Prediction 203

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 27.56 - 27.11 - - - - 28.02 -
2023-06-18 23.38 - 22.97 - - - - 23.79 -
2023-06-25 20.97 - 20.59 - - - - 21.36 -
2023-07-02 12.56 - 12.28 - - - - 12.85 -
2023-07-09 14.91 - 14.60 - - - - 15.23 -
2023-07-16 13.09 - 12.80 - - - - 13.38 -
2023-07-23 10.50 - 10.24 - - - - 10.76 -
2023-07-30 10.58 - 10.32 - - - - 10.84 -
2023-08-06 7.81 - 7.59 - - - - 8.03 -
2023-08-13 8.46 - 8.23 - - - - 8.69 -
2023-08-20 6.64 - 6.44 - - - - 6.84 -
2023-08-27 8.19 - 7.97 - - - - 8.42 -
2023-09-03 6.63 - 6.43 - - - - 6.83 -
2023-09-10 9.00 - 8.76 - - - - 9.24 -
2023-09-17 8.41 - 8.18 - - - - 8.64 -
2023-09-24 9.78 - 9.53 - - - - 10.03 -
2023-10-01 8.39 - 8.17 - - - - 8.62 -
2023-10-08 8.78 - 8.55 - - - - 9.02 -
2023-10-15 10.35 - 10.10 - - - - 10.61 -
2023-10-22 10.13 - 9.88 - - - - 10.39 -
2023-10-29 9.94 - 9.69 - - - - 10.19 -
2023-11-05 11.66 - 11.39 - - - - 11.93 -
2023-11-12 11.89 - 11.61 - - - - 12.17 -
2023-11-19 14.11 - 13.81 - - - - 14.42 -
2023-11-26 12.68 - 12.40 - - - - 12.97 -
2023-12-03 18.86 - 18.51 - - - - 19.23 -
2023-12-10 15.99 - 15.66 - - - - 16.32 -
2023-12-17 13.84 - 13.54 - - - - 14.14 -
2023-12-24 16.27 - 15.95 - - - - 16.58 -
2023-12-31 48.19 - 8.72 - - - - 155.85 -
2024-01-07 50.77 - 9.19 - - - - 164.18 -
2024-01-14 58.91 - 10.66 - - - - 190.51 -
2024-01-21 65.04 - 11.77 - - - - 210.34 -
2024-01-28 66.33 - 12.01 - - - - 214.52 -
2024-02-04 69.98 - 12.67 - - - - 226.32 -
2024-02-11 79.94 - 14.47 - - - - 258.54 -
2024-02-18 87.59 - 15.85 - - - - 283.26 -
2024-02-25 88.67 - 16.05 - - - - 286.77 -
2024-03-03 92.40 - 16.73 - - - - 298.83 -
2024-03-10 98.68 - 17.86 - - - - 319.13 -
2024-03-17 93.35 - 16.90 - - - - 301.91 -
2024-03-24 87.76 - 15.89 - - - - 283.83 -
2024-03-31 93.15 - 16.86 - - - - 301.25 -
2024-04-07 75.46 - 13.66 - - - - 244.04 -
2024-04-14 90.55 - 16.39 - - - - 292.86 -
2024-04-21 86.75 - 15.70 - - - - 280.56 -
2024-04-28 84.55 - 15.31 - - - - 273.45 -
2024-05-05 80.10 - 14.50 - - - - 259.04 -
2024-05-12 73.71 - 13.34 - - - - 238.38 -
2024-05-19 56.25 - 10.18 - - - - 181.92 -
2024-05-26 49.65 - 8.99 - - - - 160.57 -
2024-06-02 46.21 - 8.36 - - - - 149.44 -
2024-06-09 36.02 - 6.52 - - - - 116.50 -
2024-06-16 30.55 - 5.53 - - - - 98.80 -
2024-06-23 27.41 - 4.96 - - - - 88.66 -
2024-06-30 16.42 - 2.97 - - - - 53.11 -
2024-07-07 19.49 - 3.53 - - - - 63.03 -
2024-07-14 17.11 - 3.10 - - - - 55.33 -
2024-07-21 13.72 - 2.48 - - - - 44.36 -
2024-07-28 13.82 - 2.50 - - - - 44.70 -
2024-08-04 10.20 - 1.85 - - - - 33.00 -
2024-08-11 11.05 - 2.00 - - - - 35.75 -
2024-08-18 8.67 - 1.57 - - - - 28.06 -
2024-08-25 10.71 - 1.94 - - - - 34.63 -
2024-09-01 8.66 - 1.57 - - - - 28.02 -
2024-09-08 11.76 - 2.13 - - - - 38.04 -
2024-09-15 10.99 - 1.99 - - - - 35.53 -
2024-09-22 12.78 - 2.31 - - - - 41.33 -
2024-09-29 10.97 - 1.99 - - - - 35.48 -
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