Prediction 188

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 49.58 - 48.63 - - - - 50.54 -
2022-07-03 26.61 - 25.93 - - - - 27.30 -
2022-07-10 34.66 - 33.88 - - - - 35.45 -
2022-07-17 30.22 - 29.49 - - - - 30.96 -
2022-07-24 24.69 - 24.04 - - - - 25.35 -
2022-07-31 22.41 - 21.79 - - - - 23.04 -
2022-08-07 22.41 - 21.79 - - - - 23.04 -
2022-08-14 21.41 - 20.81 - - - - 22.03 -
2022-08-21 16.68 - 16.15 - - - - 17.22 -
2022-08-28 16.52 - 16.00 - - - - 17.06 -
2022-09-04 14.59 - 14.10 - - - - 15.10 -
2022-09-11 20.33 - 19.75 - - - - 20.94 -
2022-09-18 20.92 - 20.32 - - - - 21.53 -
2022-09-25 21.74 - 21.13 - - - - 22.37 -
2022-10-02 18.72 - 18.16 - - - - 19.29 -
2022-10-09 22.91 - 22.28 - - - - 23.55 -
2022-10-16 26.12 - 25.45 - - - - 26.81 -
2022-10-23 27.10 - 26.42 - - - - 27.80 -
2022-10-30 24.30 - 23.66 - - - - 24.96 -
2022-11-06 28.51 - 27.81 - - - - 29.23 -
2022-11-13 30.71 - 29.98 - - - - 31.46 -
2022-11-20 33.78 - 33.01 - - - - 34.56 -
2022-11-27 34.32 - 33.54 - - - - 35.11 -
2022-12-04 50.35 - 49.39 - - - - 51.32 -
2022-12-11 41.28 - 40.42 - - - - 42.15 -
2022-12-18 35.07 - 34.29 - - - - 35.87 -
2022-12-25 41.26 - 40.46 - - - - 42.08 -
2023-01-01 43.37 - 12.57 - - - - 110.65 -
2023-01-08 48.64 - 14.09 - - - - 124.11 -
2023-01-15 53.76 - 15.58 - - - - 137.18 -
2023-01-22 59.27 - 17.17 - - - - 151.21 -
2023-01-29 59.76 - 17.31 - - - - 152.47 -
2023-02-05 67.08 - 19.44 - - - - 171.14 -
2023-02-12 75.37 - 21.84 - - - - 192.29 -
2023-02-19 80.62 - 23.36 - - - - 205.68 -
2023-02-26 81.64 - 23.66 - - - - 208.29 -
2023-03-05 85.08 - 24.65 - - - - 217.07 -
2023-03-12 90.69 - 26.28 - - - - 231.39 -
2023-03-19 84.10 - 24.37 - - - - 214.58 -
2023-03-26 80.73 - 23.39 - - - - 205.97 -
2023-04-02 87.47 - 25.34 - - - - 223.16 -
2023-04-09 68.22 - 19.77 - - - - 174.06 -
2023-04-16 81.83 - 23.71 - - - - 208.78 -
2023-04-23 78.88 - 22.85 - - - - 201.24 -
2023-04-30 76.39 - 22.13 - - - - 194.89 -
2023-05-07 73.02 - 21.16 - - - - 186.30 -
2023-05-14 68.52 - 19.86 - - - - 174.83 -
2023-05-21 51.68 - 14.98 - - - - 131.86 -
2023-05-28 46.35 - 13.43 - - - - 118.25 -
2023-06-04 43.80 - 12.69 - - - - 111.77 -
2023-06-11 33.15 - 9.60 - - - - 84.58 -
2023-06-18 28.11 - 8.14 - - - - 71.72 -
2023-06-25 24.05 - 6.97 - - - - 61.36 -
2023-07-02 12.91 - 3.74 - - - - 32.94 -
2023-07-09 16.81 - 4.87 - - - - 42.89 -
2023-07-16 14.66 - 4.25 - - - - 37.40 -
2023-07-23 11.97 - 3.47 - - - - 30.56 -
2023-07-30 10.87 - 3.15 - - - - 27.74 -
2023-08-06 10.87 - 3.15 - - - - 27.73 -
2023-08-13 10.38 - 3.01 - - - - 26.50 -
2023-08-20 8.09 - 2.34 - - - - 20.64 -
2023-08-27 8.01 - 2.32 - - - - 20.45 -
2023-09-03 7.08 - 2.05 - - - - 18.06 -
2023-09-10 9.86 - 2.86 - - - - 25.17 -
2023-09-17 10.15 - 2.94 - - - - 25.89 -
2023-09-24 10.55 - 3.05 - - - - 26.91 -
2023-10-01 9.08 - 2.63 - - - - 23.17 -