Prediction 1710
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Distrito Federal |
Description:
Validation 2 (NegBinom Baseline model)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 50.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 19.0 | 108.0 | 186.0 | 246.0 | 306.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 52.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 19.0 | 112.0 | 195.0 | 258.0 | 322.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 47.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 18.0 | 98.0 | 167.0 | 219.0 | 272.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 50.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 23.0 | 94.0 | 150.0 | 192.0 | 233.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 54.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 23.0 | 108.0 | 178.0 | 231.0 | 284.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 62.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 27.0 | 119.0 | 192.0 | 247.0 | 302.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 68.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 29.0 | 133.0 | 217.0 | 280.0 | 343.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 71.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 28.0 | 146.0 | 247.0 | 324.0 | 401.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 91.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 36.0 | 187.0 | 316.0 | 414.0 | 513.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 102.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 15.0 | 42.0 | 206.0 | 345.0 | 449.0 | 554.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 99.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 42.0 | 195.0 | 320.0 | 414.0 | 508.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 93.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 20.0 | 45.0 | 167.0 | 260.0 | 328.0 | 395.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 172.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 31.0 | 77.0 | 328.0 | 529.0 | 680.0 | 829.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 191.0 | 10.0 | 19.0 | 36.0 | 87.0 | 357.0 | 570.0 | 728.0 | 885.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 230.0 | 12.0 | 23.0 | 43.0 | 105.0 | 434.0 | 695.0 | 889.0 | 1081.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 262.0 | 13.0 | 25.0 | 48.0 | 118.0 | 496.0 | 797.0 | 1022.0 | 1245.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 314.0 | 14.0 | 28.0 | 54.0 | 138.0 | 606.0 | 985.0 | 1268.0 | 1550.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 370.0 | 14.0 | 28.0 | 57.0 | 155.0 | 734.0 | 1214.0 | 1577.0 | 1939.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 376.0 | 13.0 | 26.0 | 55.0 | 154.0 | 757.0 | 1264.0 | 1648.0 | 2033.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 405.0 | 10.0 | 23.0 | 52.0 | 157.0 | 848.0 | 1446.0 | 1903.0 | 2363.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 474.0 | 15.0 | 32.0 | 68.0 | 193.0 | 960.0 | 1607.0 | 2098.0 | 2589.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 516.0 | 16.0 | 34.0 | 73.0 | 208.0 | 1051.0 | 1765.0 | 2307.0 | 2850.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 566.0 | 17.0 | 37.0 | 79.0 | 226.0 | 1158.0 | 1950.0 | 2552.0 | 3156.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 600.0 | 17.0 | 36.0 | 80.0 | 235.0 | 1245.0 | 2113.0 | 2775.0 | 3441.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 630.0 | 19.0 | 41.0 | 88.0 | 253.0 | 1287.0 | 2166.0 | 2835.0 | 3505.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 660.0 | 21.0 | 45.0 | 95.0 | 268.0 | 1339.0 | 2243.0 | 2929.0 | 3616.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 734.0 | 30.0 | 59.0 | 118.0 | 312.0 | 1444.0 | 2375.0 | 3076.0 | 3776.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 705.0 | 26.0 | 53.0 | 109.0 | 295.0 | 1403.0 | 2324.0 | 3019.0 | 3714.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 711.0 | 27.0 | 54.0 | 111.0 | 299.0 | 1412.0 | 2335.0 | 3032.0 | 3728.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 744.0 | 31.0 | 61.0 | 121.0 | 318.0 | 1458.0 | 2392.0 | 3096.0 | 3797.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 726.0 | 34.0 | 66.0 | 127.0 | 320.0 | 1394.0 | 2259.0 | 2907.0 | 3552.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 670.0 | 22.0 | 47.0 | 98.0 | 274.0 | 1353.0 | 2261.0 | 2949.0 | 3638.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 585.0 | 16.0 | 35.0 | 77.0 | 229.0 | 1215.0 | 2063.0 | 2710.0 | 3360.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 548.0 | 15.0 | 32.0 | 71.0 | 213.0 | 1143.0 | 1945.0 | 2558.0 | 3174.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 450.0 | 11.0 | 25.0 | 56.0 | 172.0 | 949.0 | 1625.0 | 2143.0 | 2664.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 380.0 | 12.0 | 26.0 | 55.0 | 155.0 | 770.0 | 1288.0 | 1681.0 | 2075.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 276.0 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 41.0 | 114.0 | 556.0 | 927.0 | 1208.0 | 1489.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 194.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 27.0 | 77.0 | 397.0 | 668.0 | 874.0 | 1081.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 152.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 22.0 | 62.0 | 309.0 | 517.0 | 675.0 | 834.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 129.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 23.0 | 57.0 | 246.0 | 398.0 | 511.0 | 623.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 109.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 21.0 | 50.0 | 203.0 | 323.0 | 412.0 | 500.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 87.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 39.0 | 167.0 | 269.0 | 345.0 | 421.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 79.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 37.0 | 147.0 | 234.0 | 298.0 | 362.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 64.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 29.0 | 121.0 | 195.0 | 250.0 | 304.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 63.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 29.0 | 116.0 | 184.0 | 235.0 | 284.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 52.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 22.0 | 101.0 | 164.0 | 212.0 | 260.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 51.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 21.0 | 104.0 | 173.0 | 226.0 | 279.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 52.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 19.0 | 111.0 | 192.0 | 254.0 | 316.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 58.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 24.0 | 117.0 | 195.0 | 255.0 | 314.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 50.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 18.0 | 109.0 | 189.0 | 250.0 | 312.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 61.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 25.0 | 123.0 | 205.0 | 268.0 | 330.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 53.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 19.0 | 113.0 | 196.0 | 259.0 | 323.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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