Prediction 202

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 13.91 - 13.66 - - - - 14.18 -
2023-06-18 10.61 - 10.40 - - - - 10.82 -
2023-06-25 11.18 - 10.96 - - - - 11.41 -
2023-07-02 8.08 - 7.90 - - - - 8.25 -
2023-07-09 8.87 - 8.69 - - - - 9.06 -
2023-07-16 6.29 - 6.15 - - - - 6.44 -
2023-07-23 6.29 - 6.15 - - - - 6.44 -
2023-07-30 5.38 - 5.25 - - - - 5.52 -
2023-08-06 5.10 - 4.97 - - - - 5.23 -
2023-08-13 5.09 - 4.96 - - - - 5.22 -
2023-08-20 3.76 - 3.66 - - - - 3.87 -
2023-08-27 3.16 - 3.06 - - - - 3.26 -
2023-09-03 3.14 - 3.04 - - - - 3.23 -
2023-09-10 2.66 - 2.57 - - - - 2.75 -
2023-09-17 2.88 - 2.79 - - - - 2.98 -
2023-09-24 2.64 - 2.55 - - - - 2.72 -
2023-10-01 2.24 - 2.16 - - - - 2.32 -
2023-10-08 2.33 - 2.25 - - - - 2.41 -
2023-10-15 1.94 - 1.87 - - - - 2.02 -
2023-10-22 1.63 - 1.56 - - - - 1.69 -
2023-10-29 1.94 - 1.87 - - - - 2.01 -
2023-11-05 1.88 - 1.81 - - - - 1.95 -
2023-11-12 2.21 - 2.14 - - - - 2.29 -
2023-11-19 2.22 - 2.15 - - - - 2.30 -
2023-11-26 2.07 - 2.00 - - - - 2.15 -
2023-12-03 2.39 - 2.31 - - - - 2.47 -
2023-12-10 2.02 - 1.94 - - - - 2.09 -
2023-12-17 1.76 - 1.69 - - - - 1.83 -
2023-12-24 1.60 - 1.54 - - - - 1.66 -
2023-12-31 3.97 - 0.74 - - - - 12.64 -
2024-01-07 4.32 - 0.81 - - - - 13.78 -
2024-01-14 4.89 - 0.91 - - - - 15.57 -
2024-01-21 6.15 - 1.15 - - - - 19.61 -
2024-01-28 7.26 - 1.36 - - - - 23.12 -
2024-02-04 8.20 - 1.53 - - - - 26.14 -
2024-02-11 9.95 - 1.86 - - - - 31.71 -
2024-02-18 8.26 - 1.55 - - - - 26.32 -
2024-02-25 12.71 - 2.38 - - - - 40.49 -
2024-03-03 13.77 - 2.58 - - - - 43.89 -
2024-03-10 12.66 - 2.37 - - - - 40.33 -
2024-03-17 14.37 - 2.69 - - - - 45.79 -
2024-03-24 16.23 - 3.04 - - - - 51.71 -
2024-03-31 20.94 - 3.92 - - - - 66.72 -
2024-04-07 23.66 - 4.43 - - - - 75.38 -
2024-04-14 20.84 - 3.90 - - - - 66.41 -
2024-04-21 22.93 - 4.29 - - - - 73.04 -
2024-04-28 26.45 - 4.95 - - - - 84.26 -
2024-05-05 24.72 - 4.62 - - - - 78.75 -
2024-05-12 23.00 - 4.30 - - - - 73.28 -
2024-05-19 24.61 - 4.60 - - - - 78.40 -
2024-05-26 19.10 - 3.57 - - - - 60.86 -
2024-06-02 17.82 - 3.33 - - - - 56.78 -
2024-06-09 18.02 - 3.37 - - - - 57.42 -
2024-06-16 13.74 - 2.57 - - - - 43.78 -
2024-06-23 14.49 - 2.71 - - - - 46.15 -
2024-06-30 10.46 - 1.96 - - - - 33.33 -
2024-07-07 11.49 - 2.15 - - - - 36.62 -
2024-07-14 8.15 - 1.52 - - - - 25.97 -
2024-07-21 8.15 - 1.52 - - - - 25.97 -
2024-07-28 6.97 - 1.30 - - - - 22.21 -
2024-08-04 6.60 - 1.23 - - - - 21.03 -
2024-08-11 6.59 - 1.23 - - - - 21.00 -
2024-08-18 4.87 - 0.91 - - - - 15.52 -
2024-08-25 4.09 - 0.77 - - - - 13.04 -
2024-09-01 4.06 - 0.76 - - - - 12.95 -
2024-09-08 3.44 - 0.64 - - - - 10.97 -
2024-09-15 3.73 - 0.70 - - - - 11.90 -
2024-09-22 3.42 - 0.64 - - - - 10.88 -
2024-09-29 2.90 - 0.54 - - - - 9.24 -