Prediction 201

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 4.31 - 4.12 - - - - 4.51 -
2023-06-18 4.00 - 3.81 - - - - 4.19 -
2023-06-25 3.23 - 3.07 - - - - 3.40 -
2023-07-02 3.57 - 3.40 - - - - 3.75 -
2023-07-09 3.25 - 3.08 - - - - 3.41 -
2023-07-16 3.14 - 2.99 - - - - 3.31 -
2023-07-23 2.67 - 2.53 - - - - 2.82 -
2023-07-30 2.45 - 2.31 - - - - 2.59 -
2023-08-06 2.81 - 2.67 - - - - 2.97 -
2023-08-13 2.41 - 2.28 - - - - 2.55 -
2023-08-20 1.92 - 1.80 - - - - 2.05 -
2023-08-27 2.17 - 2.04 - - - - 2.30 -
2023-09-03 1.93 - 1.81 - - - - 2.06 -
2023-09-10 2.05 - 1.93 - - - - 2.18 -
2023-09-17 2.40 - 2.26 - - - - 2.54 -
2023-09-24 2.44 - 2.30 - - - - 2.58 -
2023-10-01 2.53 - 2.39 - - - - 2.67 -
2023-10-08 2.55 - 2.41 - - - - 2.70 -
2023-10-15 2.59 - 2.45 - - - - 2.74 -
2023-10-22 2.29 - 2.16 - - - - 2.43 -
2023-10-29 2.60 - 2.45 - - - - 2.74 -
2023-11-05 3.00 - 2.85 - - - - 3.16 -
2023-11-12 3.60 - 3.42 - - - - 3.78 -
2023-11-19 4.19 - 4.00 - - - - 4.39 -
2023-11-26 4.62 - 4.42 - - - - 4.83 -
2023-12-03 4.05 - 3.87 - - - - 4.24 -
2023-12-10 4.73 - 4.53 - - - - 4.94 -
2023-12-17 4.64 - 4.44 - - - - 4.85 -
2023-12-24 4.64 - 4.45 - - - - 4.84 -
2023-12-31 12.96 - 1.47 - - - - 50.57 -
2024-01-07 13.24 - 1.50 - - - - 51.67 -
2024-01-14 13.89 - 1.58 - - - - 54.24 -
2024-01-21 21.41 - 2.43 - - - - 83.56 -
2024-01-28 22.55 - 2.56 - - - - 88.02 -
2024-02-04 24.35 - 2.76 - - - - 95.07 -
2024-02-11 27.75 - 3.15 - - - - 108.31 -
2024-02-18 14.01 - 1.59 - - - - 54.69 -
2024-02-25 28.62 - 3.25 - - - - 111.71 -
2024-03-03 25.90 - 2.94 - - - - 101.10 -
2024-03-10 23.64 - 2.68 - - - - 92.27 -
2024-03-17 19.63 - 2.23 - - - - 76.62 -
2024-03-24 10.86 - 1.23 - - - - 42.40 -
2024-03-31 16.93 - 1.92 - - - - 66.08 -
2024-04-07 13.47 - 1.53 - - - - 52.57 -
2024-04-14 9.71 - 1.10 - - - - 37.91 -
2024-04-21 10.38 - 1.18 - - - - 40.54 -
2024-04-28 9.56 - 1.09 - - - - 37.33 -
2024-05-05 9.00 - 1.02 - - - - 35.15 -
2024-05-12 8.24 - 0.94 - - - - 32.19 -
2024-05-19 6.50 - 0.74 - - - - 25.37 -
2024-05-26 7.34 - 0.83 - - - - 28.65 -
2024-06-02 6.97 - 0.79 - - - - 27.21 -
2024-06-09 6.48 - 0.74 - - - - 25.30 -
2024-06-16 6.00 - 0.68 - - - - 23.44 -
2024-06-23 4.85 - 0.55 - - - - 18.94 -
2024-06-30 5.36 - 0.61 - - - - 20.93 -
2024-07-07 4.88 - 0.55 - - - - 19.04 -
2024-07-14 4.72 - 0.54 - - - - 18.44 -
2024-07-21 4.01 - 0.46 - - - - 15.67 -
2024-07-28 3.68 - 0.42 - - - - 14.38 -
2024-08-04 4.23 - 0.48 - - - - 16.51 -
2024-08-11 3.62 - 0.41 - - - - 14.15 -
2024-08-18 2.89 - 0.33 - - - - 11.29 -
2024-08-25 3.26 - 0.37 - - - - 12.74 -
2024-09-01 2.90 - 0.33 - - - - 11.33 -
2024-09-08 3.09 - 0.35 - - - - 12.05 -
2024-09-15 3.61 - 0.41 - - - - 14.08 -
2024-09-22 3.66 - 0.42 - - - - 14.30 -
2024-09-29 3.79 - 0.43 - - - - 14.81 -