Prediction 2111

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model Chronos-Bolt
Author Davi Sales Barreira
ADM 1 Maranhão

Description:

Validation set 1 for MA using Chronos-Bolt


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-10-09 34.67 1.14 3.62 8.57 22.30 49.56 73.85 83.37 88.13
2022-10-16 34.95 0.00 0.00 5.98 21.92 47.51 73.18 83.85 89.19
2022-10-23 33.35 0.00 0.28 5.84 20.67 47.70 76.46 88.31 94.23
2022-10-30 37.95 0.36 3.11 8.62 23.33 53.69 92.45 108.79 116.96
2022-11-06 41.68 5.74 8.41 13.75 28.55 56.40 99.25 117.45 126.56
2022-11-13 39.97 10.14 11.81 15.16 25.24 64.79 121.31 144.73 156.44
2022-11-20 37.69 7.45 9.27 12.90 23.43 68.18 141.48 172.44 187.92
2022-11-27 45.66 11.06 13.37 17.99 30.14 80.00 166.64 203.80 222.38
2022-12-04 51.21 19.01 21.15 25.41 36.33 97.09 204.42 250.36 273.33
2022-12-11 54.31 24.72 25.62 27.43 34.50 113.25 238.65 291.99 318.65
2022-12-18 56.44 25.05 25.73 27.08 32.94 128.81 275.00 335.44 365.66
2022-12-25 71.64 32.70 33.76 35.89 43.78 159.23 332.93 404.67 440.54
2023-01-01 95.95 36.69 38.87 43.21 57.63 200.61 393.50 472.83 512.49
2023-01-08 117.19 31.77 35.42 42.72 66.98 241.15 456.13 541.80 584.63
2023-01-15 143.60 24.89 30.22 40.86 74.44 287.36 529.11 626.26 674.84
2023-01-22 176.97 23.32 30.23 44.04 87.33 351.50 611.93 714.67 766.04
2023-01-29 259.71 26.22 37.91 61.29 131.56 466.92 752.81 865.63 922.04
2023-02-05 324.02 34.75 48.88 77.12 163.68 556.15 865.42 987.04 1047.85
2023-02-12 369.79 40.80 58.60 94.21 197.84 614.50 941.70 1070.43 1134.79
2023-02-19 405.15 60.00 78.68 116.05 225.85 661.71 1008.51 1143.75 1211.37
2023-02-26 429.09 71.90 91.31 130.12 244.62 699.30 1050.64 1187.54 1255.99
2023-03-05 447.98 80.19 100.56 141.30 260.55 724.17 1079.55 1218.83 1288.48
2023-03-12 450.29 81.70 101.82 142.04 260.12 726.06 1075.74 1211.82 1279.86
2023-03-19 482.20 85.57 107.78 152.19 279.86 752.86 1101.56 1238.00 1306.23
2023-03-26 477.78 85.77 106.52 148.01 271.17 749.01 1094.66 1228.90 1296.02
2023-04-02 454.55 76.58 95.93 134.63 251.43 716.45 1051.72 1182.60 1248.04
2023-04-09 418.84 63.02 81.74 119.20 229.97 669.71 992.37 1119.40 1182.91
2023-04-16 395.39 65.34 82.03 115.42 217.64 633.83 934.48 1051.68 1110.27
2023-04-23 338.05 55.92 69.82 97.61 180.77 557.03 840.64 951.67 1007.18
2023-04-30 329.91 50.27 64.58 93.20 179.08 540.32 804.05 906.77 958.13
2023-05-07 307.95 47.84 60.64 86.25 164.73 501.27 748.44 845.26 893.67
2023-05-14 245.31 36.13 45.89 65.42 125.61 419.58 647.07 736.76 781.60
2023-05-21 202.05 35.68 42.96 57.53 103.56 355.81 555.78 633.83 672.86
2023-05-28 175.90 35.33 41.44 53.66 91.83 312.38 491.95 562.14 597.24
2023-06-04 143.13 32.73 36.89 45.22 71.85 263.77 417.59 477.78 507.87
2023-06-11 118.49 34.53 37.59 43.71 62.86 221.85 357.59 410.35 436.72
2023-06-18 101.21 39.07 40.96 44.76 57.83 189.24 303.13 347.62 369.86
2023-06-25 83.40 28.72 30.71 34.69 46.80 155.22 254.15 293.06 312.51
2023-07-02 76.48 24.38 26.46 30.61 42.46 137.56 222.56 255.84 272.49
2023-07-09 73.55 27.34 28.69 31.41 40.75 121.97 196.17 226.78 242.08
2023-07-16 63.85 17.61 19.46 23.15 33.79 105.35 164.94 189.11 201.20
2023-07-23 53.96 8.78 10.26 13.23 23.20 90.21 139.00 158.72 168.58
2023-07-30 60.52 10.35 12.60 17.08 30.63 90.08 130.67 147.70 156.21
2023-08-06 60.53 14.10 16.19 20.37 32.99 84.30 111.43 122.67 128.30
2023-08-13 46.08 2.71 4.63 8.48 21.09 62.71 78.24 85.66 89.36
2023-08-20 38.42 0.00 0.00 1.42 14.97 47.99 58.62 63.18 65.46
2023-08-27 34.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.67 39.22 41.22 42.09 42.52
2023-09-03 32.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.43 36.44 38.71 39.70 40.19
2023-09-10 25.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.31 28.89 30.10 30.55 30.78
2023-09-17 12.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.51 20.29 29.88 33.56 35.40
2023-09-24 11.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.04 18.63 26.96 30.00 31.52
2023-10-01 10.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.02 18.03 25.80 28.66 30.09
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