Prediction 195

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 24.61 - 24.12 - - - - 25.10 -
2023-06-18 25.10 - 24.61 - - - - 25.60 -
2023-06-25 20.05 - 19.62 - - - - 20.50 -
2023-07-02 16.01 - 15.62 - - - - 16.40 -
2023-07-09 12.78 - 12.44 - - - - 13.14 -
2023-07-16 12.21 - 11.87 - - - - 12.55 -
2023-07-23 11.10 - 10.78 - - - - 11.43 -
2023-07-30 9.83 - 9.53 - - - - 10.14 -
2023-08-06 9.41 - 9.12 - - - - 9.71 -
2023-08-13 9.73 - 9.43 - - - - 10.04 -
2023-08-20 10.52 - 10.21 - - - - 10.84 -
2023-08-27 9.26 - 8.97 - - - - 9.55 -
2023-09-03 9.70 - 9.40 - - - - 10.00 -
2023-09-10 9.97 - 9.66 - - - - 10.27 -
2023-09-17 10.19 - 9.89 - - - - 10.51 -
2023-09-24 10.52 - 10.21 - - - - 10.84 -
2023-10-01 10.39 - 10.08 - - - - 10.70 -
2023-10-08 11.21 - 10.89 - - - - 11.54 -
2023-10-15 10.73 - 10.41 - - - - 11.05 -
2023-10-22 12.37 - 12.03 - - - - 12.71 -
2023-10-29 11.82 - 11.49 - - - - 12.16 -
2023-11-05 14.56 - 14.19 - - - - 14.93 -
2023-11-12 17.18 - 16.78 - - - - 17.59 -
2023-11-19 19.12 - 18.70 - - - - 19.56 -
2023-11-26 19.17 - 18.74 - - - - 19.60 -
2023-12-03 19.49 - 19.06 - - - - 19.93 -
2023-12-10 23.53 - 23.05 - - - - 24.01 -
2023-12-17 21.43 - 20.97 - - - - 21.89 -
2023-12-24 15.59 - 15.25 - - - - 15.94 -
2023-12-31 10.46 - 0.96 - - - - 43.92 -
2024-01-07 13.87 - 1.27 - - - - 58.21 -
2024-01-14 17.00 - 1.56 - - - - 71.34 -
2024-01-21 22.29 - 2.04 - - - - 93.54 -
2024-01-28 22.44 - 2.05 - - - - 94.18 -
2024-02-04 30.84 - 2.83 - - - - 129.47 -
2024-02-11 34.23 - 3.14 - - - - 143.68 -
2024-02-18 38.70 - 3.54 - - - - 162.44 -
2024-02-25 45.68 - 4.18 - - - - 191.74 -
2024-03-03 42.26 - 3.87 - - - - 177.37 -
2024-03-10 62.28 - 5.70 - - - - 261.41 -
2024-03-17 57.45 - 5.26 - - - - 241.14 -
2024-03-24 60.20 - 5.51 - - - - 252.68 -
2024-03-31 62.93 - 5.76 - - - - 264.12 -
2024-04-07 67.49 - 6.18 - - - - 283.28 -
2024-04-14 50.23 - 4.60 - - - - 210.83 -
2024-04-21 52.20 - 4.78 - - - - 219.11 -
2024-04-28 51.30 - 4.70 - - - - 215.34 -
2024-05-05 48.55 - 4.45 - - - - 203.80 -
2024-05-12 29.63 - 2.71 - - - - 124.38 -
2024-05-19 25.48 - 2.33 - - - - 106.95 -
2024-05-26 17.90 - 1.64 - - - - 75.12 -
2024-06-02 14.34 - 1.31 - - - - 60.18 -
2024-06-09 10.72 - 0.98 - - - - 44.98 -
2024-06-16 10.93 - 1.00 - - - - 45.89 -
2024-06-23 8.73 - 0.80 - - - - 36.66 -
2024-06-30 6.97 - 0.64 - - - - 29.27 -
2024-07-07 5.57 - 0.51 - - - - 23.37 -
2024-07-14 5.32 - 0.49 - - - - 22.32 -
2024-07-21 4.84 - 0.44 - - - - 20.30 -
2024-07-28 4.28 - 0.39 - - - - 17.98 -
2024-08-04 4.10 - 0.38 - - - - 17.21 -
2024-08-11 4.24 - 0.39 - - - - 17.79 -
2024-08-18 4.58 - 0.42 - - - - 19.24 -
2024-08-25 4.03 - 0.37 - - - - 16.93 -
2024-09-01 4.22 - 0.39 - - - - 17.73 -
2024-09-08 4.34 - 0.40 - - - - 18.22 -
2024-09-15 4.44 - 0.41 - - - - 18.64 -
2024-09-22 4.58 - 0.42 - - - - 19.23 -
2024-09-29 4.52 - 0.41 - - - - 18.99 -