Prediction 196

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 1.56 - 1.48 - - - - 1.65 -
2022-07-03 1.69 - 1.60 - - - - 1.78 -
2022-07-10 1.52 - 1.43 - - - - 1.60 -
2022-07-17 1.54 - 1.46 - - - - 1.63 -
2022-07-24 1.27 - 1.20 - - - - 1.35 -
2022-07-31 1.15 - 1.08 - - - - 1.23 -
2022-08-07 1.36 - 1.28 - - - - 1.44 -
2022-08-14 1.15 - 1.08 - - - - 1.22 -
2022-08-21 0.93 - 0.87 - - - - 1.00 -
2022-08-28 1.04 - 0.98 - - - - 1.11 -
2022-09-04 0.93 - 0.86 - - - - 0.99 -
2022-09-11 1.00 - 0.93 - - - - 1.07 -
2022-09-18 1.04 - 0.97 - - - - 1.11 -
2022-09-25 0.97 - 0.91 - - - - 1.04 -
2022-10-02 0.99 - 0.93 - - - - 1.06 -
2022-10-09 1.01 - 0.94 - - - - 1.08 -
2022-10-16 1.10 - 1.03 - - - - 1.17 -
2022-10-23 0.94 - 0.88 - - - - 1.00 -
2022-10-30 1.05 - 0.98 - - - - 1.12 -
2022-11-06 1.31 - 1.23 - - - - 1.38 -
2022-11-13 1.57 - 1.48 - - - - 1.66 -
2022-11-20 1.88 - 1.78 - - - - 1.98 -
2022-11-27 2.09 - 1.99 - - - - 2.20 -
2022-12-04 1.91 - 1.81 - - - - 2.01 -
2022-12-11 2.13 - 2.03 - - - - 2.24 -
2022-12-18 2.10 - 2.00 - - - - 2.21 -
2022-12-25 2.09 - 1.99 - - - - 2.19 -
2023-01-01 6.30 - 0.62 - - - - 25.88 -
2023-01-08 6.53 - 0.64 - - - - 26.85 -
2023-01-15 6.91 - 0.67 - - - - 28.38 -
2023-01-22 11.02 - 1.08 - - - - 45.30 -
2023-01-29 11.72 - 1.14 - - - - 48.15 -
2023-02-05 12.72 - 1.24 - - - - 52.28 -
2023-02-12 14.83 - 1.45 - - - - 60.93 -
2023-02-19 7.21 - 0.70 - - - - 29.63 -
2023-02-26 15.30 - 1.50 - - - - 62.88 -
2023-03-05 13.80 - 1.35 - - - - 56.71 -
2023-03-12 12.76 - 1.25 - - - - 52.43 -
2023-03-19 10.40 - 1.02 - - - - 42.75 -
2023-03-26 5.60 - 0.55 - - - - 23.03 -
2023-04-02 8.95 - 0.87 - - - - 36.78 -
2023-04-09 6.94 - 0.68 - - - - 28.52 -
2023-04-16 4.88 - 0.48 - - - - 20.04 -
2023-04-23 5.22 - 0.51 - - - - 21.44 -
2023-04-30 4.75 - 0.46 - - - - 19.52 -
2023-05-07 4.64 - 0.45 - - - - 19.06 -
2023-05-14 4.01 - 0.39 - - - - 16.47 -
2023-05-21 3.40 - 0.33 - - - - 13.98 -
2023-05-28 3.71 - 0.36 - - - - 15.23 -
2023-06-04 3.56 - 0.35 - - - - 14.62 -
2023-06-11 3.36 - 0.33 - - - - 13.81 -
2023-06-18 3.11 - 0.30 - - - - 12.80 -
2023-06-25 2.46 - 0.24 - - - - 10.13 -
2023-07-02 2.66 - 0.26 - - - - 10.93 -
2023-07-09 2.39 - 0.23 - - - - 9.83 -
2023-07-16 2.44 - 0.24 - - - - 10.01 -
2023-07-23 2.01 - 0.20 - - - - 8.25 -
2023-07-30 1.82 - 0.18 - - - - 7.47 -
2023-08-06 2.15 - 0.21 - - - - 8.83 -
2023-08-13 1.81 - 0.18 - - - - 7.44 -
2023-08-20 1.47 - 0.14 - - - - 6.05 -
2023-08-27 1.65 - 0.16 - - - - 6.77 -
2023-09-03 1.46 - 0.14 - - - - 6.00 -
2023-09-10 1.57 - 0.15 - - - - 6.47 -
2023-09-17 1.64 - 0.16 - - - - 6.75 -
2023-09-24 1.54 - 0.15 - - - - 6.32 -
2023-10-01 1.57 - 0.15 - - - - 6.44 -
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