Prediction 192

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 13.91 - 13.66 - - - - 14.18 -
2023-06-18 10.61 - 10.40 - - - - 10.82 -
2023-06-25 11.18 - 10.96 - - - - 11.41 -
2023-07-02 8.08 - 7.90 - - - - 8.25 -
2023-07-09 8.87 - 8.69 - - - - 9.06 -
2023-07-16 6.29 - 6.15 - - - - 6.44 -
2023-07-23 6.29 - 6.15 - - - - 6.44 -
2023-07-30 5.38 - 5.25 - - - - 5.52 -
2023-08-06 5.10 - 4.97 - - - - 5.23 -
2023-08-13 5.09 - 4.96 - - - - 5.22 -
2023-08-20 3.76 - 3.65 - - - - 3.87 -
2023-08-27 3.16 - 3.06 - - - - 3.26 -
2023-09-03 3.14 - 3.04 - - - - 3.23 -
2023-09-10 2.66 - 2.57 - - - - 2.75 -
2023-09-17 2.88 - 2.79 - - - - 2.97 -
2023-09-24 2.64 - 2.55 - - - - 2.72 -
2023-10-01 2.24 - 2.16 - - - - 2.32 -
2023-10-08 2.33 - 2.25 - - - - 2.41 -
2023-10-15 1.94 - 1.87 - - - - 2.02 -
2023-10-22 1.63 - 1.56 - - - - 1.69 -
2023-10-29 1.94 - 1.87 - - - - 2.01 -
2023-11-05 1.88 - 1.81 - - - - 1.95 -
2023-11-12 2.21 - 2.14 - - - - 2.29 -
2023-11-19 2.22 - 2.15 - - - - 2.30 -
2023-11-26 2.07 - 2.00 - - - - 2.15 -
2023-12-03 2.39 - 2.31 - - - - 2.47 -
2023-12-10 2.02 - 1.94 - - - - 2.09 -
2023-12-17 1.76 - 1.69 - - - - 1.83 -
2023-12-24 1.60 - 1.54 - - - - 1.66 -
2023-12-31 4.97 - 1.32 - - - - 13.29 -
2024-01-07 5.42 - 1.44 - - - - 14.48 -
2024-01-14 6.12 - 1.63 - - - - 16.37 -
2024-01-21 7.71 - 2.05 - - - - 20.61 -
2024-01-28 9.09 - 2.42 - - - - 24.30 -
2024-02-04 10.28 - 2.73 - - - - 27.47 -
2024-02-11 12.47 - 3.32 - - - - 33.32 -
2024-02-18 10.35 - 2.75 - - - - 27.66 -
2024-02-25 15.92 - 4.24 - - - - 42.55 -
2024-03-03 17.26 - 4.59 - - - - 46.13 -
2024-03-10 15.86 - 4.22 - - - - 42.39 -
2024-03-17 18.00 - 4.79 - - - - 48.12 -
2024-03-24 20.33 - 5.41 - - - - 54.34 -
2024-03-31 26.23 - 6.98 - - - - 70.12 -
2024-04-07 29.64 - 7.89 - - - - 79.22 -
2024-04-14 26.11 - 6.95 - - - - 69.80 -
2024-04-21 28.72 - 7.64 - - - - 76.77 -
2024-04-28 33.13 - 8.82 - - - - 88.56 -
2024-05-05 30.96 - 8.24 - - - - 82.76 -
2024-05-12 28.81 - 7.67 - - - - 77.02 -
2024-05-19 30.83 - 8.20 - - - - 82.40 -
2024-05-26 23.93 - 6.37 - - - - 63.96 -
2024-06-02 22.32 - 5.94 - - - - 59.67 -
2024-06-09 22.58 - 6.01 - - - - 60.35 -
2024-06-16 17.21 - 4.58 - - - - 46.02 -
2024-06-23 18.15 - 4.83 - - - - 48.51 -
2024-06-30 13.10 - 3.49 - - - - 35.03 -
2024-07-07 14.40 - 3.83 - - - - 38.49 -
2024-07-14 10.21 - 2.72 - - - - 27.30 -
2024-07-21 10.21 - 2.72 - - - - 27.29 -
2024-07-28 8.73 - 2.32 - - - - 23.34 -
2024-08-04 8.27 - 2.20 - - - - 22.11 -
2024-08-11 8.26 - 2.20 - - - - 22.07 -
2024-08-18 6.10 - 1.62 - - - - 16.31 -
2024-08-25 5.13 - 1.36 - - - - 13.70 -
2024-09-01 5.09 - 1.35 - - - - 13.61 -
2024-09-08 4.31 - 1.15 - - - - 11.53 -
2024-09-15 4.68 - 1.24 - - - - 12.51 -
2024-09-22 4.28 - 1.14 - - - - 11.44 -
2024-09-29 3.63 - 0.97 - - - - 9.72 -
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