Prediction 1709
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Ceará |
Description:
Validation 2 (NegBinom Baseline model)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 148.0 | 30.0 | 41.0 | 57.0 | 93.0 | 223.0 | 308.0 | 367.0 | 424.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 132.0 | 25.0 | 35.0 | 49.0 | 82.0 | 200.0 | 279.0 | 333.0 | 386.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 118.0 | 26.0 | 35.0 | 48.0 | 76.0 | 173.0 | 235.0 | 278.0 | 319.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 127.0 | 23.0 | 32.0 | 45.0 | 77.0 | 194.0 | 272.0 | 327.0 | 379.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 143.0 | 23.0 | 33.0 | 48.0 | 85.0 | 225.0 | 320.0 | 387.0 | 452.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 145.0 | 15.0 | 24.0 | 38.0 | 77.0 | 246.0 | 368.0 | 456.0 | 543.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 158.0 | 22.0 | 33.0 | 49.0 | 90.0 | 254.0 | 368.0 | 448.0 | 527.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 157.0 | 12.0 | 20.0 | 35.0 | 78.0 | 280.0 | 433.0 | 545.0 | 656.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 165.0 | 16.0 | 26.0 | 42.0 | 86.0 | 282.0 | 425.0 | 529.0 | 631.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 147.0 | 15.0 | 23.0 | 38.0 | 77.0 | 250.0 | 376.0 | 467.0 | 557.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 121.0 | 11.0 | 19.0 | 31.0 | 63.0 | 207.0 | 312.0 | 388.0 | 463.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 102.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 17.0 | 45.0 | 197.0 | 320.0 | 412.0 | 504.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 180.0 | 14.0 | 24.0 | 42.0 | 90.0 | 318.0 | 488.0 | 613.0 | 736.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 203.0 | 16.0 | 28.0 | 47.0 | 102.0 | 357.0 | 549.0 | 689.0 | 827.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 263.0 | 26.0 | 42.0 | 69.0 | 138.0 | 448.0 | 674.0 | 838.0 | 998.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 305.0 | 29.0 | 47.0 | 78.0 | 159.0 | 524.0 | 793.0 | 988.0 | 1179.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 382.0 | 49.0 | 74.0 | 114.0 | 213.0 | 624.0 | 913.0 | 1120.0 | 1321.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 425.0 | 54.0 | 82.0 | 127.0 | 237.0 | 695.0 | 1017.0 | 1248.0 | 1472.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 490.0 | 59.0 | 90.0 | 141.0 | 269.0 | 810.0 | 1194.0 | 1470.0 | 1739.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 530.0 | 70.0 | 106.0 | 161.0 | 298.0 | 861.0 | 1255.0 | 1537.0 | 1811.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 620.0 | 88.0 | 129.0 | 195.0 | 354.0 | 997.0 | 1442.0 | 1760.0 | 2068.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 709.0 | 95.0 | 142.0 | 217.0 | 399.0 | 1150.0 | 1674.0 | 2049.0 | 2413.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 772.0 | 91.0 | 140.0 | 219.0 | 421.0 | 1283.0 | 1897.0 | 2340.0 | 2771.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 785.0 | 81.0 | 129.0 | 208.0 | 415.0 | 1334.0 | 2001.0 | 2485.0 | 2957.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 863.0 | 77.0 | 127.0 | 212.0 | 441.0 | 1500.0 | 2285.0 | 2858.0 | 3419.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1082.0 | 109.0 | 174.0 | 282.0 | 568.0 | 1847.0 | 2780.0 | 3457.0 | 4120.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 1179.0 | 129.0 | 202.0 | 322.0 | 632.0 | 1983.0 | 2957.0 | 3661.0 | 4348.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 1259.0 | 133.0 | 210.0 | 337.0 | 668.0 | 2132.0 | 3191.0 | 3959.0 | 4709.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 1301.0 | 135.0 | 214.0 | 345.0 | 689.0 | 2209.0 | 3313.0 | 4113.0 | 4895.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 1359.0 | 150.0 | 234.0 | 372.0 | 729.0 | 2284.0 | 3402.0 | 4211.0 | 5000.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 1412.0 | 164.0 | 253.0 | 398.0 | 767.0 | 2353.0 | 3485.0 | 4302.0 | 5098.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 1410.0 | 163.0 | 252.0 | 397.0 | 765.0 | 2349.0 | 3481.0 | 4297.0 | 5093.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 1265.0 | 127.0 | 202.0 | 329.0 | 663.0 | 2162.0 | 3256.0 | 4051.0 | 4828.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 1120.0 | 122.0 | 191.0 | 305.0 | 599.0 | 1885.0 | 2812.0 | 3482.0 | 4136.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 1052.0 | 136.0 | 205.0 | 315.0 | 587.0 | 1719.0 | 2513.0 | 3083.0 | 3637.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 961.0 | 129.0 | 192.0 | 293.0 | 541.0 | 1561.0 | 2274.0 | 2785.0 | 3281.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 824.0 | 124.0 | 180.0 | 267.0 | 477.0 | 1311.0 | 1883.0 | 2290.0 | 2684.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 769.0 | 137.0 | 192.0 | 274.0 | 464.0 | 1185.0 | 1667.0 | 2006.0 | 2333.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 717.0 | 130.0 | 181.0 | 258.0 | 435.0 | 1102.0 | 1546.0 | 1859.0 | 2160.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 608.0 | 96.0 | 139.0 | 203.0 | 357.0 | 958.0 | 1366.0 | 1656.0 | 1936.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 544.0 | 86.0 | 124.0 | 181.0 | 319.0 | 857.0 | 1223.0 | 1482.0 | 1733.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 504.0 | 92.0 | 128.0 | 182.0 | 306.0 | 774.0 | 1086.0 | 1305.0 | 1515.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 468.0 | 70.0 | 102.0 | 151.0 | 270.0 | 745.0 | 1071.0 | 1304.0 | 1528.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 413.0 | 73.0 | 102.0 | 147.0 | 249.0 | 637.0 | 897.0 | 1080.0 | 1256.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 374.0 | 63.0 | 89.0 | 129.0 | 223.0 | 584.0 | 827.0 | 999.0 | 1166.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 316.0 | 59.0 | 81.0 | 115.0 | 193.0 | 482.0 | 674.0 | 809.0 | 938.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 252.0 | 51.0 | 70.0 | 97.0 | 158.0 | 379.0 | 524.0 | 625.0 | 722.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 243.0 | 56.0 | 74.0 | 100.0 | 157.0 | 356.0 | 483.0 | 570.0 | 654.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 209.0 | 46.0 | 61.0 | 84.0 | 133.0 | 310.0 | 424.0 | 503.0 | 578.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 194.0 | 51.0 | 66.0 | 86.0 | 130.0 | 277.0 | 368.0 | 431.0 | 490.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 166.0 | 35.0 | 48.0 | 65.0 | 105.0 | 246.0 | 337.0 | 400.0 | 461.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 153.0 | 32.0 | 43.0 | 59.0 | 96.0 | 229.0 | 315.0 | 375.0 | 433.0 |
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