Prediction 200

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 14.62 - 14.22 - - - - 15.02 -
2022-07-03 11.99 - 11.64 - - - - 12.35 -
2022-07-10 10.19 - 9.87 - - - - 10.53 -
2022-07-17 8.55 - 8.26 - - - - 8.86 -
2022-07-24 8.32 - 8.03 - - - - 8.62 -
2022-07-31 7.92 - 7.63 - - - - 8.21 -
2022-08-07 8.03 - 7.75 - - - - 8.33 -
2022-08-14 7.65 - 7.37 - - - - 7.93 -
2022-08-21 8.22 - 7.93 - - - - 8.52 -
2022-08-28 8.23 - 7.94 - - - - 8.53 -
2022-09-04 8.80 - 8.50 - - - - 9.11 -
2022-09-11 10.20 - 9.87 - - - - 10.53 -
2022-09-18 9.25 - 8.95 - - - - 9.57 -
2022-09-25 9.38 - 9.07 - - - - 9.70 -
2022-10-02 9.26 - 8.95 - - - - 9.58 -
2022-10-09 10.73 - 10.40 - - - - 11.07 -
2022-10-16 9.95 - 9.63 - - - - 10.28 -
2022-10-23 11.73 - 11.38 - - - - 12.09 -
2022-10-30 11.86 - 11.51 - - - - 12.22 -
2022-11-06 14.57 - 14.18 - - - - 14.97 -
2022-11-13 15.54 - 15.14 - - - - 15.96 -
2022-11-20 18.00 - 17.56 - - - - 18.44 -
2022-11-27 18.56 - 18.12 - - - - 19.02 -
2022-12-04 19.03 - 18.58 - - - - 19.49 -
2022-12-11 22.53 - 22.04 - - - - 23.03 -
2022-12-18 20.92 - 20.45 - - - - 21.41 -
2022-12-25 14.55 - 14.21 - - - - 14.90 -
2023-01-01 50.22 - 2.51 - - - - 247.68 -
2023-01-08 65.02 - 3.25 - - - - 320.70 -
2023-01-15 80.33 - 4.02 - - - - 396.22 -
2023-01-22 104.49 - 5.23 - - - - 515.39 -
2023-01-29 108.83 - 5.45 - - - - 536.77 -
2023-02-05 143.07 - 7.16 - - - - 705.65 -
2023-02-12 164.50 - 8.23 - - - - 811.37 -
2023-02-19 180.47 - 9.03 - - - - 890.15 -
2023-02-26 222.02 - 11.11 - - - - 1095.07 -
2023-03-05 181.89 - 9.10 - - - - 897.14 -
2023-03-12 265.26 - 13.28 - - - - 1308.34 -
2023-03-19 243.05 - 12.16 - - - - 1198.78 -
2023-03-26 251.94 - 12.61 - - - - 1242.66 -
2023-04-02 258.07 - 12.92 - - - - 1272.90 -
2023-04-09 237.72 - 11.90 - - - - 1172.49 -
2023-04-16 210.15 - 10.52 - - - - 1036.52 -
2023-04-23 196.77 - 9.85 - - - - 970.51 -
2023-04-30 179.45 - 8.98 - - - - 885.09 -
2023-05-07 173.64 - 8.69 - - - - 856.45 -
2023-05-14 120.03 - 6.01 - - - - 592.04 -
2023-05-21 93.28 - 4.67 - - - - 460.10 -
2023-05-28 63.22 - 3.16 - - - - 311.85 -
2023-06-04 51.96 - 2.60 - - - - 256.29 -
2023-06-11 44.38 - 2.22 - - - - 218.91 -
2023-06-18 45.28 - 2.27 - - - - 223.32 -
2023-06-25 29.41 - 1.47 - - - - 145.08 -
2023-07-02 24.13 - 1.21 - - - - 119.03 -
2023-07-09 20.51 - 1.03 - - - - 101.19 -
2023-07-16 17.21 - 0.86 - - - - 84.90 -
2023-07-23 16.75 - 0.84 - - - - 82.63 -
2023-07-30 15.93 - 0.80 - - - - 78.60 -
2023-08-06 16.17 - 0.81 - - - - 79.74 -
2023-08-13 15.39 - 0.77 - - - - 75.92 -
2023-08-20 16.54 - 0.83 - - - - 81.60 -
2023-08-27 16.56 - 0.83 - - - - 81.69 -
2023-09-03 17.71 - 0.89 - - - - 87.36 -
2023-09-10 20.52 - 1.03 - - - - 101.24 -
2023-09-17 18.62 - 0.93 - - - - 91.85 -
2023-09-24 18.88 - 0.94 - - - - 93.13 -
2023-10-01 18.63 - 0.93 - - - - 91.92 -