Prediction 193

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 27.56 - 27.11 - - - - 28.02 -
2023-06-18 23.37 - 22.97 - - - - 23.79 -
2023-06-25 20.97 - 20.59 - - - - 21.36 -
2023-07-02 12.56 - 12.28 - - - - 12.85 -
2023-07-09 14.91 - 14.60 - - - - 15.23 -
2023-07-16 13.09 - 12.80 - - - - 13.38 -
2023-07-23 10.49 - 10.24 - - - - 10.76 -
2023-07-30 10.57 - 10.32 - - - - 10.84 -
2023-08-06 7.81 - 7.59 - - - - 8.03 -
2023-08-13 8.46 - 8.23 - - - - 8.69 -
2023-08-20 6.64 - 6.44 - - - - 6.84 -
2023-08-27 8.19 - 7.97 - - - - 8.42 -
2023-09-03 6.63 - 6.43 - - - - 6.83 -
2023-09-10 9.00 - 8.76 - - - - 9.24 -
2023-09-17 8.41 - 8.18 - - - - 8.64 -
2023-09-24 9.78 - 9.53 - - - - 10.03 -
2023-10-01 8.39 - 8.17 - - - - 8.62 -
2023-10-08 8.78 - 8.55 - - - - 9.02 -
2023-10-15 10.35 - 10.10 - - - - 10.61 -
2023-10-22 10.13 - 9.88 - - - - 10.39 -
2023-10-29 9.94 - 9.69 - - - - 10.19 -
2023-11-05 11.66 - 11.39 - - - - 11.93 -
2023-11-12 11.89 - 11.61 - - - - 12.17 -
2023-11-19 14.11 - 13.81 - - - - 14.42 -
2023-11-26 12.68 - 12.40 - - - - 12.97 -
2023-12-03 18.86 - 18.51 - - - - 19.23 -
2023-12-10 15.99 - 15.66 - - - - 16.32 -
2023-12-17 13.84 - 13.54 - - - - 14.14 -
2023-12-24 16.26 - 15.95 - - - - 16.58 -
2023-12-31 43.70 - 13.31 - - - - 108.36 -
2024-01-07 46.04 - 14.03 - - - - 114.15 -
2024-01-14 53.42 - 16.27 - - - - 132.45 -
2024-01-21 58.98 - 17.97 - - - - 146.24 -
2024-01-28 60.16 - 18.33 - - - - 149.14 -
2024-02-04 63.47 - 19.33 - - - - 157.35 -
2024-02-11 72.50 - 22.09 - - - - 179.75 -
2024-02-18 79.43 - 24.20 - - - - 196.93 -
2024-02-25 80.42 - 24.50 - - - - 199.37 -
2024-03-03 83.80 - 25.53 - - - - 207.76 -
2024-03-10 89.49 - 27.26 - - - - 221.87 -
2024-03-17 84.66 - 25.79 - - - - 209.90 -
2024-03-24 79.59 - 24.25 - - - - 197.33 -
2024-03-31 84.48 - 25.74 - - - - 209.44 -
2024-04-07 68.43 - 20.85 - - - - 169.66 -
2024-04-14 82.13 - 25.02 - - - - 203.61 -
2024-04-21 78.68 - 23.97 - - - - 195.06 -
2024-04-28 76.68 - 23.36 - - - - 190.12 -
2024-05-05 72.64 - 22.13 - - - - 180.10 -
2024-05-12 66.85 - 20.36 - - - - 165.73 -
2024-05-19 51.02 - 15.54 - - - - 126.48 -
2024-05-26 45.03 - 13.72 - - - - 111.64 -
2024-06-02 41.91 - 12.77 - - - - 103.90 -
2024-06-09 32.67 - 9.95 - - - - 81.00 -
2024-06-16 27.71 - 8.44 - - - - 68.69 -
2024-06-23 24.86 - 7.57 - - - - 61.64 -
2024-06-30 14.89 - 4.54 - - - - 36.93 -
2024-07-07 17.67 - 5.38 - - - - 43.82 -
2024-07-14 15.52 - 4.73 - - - - 38.47 -
2024-07-21 12.44 - 3.79 - - - - 30.85 -
2024-07-28 12.53 - 3.82 - - - - 31.08 -
2024-08-04 9.25 - 2.82 - - - - 22.95 -
2024-08-11 10.02 - 3.05 - - - - 24.85 -
2024-08-18 7.87 - 2.40 - - - - 19.51 -
2024-08-25 9.71 - 2.96 - - - - 24.08 -
2024-09-01 7.86 - 2.39 - - - - 19.48 -
2024-09-08 10.67 - 3.25 - - - - 26.45 -
2024-09-15 9.96 - 3.03 - - - - 24.71 -
2024-09-22 11.59 - 3.53 - - - - 28.73 -
2024-09-29 9.95 - 3.03 - - - - 24.67 -