Prediction 199

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
Download CSV Dashboard
Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


Mostrar Tabela
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 5.62 - 5.52 - - - - 5.72 -
2022-07-03 4.27 - 4.18 - - - - 4.36 -
2022-07-10 3.15 - 3.08 - - - - 3.23 -
2022-07-17 2.11 - 2.04 - - - - 2.17 -
2022-07-24 2.13 - 2.06 - - - - 2.19 -
2022-07-31 1.68 - 1.62 - - - - 1.73 -
2022-08-07 1.79 - 1.74 - - - - 1.85 -
2022-08-14 1.69 - 1.63 - - - - 1.74 -
2022-08-21 1.89 - 1.83 - - - - 1.95 -
2022-08-28 1.57 - 1.52 - - - - 1.63 -
2022-09-04 1.74 - 1.69 - - - - 1.80 -
2022-09-11 1.87 - 1.81 - - - - 1.92 -
2022-09-18 2.01 - 1.95 - - - - 2.07 -
2022-09-25 1.91 - 1.85 - - - - 1.97 -
2022-10-02 1.95 - 1.89 - - - - 2.01 -
2022-10-09 1.80 - 1.74 - - - - 1.85 -
2022-10-16 2.15 - 2.08 - - - - 2.21 -
2022-10-23 2.04 - 1.98 - - - - 2.10 -
2022-10-30 2.22 - 2.16 - - - - 2.28 -
2022-11-06 2.44 - 2.37 - - - - 2.50 -
2022-11-13 2.62 - 2.55 - - - - 2.69 -
2022-11-20 3.37 - 3.29 - - - - 3.45 -
2022-11-27 3.47 - 3.39 - - - - 3.55 -
2022-12-04 4.34 - 4.25 - - - - 4.44 -
2022-12-11 4.72 - 4.62 - - - - 4.81 -
2022-12-18 5.05 - 4.95 - - - - 5.15 -
2022-12-25 5.44 - 5.34 - - - - 5.54 -
2023-01-01 35.11 - 0.57 - - - - 203.14 -
2023-01-08 46.10 - 0.75 - - - - 266.69 -
2023-01-15 52.56 - 0.86 - - - - 304.09 -
2023-01-22 60.44 - 0.99 - - - - 349.65 -
2023-01-29 58.94 - 0.96 - - - - 341.02 -
2023-02-05 81.81 - 1.34 - - - - 473.29 -
2023-02-12 102.29 - 1.67 - - - - 591.80 -
2023-02-19 99.17 - 1.62 - - - - 573.77 -
2023-02-26 112.30 - 1.84 - - - - 649.73 -
2023-03-05 142.93 - 2.34 - - - - 826.91 -
2023-03-12 140.81 - 2.30 - - - - 814.66 -
2023-03-19 151.70 - 2.48 - - - - 877.68 -
2023-03-26 140.81 - 2.30 - - - - 814.67 -
2023-04-02 181.83 - 2.97 - - - - 1052.00 -
2023-04-09 174.98 - 2.86 - - - - 1012.33 -
2023-04-16 159.14 - 2.60 - - - - 920.71 -
2023-04-23 155.36 - 2.54 - - - - 898.82 -
2023-04-30 141.47 - 2.31 - - - - 818.48 -
2023-05-07 128.63 - 2.10 - - - - 744.20 -
2023-05-14 112.66 - 1.84 - - - - 651.80 -
2023-05-21 78.96 - 1.29 - - - - 456.82 -
2023-05-28 48.41 - 0.79 - - - - 280.07 -
2023-06-04 49.63 - 0.81 - - - - 287.16 -
2023-06-11 35.23 - 0.58 - - - - 203.81 -
2023-06-18 22.02 - 0.36 - - - - 127.37 -
2023-06-25 18.27 - 0.30 - - - - 105.68 -
2023-07-02 13.87 - 0.23 - - - - 80.24 -
2023-07-09 10.24 - 0.17 - - - - 59.27 -
2023-07-16 6.85 - 0.11 - - - - 39.61 -
2023-07-23 6.91 - 0.11 - - - - 39.97 -
2023-07-30 5.45 - 0.09 - - - - 31.55 -
2023-08-06 5.83 - 0.10 - - - - 33.72 -
2023-08-13 5.49 - 0.09 - - - - 31.76 -
2023-08-20 6.13 - 0.10 - - - - 35.47 -
2023-08-27 5.11 - 0.08 - - - - 29.56 -
2023-09-03 5.66 - 0.09 - - - - 32.73 -
2023-09-10 6.06 - 0.10 - - - - 35.08 -
2023-09-17 6.54 - 0.11 - - - - 37.81 -
2023-09-24 6.21 - 0.10 - - - - 35.92 -
2023-10-01 6.34 - 0.10 - - - - 36.69 -