Prediction 191

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 4.31 - 4.12 - - - - 4.51 -
2023-06-18 4.00 - 3.81 - - - - 4.19 -
2023-06-25 3.23 - 3.07 - - - - 3.40 -
2023-07-02 3.57 - 3.40 - - - - 3.75 -
2023-07-09 3.25 - 3.08 - - - - 3.41 -
2023-07-16 3.14 - 2.99 - - - - 3.31 -
2023-07-23 2.67 - 2.53 - - - - 2.82 -
2023-07-30 2.45 - 2.31 - - - - 2.59 -
2023-08-06 2.81 - 2.67 - - - - 2.97 -
2023-08-13 2.41 - 2.28 - - - - 2.55 -
2023-08-20 1.92 - 1.80 - - - - 2.05 -
2023-08-27 2.17 - 2.04 - - - - 2.30 -
2023-09-03 1.93 - 1.81 - - - - 2.06 -
2023-09-10 2.05 - 1.93 - - - - 2.18 -
2023-09-17 2.40 - 2.26 - - - - 2.54 -
2023-09-24 2.44 - 2.30 - - - - 2.58 -
2023-10-01 2.53 - 2.39 - - - - 2.67 -
2023-10-08 2.55 - 2.41 - - - - 2.70 -
2023-10-15 2.59 - 2.45 - - - - 2.74 -
2023-10-22 2.29 - 2.16 - - - - 2.43 -
2023-10-29 2.60 - 2.45 - - - - 2.74 -
2023-11-05 3.00 - 2.85 - - - - 3.16 -
2023-11-12 3.60 - 3.42 - - - - 3.77 -
2023-11-19 4.19 - 4.00 - - - - 4.39 -
2023-11-26 4.62 - 4.42 - - - - 4.83 -
2023-12-03 4.05 - 3.87 - - - - 4.24 -
2023-12-10 4.73 - 4.53 - - - - 4.94 -
2023-12-17 4.64 - 4.44 - - - - 4.85 -
2023-12-24 4.64 - 4.45 - - - - 4.84 -
2023-12-31 9.32 - 2.08 - - - - 27.29 -
2024-01-07 9.52 - 2.12 - - - - 27.89 -
2024-01-14 9.99 - 2.23 - - - - 29.27 -
2024-01-21 15.39 - 3.43 - - - - 45.10 -
2024-01-28 16.21 - 3.62 - - - - 47.50 -
2024-02-04 17.51 - 3.91 - - - - 51.30 -
2024-02-11 19.95 - 4.45 - - - - 58.45 -
2024-02-18 10.07 - 2.25 - - - - 29.51 -
2024-02-25 20.58 - 4.59 - - - - 60.28 -
2024-03-03 18.62 - 4.15 - - - - 54.56 -
2024-03-10 17.00 - 3.79 - - - - 49.79 -
2024-03-17 14.11 - 3.15 - - - - 41.35 -
2024-03-24 7.81 - 1.74 - - - - 22.88 -
2024-03-31 12.17 - 2.71 - - - - 35.66 -
2024-04-07 9.68 - 2.16 - - - - 28.37 -
2024-04-14 6.98 - 1.56 - - - - 20.46 -
2024-04-21 7.47 - 1.66 - - - - 21.88 -
2024-04-28 6.88 - 1.53 - - - - 20.15 -
2024-05-05 6.47 - 1.44 - - - - 18.97 -
2024-05-12 5.93 - 1.32 - - - - 17.37 -
2024-05-19 4.67 - 1.04 - - - - 13.69 -
2024-05-26 5.28 - 1.18 - - - - 15.46 -
2024-06-02 5.01 - 1.12 - - - - 14.68 -
2024-06-09 4.66 - 1.04 - - - - 13.65 -
2024-06-16 4.32 - 0.96 - - - - 12.65 -
2024-06-23 3.49 - 0.78 - - - - 10.22 -
2024-06-30 3.85 - 0.86 - - - - 11.30 -
2024-07-07 3.51 - 0.78 - - - - 10.28 -
2024-07-14 3.40 - 0.76 - - - - 9.96 -
2024-07-21 2.88 - 0.64 - - - - 8.46 -
2024-07-28 2.65 - 0.59 - - - - 7.76 -
2024-08-04 3.04 - 0.68 - - - - 8.91 -
2024-08-11 2.61 - 0.58 - - - - 7.64 -
2024-08-18 2.08 - 0.46 - - - - 6.09 -
2024-08-25 2.34 - 0.52 - - - - 6.87 -
2024-09-01 2.09 - 0.46 - - - - 6.12 -
2024-09-08 2.22 - 0.49 - - - - 6.51 -
2024-09-15 2.59 - 0.58 - - - - 7.60 -
2024-09-22 2.63 - 0.59 - - - - 7.72 -
2024-09-29 2.73 - 0.61 - - - - 8.00 -
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