Prediction 198

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 49.58 - 48.63 - - - - 50.54 -
2022-07-03 26.61 - 25.93 - - - - 27.30 -
2022-07-10 34.66 - 33.88 - - - - 35.45 -
2022-07-17 30.22 - 29.49 - - - - 30.96 -
2022-07-24 24.69 - 24.04 - - - - 25.35 -
2022-07-31 22.41 - 21.79 - - - - 23.04 -
2022-08-07 22.41 - 21.79 - - - - 23.04 -
2022-08-14 21.41 - 20.81 - - - - 22.03 -
2022-08-21 16.68 - 16.15 - - - - 17.22 -
2022-08-28 16.52 - 16.00 - - - - 17.06 -
2022-09-04 14.59 - 14.10 - - - - 15.10 -
2022-09-11 20.33 - 19.75 - - - - 20.94 -
2022-09-18 20.92 - 20.32 - - - - 21.53 -
2022-09-25 21.74 - 21.13 - - - - 22.37 -
2022-10-02 18.72 - 18.16 - - - - 19.30 -
2022-10-09 22.91 - 22.28 - - - - 23.55 -
2022-10-16 26.12 - 25.45 - - - - 26.81 -
2022-10-23 27.10 - 26.42 - - - - 27.80 -
2022-10-30 24.30 - 23.66 - - - - 24.96 -
2022-11-06 28.51 - 27.81 - - - - 29.23 -
2022-11-13 30.71 - 29.98 - - - - 31.46 -
2022-11-20 33.78 - 33.01 - - - - 34.56 -
2022-11-27 34.32 - 33.54 - - - - 35.11 -
2022-12-04 50.35 - 49.39 - - - - 51.32 -
2022-12-11 41.28 - 40.42 - - - - 42.15 -
2022-12-18 35.07 - 34.29 - - - - 35.87 -
2022-12-25 41.26 - 40.46 - - - - 42.08 -
2023-01-01 115.10 - 22.01 - - - - 363.13 -
2023-01-08 129.11 - 24.69 - - - - 407.32 -
2023-01-15 142.71 - 27.29 - - - - 450.21 -
2023-01-22 157.31 - 30.08 - - - - 496.27 -
2023-01-29 158.61 - 30.33 - - - - 500.39 -
2023-02-05 178.04 - 34.05 - - - - 561.68 -
2023-02-12 200.04 - 38.25 - - - - 631.09 -
2023-02-19 213.98 - 40.92 - - - - 675.05 -
2023-02-26 216.69 - 41.44 - - - - 683.61 -
2023-03-05 225.82 - 43.18 - - - - 712.41 -
2023-03-12 240.72 - 46.04 - - - - 759.43 -
2023-03-19 223.23 - 42.69 - - - - 704.24 -
2023-03-26 214.27 - 40.98 - - - - 675.98 -
2023-04-02 232.16 - 44.40 - - - - 732.41 -
2023-04-09 181.08 - 34.63 - - - - 571.26 -
2023-04-16 217.20 - 41.54 - - - - 685.21 -
2023-04-23 209.36 - 40.04 - - - - 660.48 -
2023-04-30 202.75 - 38.77 - - - - 639.64 -
2023-05-07 193.81 - 37.06 - - - - 611.44 -
2023-05-14 181.88 - 34.78 - - - - 573.79 -
2023-05-21 137.18 - 26.23 - - - - 432.77 -
2023-05-28 123.02 - 23.52 - - - - 388.09 -
2023-06-04 116.27 - 22.23 - - - - 366.81 -
2023-06-11 87.99 - 16.83 - - - - 277.58 -
2023-06-18 74.61 - 14.27 - - - - 235.40 -
2023-06-25 63.82 - 12.20 - - - - 201.36 -
2023-07-02 34.26 - 6.55 - - - - 108.10 -
2023-07-09 44.62 - 8.53 - - - - 140.77 -
2023-07-16 38.90 - 7.44 - - - - 122.75 -
2023-07-23 31.78 - 6.08 - - - - 100.28 -
2023-07-30 28.85 - 5.51 - - - - 91.02 -
2023-08-06 28.85 - 5.51 - - - - 91.01 -
2023-08-13 27.56 - 5.27 - - - - 86.97 -
2023-08-20 21.47 - 4.10 - - - - 67.74 -
2023-08-27 21.27 - 4.07 - - - - 67.12 -
2023-09-03 18.78 - 3.59 - - - - 59.27 -
2023-09-10 26.18 - 5.00 - - - - 82.60 -
2023-09-17 26.93 - 5.15 - - - - 84.97 -
2023-09-24 27.99 - 5.35 - - - - 88.32 -
2023-10-01 24.10 - 4.61 - - - - 76.04 -