Prediction 190

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 14.62 - 14.22 - - - - 15.02 -
2022-07-03 11.99 - 11.64 - - - - 12.35 -
2022-07-10 10.19 - 9.87 - - - - 10.53 -
2022-07-17 8.55 - 8.26 - - - - 8.86 -
2022-07-24 8.32 - 8.03 - - - - 8.62 -
2022-07-31 7.92 - 7.63 - - - - 8.21 -
2022-08-07 8.03 - 7.75 - - - - 8.33 -
2022-08-14 7.65 - 7.37 - - - - 7.93 -
2022-08-21 8.22 - 7.93 - - - - 8.52 -
2022-08-28 8.23 - 7.94 - - - - 8.53 -
2022-09-04 8.80 - 8.50 - - - - 9.11 -
2022-09-11 10.20 - 9.87 - - - - 10.53 -
2022-09-18 9.25 - 8.95 - - - - 9.57 -
2022-09-25 9.38 - 9.07 - - - - 9.70 -
2022-10-02 9.26 - 8.95 - - - - 9.58 -
2022-10-09 10.73 - 10.40 - - - - 11.07 -
2022-10-16 9.95 - 9.63 - - - - 10.28 -
2022-10-23 11.73 - 11.38 - - - - 12.09 -
2022-10-30 11.86 - 11.51 - - - - 12.22 -
2022-11-06 14.57 - 14.18 - - - - 14.97 -
2022-11-13 15.54 - 15.14 - - - - 15.96 -
2022-11-20 18.00 - 17.56 - - - - 18.44 -
2022-11-27 18.56 - 18.12 - - - - 19.02 -
2022-12-04 19.03 - 18.58 - - - - 19.49 -
2022-12-11 22.53 - 22.04 - - - - 23.03 -
2022-12-18 20.92 - 20.45 - - - - 21.41 -
2022-12-25 14.55 - 14.21 - - - - 14.90 -
2023-01-01 10.54 - 1.09 - - - - 42.52 -
2023-01-08 13.65 - 1.41 - - - - 55.06 -
2023-01-15 16.86 - 1.74 - - - - 68.02 -
2023-01-22 21.93 - 2.26 - - - - 88.48 -
2023-01-29 22.84 - 2.36 - - - - 92.16 -
2023-02-05 30.03 - 3.10 - - - - 121.15 -
2023-02-12 34.52 - 3.56 - - - - 139.30 -
2023-02-19 37.88 - 3.91 - - - - 152.82 -
2023-02-26 46.60 - 4.81 - - - - 188.00 -
2023-03-05 38.17 - 3.94 - - - - 154.02 -
2023-03-12 55.67 - 5.75 - - - - 224.62 -
2023-03-19 51.01 - 5.27 - - - - 205.81 -
2023-03-26 52.88 - 5.46 - - - - 213.34 -
2023-04-02 54.16 - 5.59 - - - - 218.53 -
2023-04-09 49.89 - 5.15 - - - - 201.30 -
2023-04-16 44.11 - 4.55 - - - - 177.95 -
2023-04-23 41.30 - 4.26 - - - - 166.62 -
2023-04-30 37.66 - 3.89 - - - - 151.95 -
2023-05-07 36.44 - 3.76 - - - - 147.04 -
2023-05-14 25.19 - 2.60 - - - - 101.64 -
2023-05-21 19.58 - 2.02 - - - - 78.99 -
2023-05-28 13.27 - 1.37 - - - - 53.54 -
2023-06-04 10.91 - 1.13 - - - - 44.00 -
2023-06-11 9.31 - 0.96 - - - - 37.58 -
2023-06-18 9.50 - 0.98 - - - - 38.34 -
2023-06-25 6.17 - 0.64 - - - - 24.91 -
2023-07-02 5.06 - 0.52 - - - - 20.44 -
2023-07-09 4.31 - 0.44 - - - - 17.37 -
2023-07-16 3.61 - 0.37 - - - - 14.58 -
2023-07-23 3.52 - 0.36 - - - - 14.19 -
2023-07-30 3.34 - 0.35 - - - - 13.49 -
2023-08-06 3.39 - 0.35 - - - - 13.69 -
2023-08-13 3.23 - 0.33 - - - - 13.03 -
2023-08-20 3.47 - 0.36 - - - - 14.01 -
2023-08-27 3.48 - 0.36 - - - - 14.03 -
2023-09-03 3.72 - 0.38 - - - - 15.00 -
2023-09-10 4.31 - 0.44 - - - - 17.38 -
2023-09-17 3.91 - 0.40 - - - - 15.77 -
2023-09-24 3.96 - 0.41 - - - - 15.99 -
2023-10-01 3.91 - 0.40 - - - - 15.78 -
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