Prediction 204

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 47.01 - 46.42 - - - - 47.61 -
2023-06-18 29.39 - 28.93 - - - - 29.86 -
2023-06-25 27.35 - 26.91 - - - - 27.80 -
2023-07-02 20.93 - 20.54 - - - - 21.32 -
2023-07-09 16.09 - 15.75 - - - - 16.43 -
2023-07-16 11.34 - 11.06 - - - - 11.63 -
2023-07-23 11.26 - 10.98 - - - - 11.54 -
2023-07-30 9.26 - 9.01 - - - - 9.52 -
2023-08-06 9.31 - 9.05 - - - - 9.57 -
2023-08-13 8.79 - 8.54 - - - - 9.04 -
2023-08-20 9.47 - 9.22 - - - - 9.74 -
2023-08-27 8.07 - 7.84 - - - - 8.32 -
2023-09-03 9.04 - 8.79 - - - - 9.30 -
2023-09-10 9.66 - 9.41 - - - - 9.93 -
2023-09-17 10.35 - 10.08 - - - - 10.63 -
2023-09-24 9.87 - 9.61 - - - - 10.14 -
2023-10-01 10.13 - 9.87 - - - - 10.40 -
2023-10-08 9.54 - 9.28 - - - - 9.80 -
2023-10-15 11.20 - 10.92 - - - - 11.48 -
2023-10-22 10.48 - 10.21 - - - - 10.76 -
2023-10-29 11.28 - 11.00 - - - - 11.57 -
2023-11-05 12.48 - 12.19 - - - - 12.78 -
2023-11-12 13.63 - 13.32 - - - - 13.95 -
2023-11-19 16.73 - 16.39 - - - - 17.08 -
2023-11-26 17.31 - 16.96 - - - - 17.67 -
2023-12-03 21.24 - 20.85 - - - - 21.64 -
2023-12-10 23.25 - 22.84 - - - - 23.66 -
2023-12-17 24.54 - 24.12 - - - - 24.97 -
2023-12-24 27.31 - 26.88 - - - - 27.74 -
2023-12-31 136.66 - 2.25 - - - - 793.95 -
2024-01-07 177.56 - 2.92 - - - - 1031.54 -
2024-01-14 207.81 - 3.42 - - - - 1207.27 -
2024-01-21 241.95 - 3.98 - - - - 1405.64 -
2024-01-28 254.82 - 4.19 - - - - 1480.39 -
2024-02-04 345.43 - 5.68 - - - - 2006.79 -
2024-02-11 415.88 - 6.84 - - - - 2416.08 -
2024-02-18 423.17 - 6.96 - - - - 2458.43 -
2024-02-25 489.60 - 8.05 - - - - 2844.33 -
2024-03-03 607.58 - 9.99 - - - - 3529.74 -
2024-03-10 615.08 - 10.11 - - - - 3573.31 -
2024-03-17 674.66 - 11.09 - - - - 3919.42 -
2024-03-24 647.27 - 10.64 - - - - 3760.31 -
2024-03-31 763.83 - 12.56 - - - - 4437.47 -
2024-04-07 775.41 - 12.75 - - - - 4504.74 -
2024-04-14 698.71 - 11.49 - - - - 4059.14 -
2024-04-21 664.12 - 10.92 - - - - 3858.20 -
2024-04-28 626.46 - 10.30 - - - - 3639.41 -
2024-05-05 570.87 - 9.38 - - - - 3316.47 -
2024-05-12 488.53 - 8.03 - - - - 2838.14 -
2024-05-19 343.30 - 5.64 - - - - 1994.40 -
2024-05-26 225.04 - 3.70 - - - - 1307.35 -
2024-06-02 209.42 - 3.44 - - - - 1216.61 -
2024-06-09 152.07 - 2.50 - - - - 883.43 -
2024-06-16 95.07 - 1.56 - - - - 552.30 -
2024-06-23 88.47 - 1.45 - - - - 513.99 -
2024-06-30 67.69 - 1.11 - - - - 393.27 -
2024-07-07 52.04 - 0.86 - - - - 302.34 -
2024-07-14 36.69 - 0.60 - - - - 213.14 -
2024-07-21 36.41 - 0.60 - - - - 211.51 -
2024-07-28 29.97 - 0.49 - - - - 174.10 -
2024-08-04 30.11 - 0.49 - - - - 174.91 -
2024-08-11 28.42 - 0.47 - - - - 165.11 -
2024-08-18 30.64 - 0.50 - - - - 178.02 -
2024-08-25 26.12 - 0.43 - - - - 151.73 -
2024-09-01 29.24 - 0.48 - - - - 169.88 -
2024-09-08 31.26 - 0.51 - - - - 181.61 -
2024-09-15 33.48 - 0.55 - - - - 194.53 -
2024-09-22 31.93 - 0.52 - - - - 185.49 -
2024-09-29 32.77 - 0.54 - - - - 190.38 -
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