - - - 162.41 -
2022-11-20 63.84 - 0.00 - - - - 128.90 -
2022-11-27 71.98 - 8.01 - - - - 135.95 -
2022-12-04 75.70 - 21.11 - - - - 130.29 -
2022-12-11 74.10 - 47.97 - - - - 100.23 -
2022-12-18 62.89 - 28.55 - - - - 97.23 -
2022-12-25 52.00 - 23.92 - - - - 80.08 -
2023-01-01 45.67 - 18.34 - - - - 73.00 -
2023-01-08 59.66 - 1.68 - - - - 117.64 -
2023-01-15 33.78 - 0.00 - - - - 91.33 -
2023-01-22 20.45 - 0.00 - - - - 88.57 -
2023-01-29 34.13 - 0.00 - - - - 98.36 -
2023-02-05 104.07 - 63.99 - - - - 144.15 -
2023-02-12 101.49 - 60.60 - - - - 142.38 -
2023-02-19 97.98 - 65.38 - - - - 130.58 -
2023-02-26 92.54 - 9.13 - - - - 175.95 -
2023-03-05 77.98 - 0.00 - - - - 160.04 -
2023-03-12 75.11 - 6.70 - - - - 143.52 -
2023-03-19 72.29 - 0.98 - - - - 143.60 -
2023-03-26 71.12 - 64.55 - - - - 77.69 -
2023-04-02 82.93 - 37.38 - - - - 128.48 -
2023-04-09 81.08 - 21.88 - - - - 140.28 -
2023-04-16 118.80 - 33.66 - - - - 203.94 -
2023-04-23 185.97 - 31.67 - - - - 340.27 -
2023-04-30 205.81 - 39.46 - - - - 372.16 -
2023-05-07 152.65 - 0.00 - - - - 317.27 -
2023-05-14 170.84 - 16.63 - - - - 325.05 -
2023-05-21 130.54 - 4.67 - - - - 256.41 -
2023-05-28 128.71 - 0.00 - - - - 259.47 -
2023-06-04 121.47 - 0.00 - - - - 260.14 -
2023-06-11 110.43 - 0.00 - - - - 231.68 -
2023-06-18 108.95 - 0.00 - - - - 238.04 -
2023-06-25 113.43 - 0.00 - - - - 244.05 -
2023-07-02 97.96 - 0.00 - - - - 232.82 -