Prediction 186

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 1.56 - 1.48 - - - - 1.65 -
2022-07-03 1.69 - 1.60 - - - - 1.78 -
2022-07-10 1.52 - 1.43 - - - - 1.60 -
2022-07-17 1.54 - 1.46 - - - - 1.63 -
2022-07-24 1.27 - 1.20 - - - - 1.35 -
2022-07-31 1.15 - 1.08 - - - - 1.23 -
2022-08-07 1.36 - 1.28 - - - - 1.44 -
2022-08-14 1.15 - 1.08 - - - - 1.22 -
2022-08-21 0.93 - 0.87 - - - - 1.00 -
2022-08-28 1.04 - 0.98 - - - - 1.11 -
2022-09-04 0.93 - 0.86 - - - - 0.99 -
2022-09-11 1.00 - 0.93 - - - - 1.07 -
2022-09-18 1.04 - 0.97 - - - - 1.11 -
2022-09-25 0.97 - 0.91 - - - - 1.04 -
2022-10-02 0.99 - 0.93 - - - - 1.06 -
2022-10-09 1.01 - 0.94 - - - - 1.08 -
2022-10-16 1.10 - 1.03 - - - - 1.17 -
2022-10-23 0.94 - 0.88 - - - - 1.00 -
2022-10-30 1.05 - 0.98 - - - - 1.12 -
2022-11-06 1.31 - 1.23 - - - - 1.38 -
2022-11-13 1.57 - 1.48 - - - - 1.66 -
2022-11-20 1.88 - 1.78 - - - - 1.98 -
2022-11-27 2.09 - 1.99 - - - - 2.20 -
2022-12-04 1.91 - 1.81 - - - - 2.01 -
2022-12-11 2.13 - 2.03 - - - - 2.24 -
2022-12-18 2.10 - 2.00 - - - - 2.21 -
2022-12-25 2.09 - 1.99 - - - - 2.19 -
2023-01-01 8.80 - 1.74 - - - - 27.35 -
2023-01-08 9.13 - 1.80 - - - - 28.38 -
2023-01-15 9.65 - 1.91 - - - - 30.00 -
2023-01-22 15.40 - 3.04 - - - - 47.87 -
2023-01-29 16.37 - 3.23 - - - - 50.88 -
2023-02-05 17.78 - 3.51 - - - - 55.24 -
2023-02-12 20.72 - 4.09 - - - - 64.39 -
2023-02-19 10.08 - 1.99 - - - - 31.31 -
2023-02-26 21.38 - 4.22 - - - - 66.45 -
2023-03-05 19.28 - 3.81 - - - - 59.93 -
2023-03-12 17.83 - 3.52 - - - - 55.40 -
2023-03-19 14.54 - 2.87 - - - - 45.17 -
2023-03-26 7.83 - 1.55 - - - - 24.34 -
2023-04-02 12.51 - 2.47 - - - - 38.87 -
2023-04-09 9.70 - 1.92 - - - - 30.14 -
2023-04-16 6.82 - 1.35 - - - - 21.18 -
2023-04-23 7.29 - 1.44 - - - - 22.66 -
2023-04-30 6.64 - 1.31 - - - - 20.62 -
2023-05-07 6.48 - 1.28 - - - - 20.14 -
2023-05-14 5.60 - 1.11 - - - - 17.41 -
2023-05-21 4.75 - 0.94 - - - - 14.77 -
2023-05-28 5.18 - 1.02 - - - - 16.10 -
2023-06-04 4.97 - 0.98 - - - - 15.45 -
2023-06-11 4.70 - 0.93 - - - - 14.60 -
2023-06-18 4.35 - 0.86 - - - - 13.53 -
2023-06-25 3.44 - 0.68 - - - - 10.71 -
2023-07-02 3.72 - 0.73 - - - - 11.55 -
2023-07-09 3.34 - 0.66 - - - - 10.39 -
2023-07-16 3.40 - 0.67 - - - - 10.58 -
2023-07-23 2.80 - 0.55 - - - - 8.72 -
2023-07-30 2.54 - 0.50 - - - - 7.90 -
2023-08-06 3.00 - 0.59 - - - - 9.33 -
2023-08-13 2.53 - 0.50 - - - - 7.87 -
2023-08-20 2.06 - 0.41 - - - - 6.39 -
2023-08-27 2.30 - 0.45 - - - - 7.15 -
2023-09-03 2.04 - 0.40 - - - - 6.35 -
2023-09-10 2.20 - 0.43 - - - - 6.84 -
2023-09-17 2.29 - 0.45 - - - - 7.13 -
2023-09-24 2.15 - 0.42 - - - - 6.68 -
2023-10-01 2.19 - 0.43 - - - - 6.81 -