Prediction 187

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 27.62 - 27.11 - - - - 28.12 -
2022-07-03 22.77 - 22.32 - - - - 23.23 -
2022-07-10 23.03 - 22.58 - - - - 23.48 -
2022-07-17 15.35 - 14.99 - - - - 15.71 -
2022-07-24 15.85 - 15.49 - - - - 16.22 -
2022-07-31 13.32 - 12.99 - - - - 13.65 -
2022-08-07 12.98 - 12.66 - - - - 13.31 -
2022-08-14 12.68 - 12.36 - - - - 13.00 -
2022-08-21 10.58 - 10.30 - - - - 10.88 -
2022-08-28 9.20 - 8.94 - - - - 9.48 -
2022-09-04 9.05 - 8.78 - - - - 9.32 -
2022-09-11 7.51 - 7.27 - - - - 7.76 -
2022-09-18 7.79 - 7.55 - - - - 8.04 -
2022-09-25 7.03 - 6.80 - - - - 7.26 -
2022-10-02 5.93 - 5.72 - - - - 6.15 -
2022-10-09 6.48 - 6.26 - - - - 6.71 -
2022-10-16 5.39 - 5.19 - - - - 5.60 -
2022-10-23 4.45 - 4.27 - - - - 4.63 -
2022-10-30 5.42 - 5.22 - - - - 5.63 -
2022-11-06 5.47 - 5.27 - - - - 5.67 -
2022-11-13 5.99 - 5.78 - - - - 6.21 -
2022-11-20 6.72 - 6.49 - - - - 6.95 -
2022-11-27 6.22 - 6.00 - - - - 6.44 -
2022-12-04 6.97 - 6.74 - - - - 7.20 -
2022-12-11 5.91 - 5.70 - - - - 6.12 -
2022-12-18 5.30 - 5.10 - - - - 5.50 -
2022-12-25 4.54 - 4.37 - - - - 4.72 -
2023-01-01 4.93 - 1.25 - - - - 13.49 -
2023-01-08 5.50 - 1.40 - - - - 15.07 -
2023-01-15 6.46 - 1.64 - - - - 17.68 -
2023-01-22 7.87 - 2.00 - - - - 21.55 -
2023-01-29 9.29 - 2.37 - - - - 25.44 -
2023-02-05 10.51 - 2.67 - - - - 28.76 -
2023-02-12 12.85 - 3.27 - - - - 35.19 -
2023-02-19 10.86 - 2.77 - - - - 29.74 -
2023-02-26 16.46 - 4.19 - - - - 45.07 -
2023-03-05 16.90 - 4.30 - - - - 46.28 -
2023-03-12 15.45 - 3.93 - - - - 42.29 -
2023-03-19 17.63 - 4.49 - - - - 48.27 -
2023-03-26 20.62 - 5.25 - - - - 56.44 -
2023-04-02 27.40 - 6.98 - - - - 75.00 -
2023-04-09 30.60 - 7.79 - - - - 83.77 -
2023-04-16 27.14 - 6.91 - - - - 74.31 -
2023-04-23 29.99 - 7.64 - - - - 82.10 -
2023-04-30 34.89 - 8.88 - - - - 95.51 -
2023-05-07 32.86 - 8.37 - - - - 89.97 -
2023-05-14 30.40 - 7.74 - - - - 83.22 -
2023-05-21 32.46 - 8.27 - - - - 88.87 -
2023-05-28 24.90 - 6.34 - - - - 68.17 -
2023-06-04 23.67 - 6.03 - - - - 64.80 -
2023-06-11 23.37 - 5.95 - - - - 63.97 -
2023-06-18 17.82 - 4.54 - - - - 48.77 -
2023-06-25 17.30 - 4.40 - - - - 47.36 -
2023-07-02 14.26 - 3.63 - - - - 39.05 -
2023-07-09 14.42 - 3.67 - - - - 39.49 -
2023-07-16 9.61 - 2.45 - - - - 26.32 -
2023-07-23 9.93 - 2.53 - - - - 27.18 -
2023-07-30 8.34 - 2.12 - - - - 22.84 -
2023-08-06 8.13 - 2.07 - - - - 22.27 -
2023-08-13 7.94 - 2.02 - - - - 21.74 -
2023-08-20 6.63 - 1.69 - - - - 18.15 -
2023-08-27 5.76 - 1.47 - - - - 15.78 -
2023-09-03 5.67 - 1.44 - - - - 15.52 -
2023-09-10 4.70 - 1.20 - - - - 12.88 -
2023-09-17 4.88 - 1.24 - - - - 13.37 -
2023-09-24 4.40 - 1.12 - - - - 12.05 -
2023-10-01 3.72 - 0.95 - - - - 10.17 -
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