Prediction 194

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 47.01 - 46.42 - - - - 47.61 -
2023-06-18 29.39 - 28.93 - - - - 29.86 -
2023-06-25 27.35 - 26.91 - - - - 27.80 -
2023-07-02 20.93 - 20.54 - - - - 21.32 -
2023-07-09 16.09 - 15.75 - - - - 16.43 -
2023-07-16 11.34 - 11.06 - - - - 11.63 -
2023-07-23 11.26 - 10.98 - - - - 11.54 -
2023-07-30 9.26 - 9.01 - - - - 9.52 -
2023-08-06 9.31 - 9.05 - - - - 9.57 -
2023-08-13 8.79 - 8.54 - - - - 9.04 -
2023-08-20 9.47 - 9.22 - - - - 9.74 -
2023-08-27 8.07 - 7.84 - - - - 8.32 -
2023-09-03 9.04 - 8.79 - - - - 9.30 -
2023-09-10 9.66 - 9.41 - - - - 9.93 -
2023-09-17 10.35 - 10.08 - - - - 10.63 -
2023-09-24 9.87 - 9.61 - - - - 10.14 -
2023-10-01 10.13 - 9.87 - - - - 10.40 -
2023-10-08 9.54 - 9.28 - - - - 9.80 -
2023-10-15 11.20 - 10.92 - - - - 11.48 -
2023-10-22 10.48 - 10.21 - - - - 10.76 -
2023-10-29 11.28 - 11.00 - - - - 11.57 -
2023-11-05 12.48 - 12.19 - - - - 12.78 -
2023-11-12 13.63 - 13.32 - - - - 13.95 -
2023-11-19 16.73 - 16.39 - - - - 17.08 -
2023-11-26 17.31 - 16.96 - - - - 17.67 -
2023-12-03 21.24 - 20.85 - - - - 21.64 -
2023-12-10 23.25 - 22.84 - - - - 23.66 -
2023-12-17 24.54 - 24.12 - - - - 24.96 -
2023-12-24 27.31 - 26.88 - - - - 27.74 -
2023-12-31 13.82 - 0.96 - - - - 62.86 -
2024-01-07 17.95 - 1.25 - - - - 81.67 -
2024-01-14 21.01 - 1.47 - - - - 95.59 -
2024-01-21 24.46 - 1.71 - - - - 111.29 -
2024-01-28 25.76 - 1.80 - - - - 117.21 -
2024-02-04 34.92 - 2.44 - - - - 158.89 -
2024-02-11 42.04 - 2.93 - - - - 191.29 -
2024-02-18 42.78 - 2.98 - - - - 194.65 -
2024-02-25 49.50 - 3.45 - - - - 225.20 -
2024-03-03 61.42 - 4.28 - - - - 279.47 -
2024-03-10 62.18 - 4.34 - - - - 282.92 -
2024-03-17 68.20 - 4.76 - - - - 310.32 -
2024-03-24 65.44 - 4.56 - - - - 297.72 -
2024-03-31 77.22 - 5.39 - - - - 351.34 -
2024-04-07 78.39 - 5.47 - - - - 356.66 -
2024-04-14 70.64 - 4.93 - - - - 321.38 -
2024-04-21 67.14 - 4.68 - - - - 305.47 -
2024-04-28 63.33 - 4.42 - - - - 288.15 -
2024-05-05 57.71 - 4.03 - - - - 262.58 -
2024-05-12 49.39 - 3.44 - - - - 224.71 -
2024-05-19 34.71 - 2.42 - - - - 157.91 -
2024-05-26 22.75 - 1.59 - - - - 103.51 -
2024-06-02 21.17 - 1.48 - - - - 96.33 -
2024-06-09 15.37 - 1.07 - - - - 69.95 -
2024-06-16 9.61 - 0.67 - - - - 43.73 -
2024-06-23 8.94 - 0.62 - - - - 40.70 -
2024-06-30 6.84 - 0.48 - - - - 31.14 -
2024-07-07 5.26 - 0.37 - - - - 23.94 -
2024-07-14 3.71 - 0.26 - - - - 16.88 -
2024-07-21 3.68 - 0.26 - - - - 16.75 -
2024-07-28 3.03 - 0.21 - - - - 13.78 -
2024-08-04 3.04 - 0.21 - - - - 13.85 -
2024-08-11 2.87 - 0.20 - - - - 13.07 -
2024-08-18 3.10 - 0.22 - - - - 14.10 -
2024-08-25 2.64 - 0.18 - - - - 12.01 -
2024-09-01 2.96 - 0.21 - - - - 13.45 -
2024-09-08 3.16 - 0.22 - - - - 14.38 -
2024-09-15 3.39 - 0.24 - - - - 15.40 -
2024-09-22 3.23 - 0.23 - - - - 14.69 -
2024-09-29 3.31 - 0.23 - - - - 15.07 -
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