Prediction 1720
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Piauí |
Description:
Validation 2 (NegBinom Baseline model)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 15.0 | 34.0 | 47.0 | 55.0 | 63.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 30.0 | 39.0 | 45.0 | 51.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 26.0 | 33.0 | 38.0 | 43.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 32.0 | 45.0 | 54.0 | 62.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 24.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 38.0 | 55.0 | 67.0 | 79.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 26.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 15.0 | 39.0 | 55.0 | 65.0 | 76.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 26.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 38.0 | 53.0 | 63.0 | 72.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 28.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 16.0 | 44.0 | 63.0 | 76.0 | 89.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 27.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 44.0 | 63.0 | 77.0 | 90.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 26.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 43.0 | 62.0 | 76.0 | 90.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 23.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 40.0 | 61.0 | 76.0 | 91.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 35.0 | 56.0 | 72.0 | 88.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 49.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 29.0 | 76.0 | 109.0 | 131.0 | 153.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 57.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 19.0 | 33.0 | 91.0 | 130.0 | 158.0 | 185.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 66.0 | 16.0 | 21.0 | 28.0 | 44.0 | 95.0 | 127.0 | 149.0 | 170.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 77.0 | 18.0 | 24.0 | 32.0 | 50.0 | 112.0 | 150.0 | 177.0 | 203.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 95.0 | 15.0 | 22.0 | 32.0 | 56.0 | 149.0 | 211.0 | 255.0 | 298.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 104.0 | 15.0 | 22.0 | 33.0 | 60.0 | 166.0 | 239.0 | 290.0 | 341.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 113.0 | 18.0 | 26.0 | 39.0 | 67.0 | 177.0 | 251.0 | 303.0 | 354.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 121.0 | 21.0 | 30.0 | 43.0 | 73.0 | 187.0 | 262.0 | 315.0 | 366.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 146.0 | 24.0 | 34.0 | 50.0 | 86.0 | 229.0 | 325.0 | 394.0 | 459.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 174.0 | 23.0 | 35.0 | 53.0 | 98.0 | 283.0 | 413.0 | 505.0 | 595.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 213.0 | 20.0 | 33.0 | 54.0 | 110.0 | 366.0 | 553.0 | 689.0 | 823.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 239.0 | 12.0 | 23.0 | 43.0 | 107.0 | 454.0 | 731.0 | 938.0 | 1144.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 250.0 | 7.0 | 16.0 | 35.0 | 100.0 | 511.0 | 861.0 | 1127.0 | 1394.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 282.0 | 11.0 | 22.0 | 45.0 | 120.0 | 554.0 | 911.0 | 1180.0 | 1448.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 315.0 | 17.0 | 31.0 | 59.0 | 143.0 | 594.0 | 951.0 | 1217.0 | 1481.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 339.0 | 14.0 | 28.0 | 56.0 | 146.0 | 659.0 | 1076.0 | 1390.0 | 1703.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 352.0 | 19.0 | 35.0 | 65.0 | 160.0 | 665.0 | 1066.0 | 1364.0 | 1661.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 343.0 | 25.0 | 43.0 | 75.0 | 167.0 | 618.0 | 961.0 | 1213.0 | 1462.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 367.0 | 34.0 | 56.0 | 92.0 | 190.0 | 633.0 | 958.0 | 1195.0 | 1427.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 349.0 | 45.0 | 68.0 | 105.0 | 195.0 | 569.0 | 830.0 | 1018.0 | 1200.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 291.0 | 38.0 | 57.0 | 87.0 | 163.0 | 474.0 | 692.0 | 849.0 | 1000.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 276.0 | 42.0 | 61.0 | 91.0 | 161.0 | 437.0 | 626.0 | 760.0 | 890.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 243.0 | 38.0 | 55.0 | 81.0 | 143.0 | 382.0 | 545.0 | 660.0 | 772.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 219.0 | 34.0 | 49.0 | 72.0 | 128.0 | 345.0 | 493.0 | 599.0 | 700.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 190.0 | 28.0 | 41.0 | 62.0 | 110.0 | 301.0 | 432.0 | 525.0 | 616.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 165.0 | 24.0 | 35.0 | 52.0 | 95.0 | 263.0 | 379.0 | 462.0 | 542.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 146.0 | 24.0 | 35.0 | 50.0 | 87.0 | 227.0 | 322.0 | 389.0 | 453.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 119.0 | 17.0 | 26.0 | 38.0 | 69.0 | 189.0 | 271.0 | 330.0 | 386.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 109.0 | 17.0 | 24.0 | 36.0 | 64.0 | 171.0 | 244.0 | 296.0 | 345.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 91.0 | 18.0 | 25.0 | 35.0 | 57.0 | 137.0 | 190.0 | 226.0 | 262.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 86.0 | 21.0 | 27.0 | 37.0 | 56.0 | 123.0 | 165.0 | 194.0 | 222.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 75.0 | 17.0 | 22.0 | 30.0 | 48.0 | 110.0 | 150.0 | 177.0 | 203.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 59.0 | 16.0 | 21.0 | 27.0 | 40.0 | 82.0 | 108.0 | 125.0 | 142.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 59.0 | 18.0 | 22.0 | 29.0 | 41.0 | 80.0 | 104.0 | 120.0 | 135.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 47.0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 31.0 | 69.0 | 93.0 | 110.0 | 126.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 43.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 64.0 | 87.0 | 104.0 | 119.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 35.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 15.0 | 23.0 | 50.0 | 67.0 | 78.0 | 89.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 32.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 47.0 | 63.0 | 75.0 | 85.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 28.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 39.0 | 52.0 | 61.0 | 69.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 25.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 18.0 | 34.0 | 43.0 | 49.0 | 54.0 |
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