Prediction 197

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 27.62 - 27.11 - - - - 28.12 -
2022-07-03 22.77 - 22.33 - - - - 23.23 -
2022-07-10 23.03 - 22.58 - - - - 23.49 -
2022-07-17 15.35 - 14.99 - - - - 15.71 -
2022-07-24 15.85 - 15.49 - - - - 16.22 -
2022-07-31 13.32 - 12.99 - - - - 13.65 -
2022-08-07 12.98 - 12.66 - - - - 13.31 -
2022-08-14 12.68 - 12.36 - - - - 13.00 -
2022-08-21 10.58 - 10.30 - - - - 10.88 -
2022-08-28 9.20 - 8.94 - - - - 9.48 -
2022-09-04 9.05 - 8.78 - - - - 9.32 -
2022-09-11 7.51 - 7.27 - - - - 7.76 -
2022-09-18 7.79 - 7.55 - - - - 8.04 -
2022-09-25 7.03 - 6.80 - - - - 7.26 -
2022-10-02 5.93 - 5.72 - - - - 6.15 -
2022-10-09 6.48 - 6.26 - - - - 6.71 -
2022-10-16 5.39 - 5.19 - - - - 5.60 -
2022-10-23 4.45 - 4.27 - - - - 4.63 -
2022-10-30 5.42 - 5.22 - - - - 5.63 -
2022-11-06 5.47 - 5.27 - - - - 5.67 -
2022-11-13 5.99 - 5.78 - - - - 6.21 -
2022-11-20 6.72 - 6.50 - - - - 6.95 -
2022-11-27 6.22 - 6.00 - - - - 6.44 -
2022-12-04 6.97 - 6.74 - - - - 7.20 -
2022-12-11 5.91 - 5.70 - - - - 6.12 -
2022-12-18 5.30 - 5.10 - - - - 5.50 -
2022-12-25 4.54 - 4.37 - - - - 4.72 -
2023-01-01 9.99 - 2.01 - - - - 30.81 -
2023-01-08 11.17 - 2.24 - - - - 34.42 -
2023-01-15 13.10 - 2.63 - - - - 40.37 -
2023-01-22 15.97 - 3.21 - - - - 49.22 -
2023-01-29 18.85 - 3.79 - - - - 58.09 -
2023-02-05 21.31 - 4.28 - - - - 65.68 -
2023-02-12 26.07 - 5.24 - - - - 80.35 -
2023-02-19 22.03 - 4.43 - - - - 67.92 -
2023-02-26 33.39 - 6.71 - - - - 102.93 -
2023-03-05 34.29 - 6.89 - - - - 105.68 -
2023-03-12 31.33 - 6.30 - - - - 96.57 -
2023-03-19 35.77 - 7.19 - - - - 110.24 -
2023-03-26 41.82 - 8.41 - - - - 128.89 -
2023-04-02 55.57 - 11.17 - - - - 171.27 -
2023-04-09 62.07 - 12.48 - - - - 191.31 -
2023-04-16 55.06 - 11.07 - - - - 169.69 -
2023-04-23 60.83 - 12.23 - - - - 187.47 -
2023-04-30 70.76 - 14.22 - - - - 218.10 -
2023-05-07 66.66 - 13.40 - - - - 205.45 -
2023-05-14 61.66 - 12.39 - - - - 190.05 -
2023-05-21 65.84 - 13.23 - - - - 202.94 -
2023-05-28 50.51 - 10.15 - - - - 155.67 -
2023-06-04 48.01 - 9.65 - - - - 147.98 -
2023-06-11 47.40 - 9.53 - - - - 146.09 -
2023-06-18 36.14 - 7.26 - - - - 111.38 -
2023-06-25 35.09 - 7.05 - - - - 108.14 -
2023-07-02 28.93 - 5.81 - - - - 89.17 -
2023-07-09 29.26 - 5.88 - - - - 90.18 -
2023-07-16 19.50 - 3.92 - - - - 60.10 -
2023-07-23 20.13 - 4.05 - - - - 62.06 -
2023-07-30 16.92 - 3.40 - - - - 52.16 -
2023-08-06 16.50 - 3.31 - - - - 50.85 -
2023-08-13 16.11 - 3.24 - - - - 49.65 -
2023-08-20 13.45 - 2.70 - - - - 41.45 -
2023-08-27 11.69 - 2.35 - - - - 36.04 -
2023-09-03 11.50 - 2.31 - - - - 35.44 -
2023-09-10 9.54 - 1.92 - - - - 29.42 -
2023-09-17 9.90 - 1.99 - - - - 30.53 -
2023-09-24 8.93 - 1.79 - - - - 27.52 -
2023-10-01 7.54 - 1.51 - - - - 23.23 -