Prediction 1721
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Paraná |
Description:
Validation 2 (NegBinom Baseline model)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 59.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 28.0 | 106.0 | 166.0 | 210.0 | 254.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 70.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 15.0 | 34.0 | 124.0 | 193.0 | 243.0 | 292.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 81.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 40.0 | 143.0 | 221.0 | 277.0 | 333.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 89.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 19.0 | 43.0 | 160.0 | 250.0 | 316.0 | 381.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 108.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 19.0 | 48.0 | 206.0 | 333.0 | 428.0 | 522.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 119.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 48.0 | 241.0 | 404.0 | 527.0 | 651.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 161.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 23.0 | 65.0 | 329.0 | 552.0 | 722.0 | 892.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 186.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 28.0 | 77.0 | 371.0 | 616.0 | 800.0 | 985.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 221.0 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 30.0 | 88.0 | 452.0 | 762.0 | 998.0 | 1235.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 262.0 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 32.0 | 100.0 | 555.0 | 951.0 | 1256.0 | 1562.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 253.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 27.0 | 91.0 | 554.0 | 970.0 | 1291.0 | 1616.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 226.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 28.0 | 86.0 | 477.0 | 818.0 | 1079.0 | 1341.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 285.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 25.0 | 94.0 | 657.0 | 1184.0 | 1596.0 | 2014.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 377.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 27.0 | 115.0 | 913.0 | 1693.0 | 2309.0 | 2940.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 464.0 | 7.0 | 17.0 | 44.0 | 158.0 | 1049.0 | 1871.0 | 2512.0 | 3161.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 538.0 | 11.0 | 26.0 | 62.0 | 198.0 | 1161.0 | 2016.0 | 2674.0 | 3339.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 683.0 | 24.0 | 49.0 | 102.0 | 281.0 | 1372.0 | 2284.0 | 2975.0 | 3666.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 814.0 | 40.0 | 76.0 | 145.0 | 362.0 | 1557.0 | 2516.0 | 3233.0 | 3946.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 955.0 | 62.0 | 110.0 | 197.0 | 453.0 | 1750.0 | 2754.0 | 3498.0 | 4232.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 1098.0 | 89.0 | 150.0 | 255.0 | 548.0 | 1942.0 | 2989.0 | 3757.0 | 4512.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 1273.0 | 128.0 | 205.0 | 332.0 | 669.0 | 2172.0 | 3268.0 | 4063.0 | 4842.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 1430.0 | 169.0 | 259.0 | 406.0 | 780.0 | 2376.0 | 3512.0 | 4332.0 | 5130.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 1658.0 | 235.0 | 347.0 | 521.0 | 946.0 | 2667.0 | 3859.0 | 4711.0 | 5536.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 1834.0 | 292.0 | 420.0 | 614.0 | 1077.0 | 2889.0 | 4121.0 | 4996.0 | 5841.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 1897.0 | 314.0 | 446.0 | 648.0 | 1124.0 | 2967.0 | 4213.0 | 5096.0 | 5947.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1992.0 | 347.0 | 488.0 | 701.0 | 1196.0 | 3085.0 | 4352.0 | 5247.0 | 6109.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 2011.0 | 354.0 | 497.0 | 712.0 | 1211.0 | 3110.0 | 4380.0 | 5277.0 | 6141.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 1855.0 | 299.0 | 429.0 | 626.0 | 1093.0 | 2915.0 | 4152.0 | 5030.0 | 5877.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 1663.0 | 237.0 | 349.0 | 523.0 | 949.0 | 2673.0 | 3866.0 | 4718.0 | 5543.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 1468.0 | 179.0 | 273.0 | 425.0 | 807.0 | 2424.0 | 3571.0 | 4395.0 | 5198.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 1234.0 | 119.0 | 192.0 | 315.0 | 641.0 | 2121.0 | 3206.0 | 3996.0 | 4769.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 923.0 | 57.0 | 102.0 | 185.0 | 432.0 | 1707.0 | 2701.0 | 3439.0 | 4169.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 695.0 | 25.0 | 51.0 | 106.0 | 288.0 | 1388.0 | 2305.0 | 2998.0 | 3692.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 483.0 | 8.0 | 19.0 | 49.0 | 168.0 | 1078.0 | 1909.0 | 2555.0 | 3208.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 372.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 26.0 | 112.0 | 905.0 | 1682.0 | 2297.0 | 2927.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 331.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 20.0 | 93.0 | 838.0 | 1594.0 | 2197.0 | 2816.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 242.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 66.0 | 627.0 | 1206.0 | 1671.0 | 2149.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 168.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 52.0 | 403.0 | 743.0 | 1011.0 | 1284.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 121.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 37.0 | 295.0 | 549.0 | 749.0 | 955.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 99.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 30.0 | 239.0 | 442.0 | 602.0 | 766.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 21.0 | 192.0 | 364.0 | 502.0 | 643.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 20.0 | 168.0 | 313.0 | 428.0 | 545.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 60.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 21.0 | 132.0 | 232.0 | 309.0 | 387.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 50.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 18.0 | 108.0 | 187.0 | 248.0 | 309.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 48.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 20.0 | 95.0 | 157.0 | 203.0 | 249.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 49.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 21.0 | 96.0 | 159.0 | 206.0 | 253.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 48.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 21.0 | 93.0 | 150.0 | 194.0 | 237.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 47.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 21.0 | 90.0 | 145.0 | 186.0 | 226.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 48.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 21.0 | 92.0 | 149.0 | 192.0 | 234.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 48.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 22.0 | 91.0 | 146.0 | 187.0 | 228.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 52.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 26.0 | 92.0 | 141.0 | 177.0 | 213.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 56.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 27.0 | 99.0 | 153.0 | 193.0 | 232.0 |
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