Prediction 205

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-06-11 24.61 - 24.12 - - - - 25.10 -
2023-06-18 25.10 - 24.61 - - - - 25.60 -
2023-06-25 20.05 - 19.62 - - - - 20.50 -
2023-07-02 16.01 - 15.62 - - - - 16.40 -
2023-07-09 12.78 - 12.44 - - - - 13.14 -
2023-07-16 12.21 - 11.87 - - - - 12.55 -
2023-07-23 11.10 - 10.78 - - - - 11.43 -
2023-07-30 9.83 - 9.53 - - - - 10.14 -
2023-08-06 9.41 - 9.12 - - - - 9.71 -
2023-08-13 9.73 - 9.43 - - - - 10.04 -
2023-08-20 10.52 - 10.21 - - - - 10.84 -
2023-08-27 9.26 - 8.97 - - - - 9.55 -
2023-09-03 9.70 - 9.40 - - - - 10.00 -
2023-09-10 9.97 - 9.66 - - - - 10.27 -
2023-09-17 10.19 - 9.89 - - - - 10.51 -
2023-09-24 10.52 - 10.21 - - - - 10.84 -
2023-10-01 10.39 - 10.08 - - - - 10.70 -
2023-10-08 11.21 - 10.89 - - - - 11.54 -
2023-10-15 10.73 - 10.41 - - - - 11.05 -
2023-10-22 12.37 - 12.03 - - - - 12.71 -
2023-10-29 11.82 - 11.49 - - - - 12.16 -
2023-11-05 14.56 - 14.19 - - - - 14.93 -
2023-11-12 17.18 - 16.78 - - - - 17.59 -
2023-11-19 19.12 - 18.70 - - - - 19.56 -
2023-11-26 19.17 - 18.74 - - - - 19.60 -
2023-12-03 19.49 - 19.06 - - - - 19.93 -
2023-12-10 23.53 - 23.05 - - - - 24.01 -
2023-12-17 21.43 - 20.97 - - - - 21.89 -
2023-12-24 15.59 - 15.25 - - - - 15.94 -
2023-12-31 45.68 - 2.65 - - - - 218.06 -
2024-01-07 60.55 - 3.51 - - - - 289.03 -
2024-01-14 74.20 - 4.30 - - - - 354.18 -
2024-01-21 97.29 - 5.63 - - - - 464.44 -
2024-01-28 97.95 - 5.67 - - - - 467.59 -
2024-02-04 134.65 - 7.80 - - - - 642.79 -
2024-02-11 149.43 - 8.66 - - - - 713.35 -
2024-02-18 168.95 - 9.79 - - - - 806.51 -
2024-02-25 199.43 - 11.55 - - - - 952.00 -
2024-03-03 184.48 - 10.68 - - - - 880.62 -
2024-03-10 271.89 - 15.75 - - - - 1297.91 -
2024-03-17 250.81 - 14.53 - - - - 1197.27 -
2024-03-24 262.80 - 15.22 - - - - 1254.53 -
2024-03-31 274.71 - 15.91 - - - - 1311.36 -
2024-04-07 294.64 - 17.07 - - - - 1406.50 -
2024-04-14 219.28 - 12.70 - - - - 1046.78 -
2024-04-21 227.89 - 13.20 - - - - 1087.86 -
2024-04-28 223.97 - 12.97 - - - - 1069.14 -
2024-05-05 211.97 - 12.28 - - - - 1011.85 -
2024-05-12 129.36 - 7.49 - - - - 617.53 -
2024-05-19 111.24 - 6.44 - - - - 531.03 -
2024-05-26 78.13 - 4.52 - - - - 372.96 -
2024-06-02 62.59 - 3.62 - - - - 298.77 -
2024-06-09 46.79 - 2.71 - - - - 223.34 -
2024-06-16 47.73 - 2.76 - - - - 227.86 -
2024-06-23 38.13 - 2.21 - - - - 182.01 -
2024-06-30 30.44 - 1.76 - - - - 145.32 -
2024-07-07 24.31 - 1.41 - - - - 116.05 -
2024-07-14 23.21 - 1.34 - - - - 110.81 -
2024-07-21 21.11 - 1.22 - - - - 100.78 -
2024-07-28 18.69 - 1.08 - - - - 89.25 -
2024-08-04 17.90 - 1.04 - - - - 85.44 -
2024-08-11 18.50 - 1.07 - - - - 88.34 -
2024-08-18 20.01 - 1.16 - - - - 95.53 -
2024-08-25 17.60 - 1.02 - - - - 84.04 -
2024-09-01 18.44 - 1.07 - - - - 88.04 -
2024-09-08 18.95 - 1.10 - - - - 90.46 -
2024-09-15 19.38 - 1.12 - - - - 92.54 -
2024-09-22 20.00 - 1.16 - - - - 95.50 -
2024-09-29 19.75 - 1.14 - - - - 94.29 -
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