Prediction 189

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
Download CSV Dashboard
Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


Mostrar Tabela
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 5.62 - 5.52 - - - - 5.72 -
2022-07-03 4.27 - 4.18 - - - - 4.36 -
2022-07-10 3.15 - 3.08 - - - - 3.23 -
2022-07-17 2.11 - 2.04 - - - - 2.17 -
2022-07-24 2.13 - 2.06 - - - - 2.19 -
2022-07-31 1.68 - 1.62 - - - - 1.73 -
2022-08-07 1.79 - 1.74 - - - - 1.85 -
2022-08-14 1.69 - 1.63 - - - - 1.74 -
2022-08-21 1.89 - 1.83 - - - - 1.95 -
2022-08-28 1.57 - 1.52 - - - - 1.63 -
2022-09-04 1.74 - 1.69 - - - - 1.80 -
2022-09-11 1.87 - 1.81 - - - - 1.92 -
2022-09-18 2.01 - 1.95 - - - - 2.07 -
2022-09-25 1.91 - 1.85 - - - - 1.97 -
2022-10-02 1.95 - 1.89 - - - - 2.01 -
2022-10-09 1.80 - 1.74 - - - - 1.85 -
2022-10-16 2.15 - 2.08 - - - - 2.21 -
2022-10-23 2.04 - 1.98 - - - - 2.10 -
2022-10-30 2.22 - 2.16 - - - - 2.28 -
2022-11-06 2.44 - 2.37 - - - - 2.50 -
2022-11-13 2.62 - 2.55 - - - - 2.69 -
2022-11-20 3.37 - 3.29 - - - - 3.45 -
2022-11-27 3.47 - 3.39 - - - - 3.55 -
2022-12-04 4.34 - 4.25 - - - - 4.44 -
2022-12-11 4.72 - 4.62 - - - - 4.81 -
2022-12-18 5.05 - 4.95 - - - - 5.15 -
2022-12-25 5.44 - 5.34 - - - - 5.54 -
2023-01-01 12.22 - 1.12 - - - - 51.26 -
2023-01-08 16.05 - 1.47 - - - - 67.30 -
2023-01-15 18.30 - 1.68 - - - - 76.74 -
2023-01-22 21.04 - 1.93 - - - - 88.23 -
2023-01-29 20.52 - 1.88 - - - - 86.05 -
2023-02-05 28.48 - 2.62 - - - - 119.43 -
2023-02-12 35.61 - 3.27 - - - - 149.34 -
2023-02-19 34.53 - 3.17 - - - - 144.79 -
2023-02-26 39.10 - 3.59 - - - - 163.96 -
2023-03-05 49.76 - 4.57 - - - - 208.67 -
2023-03-12 49.03 - 4.50 - - - - 205.57 -
2023-03-19 52.82 - 4.85 - - - - 221.48 -
2023-03-26 49.03 - 4.50 - - - - 205.58 -
2023-04-02 63.31 - 5.81 - - - - 265.47 -
2023-04-09 60.92 - 5.59 - - - - 255.46 -
2023-04-16 55.41 - 5.09 - - - - 232.34 -
2023-04-23 54.09 - 4.97 - - - - 226.81 -
2023-04-30 49.26 - 4.52 - - - - 206.54 -
2023-05-07 44.79 - 4.11 - - - - 187.79 -
2023-05-14 39.22 - 3.60 - - - - 164.48 -
2023-05-21 27.49 - 2.52 - - - - 115.28 -
2023-05-28 16.85 - 1.55 - - - - 70.68 -
2023-06-04 17.28 - 1.59 - - - - 72.46 -
2023-06-11 12.27 - 1.13 - - - - 51.43 -
2023-06-18 7.66 - 0.70 - - - - 32.14 -
2023-06-25 6.36 - 0.58 - - - - 26.67 -
2023-07-02 4.83 - 0.44 - - - - 20.25 -
2023-07-09 3.57 - 0.33 - - - - 14.96 -
2023-07-16 2.38 - 0.22 - - - - 9.99 -
2023-07-23 2.41 - 0.22 - - - - 10.09 -
2023-07-30 1.90 - 0.17 - - - - 7.96 -
2023-08-06 2.03 - 0.19 - - - - 8.51 -
2023-08-13 1.91 - 0.18 - - - - 8.01 -
2023-08-20 2.13 - 0.20 - - - - 8.95 -
2023-08-27 1.78 - 0.16 - - - - 7.46 -
2023-09-03 1.97 - 0.18 - - - - 8.26 -
2023-09-10 2.11 - 0.19 - - - - 8.85 -
2023-09-17 2.28 - 0.21 - - - - 9.54 -
2023-09-24 2.16 - 0.20 - - - - 9.06 -
2023-10-01 2.21 - 0.20 - - - - 9.26 -