Prediction 2152

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model Chronos-Bolt
Author Davi Sales Barreira
ADM 1 Distrito Federal

Description:

Validation set 2 for DF using Chronos-Bolt


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 143.32 46.01 53.35 68.02 106.10 195.11 262.78 289.63 303.06
2023-10-15 134.38 37.34 44.47 58.73 96.59 184.01 258.51 288.60 303.64
2023-10-22 141.79 41.20 48.21 62.23 100.29 198.05 278.59 310.50 326.45
2023-10-29 156.34 54.25 61.81 76.95 116.69 213.37 298.99 333.36 350.54
2023-11-05 153.53 61.21 68.25 82.34 119.77 201.97 282.51 315.19 331.53
2023-11-12 143.23 56.41 63.10 76.48 111.29 194.25 286.23 323.99 342.87
2023-11-19 153.24 55.72 62.74 76.77 115.49 208.52 307.35 348.41 368.94
2023-11-26 169.66 64.10 71.38 85.95 124.82 233.82 345.54 392.20 415.53
2023-12-03 181.69 64.51 72.54 88.59 131.91 254.92 384.41 438.08 464.91
2023-12-10 185.75 67.79 75.09 89.69 131.26 272.43 420.48 481.65 512.24
2023-12-17 191.17 73.40 80.30 94.12 132.93 291.94 463.36 533.93 569.21
2023-12-24 203.91 79.90 87.18 101.74 142.92 320.77 513.12 590.80 629.64
2023-12-31 226.92 87.45 95.38 111.24 157.08 354.87 569.05 655.88 699.29
2024-01-07 237.73 87.28 95.62 112.30 160.70 374.72 595.98 684.35 728.53
2024-01-14 250.42 94.61 103.06 119.96 168.60 401.95 639.59 734.30 781.65
2024-01-21 270.79 104.49 113.05 130.17 179.99 433.86 687.69 788.05 838.23
2024-01-28 298.74 110.52 119.68 137.99 194.74 476.03 740.49 844.61 896.67
2024-02-04 352.30 122.15 134.47 159.09 232.07 549.17 827.82 938.05 993.17
2024-02-11 384.67 134.40 147.23 172.90 251.15 587.72 877.50 991.53 1048.55
2024-02-18 396.86 139.41 152.05 177.34 255.00 614.77 917.77 1037.44 1097.27
2024-02-25 419.58 142.65 157.06 185.86 271.30 653.87 970.86 1094.97 1157.02
2024-03-03 448.67 145.66 161.25 192.42 286.02 699.11 1035.02 1166.64 1232.46
2024-03-10 458.67 138.58 155.04 187.96 287.18 720.43 1062.69 1195.88 1262.47
2024-03-17 484.11 140.98 158.60 193.85 299.84 751.40 1103.79 1240.56 1308.95
2024-03-24 539.23 161.75 181.91 222.25 340.77 829.29 1212.38 1361.11 1435.48
2024-03-31 594.06 171.06 193.99 239.87 376.18 905.70 1298.83 1449.54 1524.89
2024-04-07 643.04 187.57 213.09 264.13 412.95 965.35 1365.99 1521.28 1598.93
2024-04-14 635.95 189.94 214.17 262.64 407.01 946.90 1344.18 1499.10 1576.56
2024-04-21 597.21 181.91 204.42 249.46 382.17 903.01 1286.84 1435.61 1510.00
2024-04-28 601.18 171.89 195.48 242.67 382.18 902.66 1281.70 1428.50 1501.91
2024-05-05 570.21 151.93 174.72 220.29 356.90 862.31 1219.95 1358.11 1427.19
2024-05-12 503.66 135.16 154.48 193.13 309.26 782.33 1127.55 1261.45 1328.41
2024-05-19 475.60 134.34 151.62 186.18 292.17 740.35 1059.18 1182.37 1243.96
2024-05-26 440.53 132.30 147.25 177.14 270.16 690.45 999.46 1119.23 1179.12
2024-06-02 378.42 108.79 121.92 148.19 227.16 611.78 895.25 1004.15 1058.60
2024-06-09 323.34 91.74 102.92 125.28 192.73 535.30 799.01 901.69 953.03
2024-06-16 280.45 82.42 91.70 110.26 167.67 467.82 704.99 797.51 843.77
2024-06-23 232.16 67.86 75.65 91.23 139.63 396.04 606.03 688.26 729.38
2024-06-30 202.85 71.40 77.46 89.60 127.48 340.95 532.46 608.11 645.93
2024-07-07 179.06 71.65 76.97 87.61 119.50 296.99 462.25 527.62 560.30
2024-07-14 165.51 66.43 71.96 83.00 114.68 258.86 404.01 462.27 491.40
2024-07-21 170.11 65.89 71.75 83.47 117.59 255.04 392.66 448.64 476.63
2024-07-28 164.11 61.14 67.18 79.26 114.91 241.01 365.79 415.61 440.52
2024-08-04 144.72 50.62 56.27 67.57 100.52 208.68 323.89 371.78 395.72
2024-08-11 133.40 41.00 47.06 59.16 93.64 190.30 284.72 323.64 343.11
2024-08-18 140.72 43.35 49.12 60.66 95.08 194.06 292.64 332.91 353.05
2024-08-25 126.81 25.88 32.20 44.85 81.65 175.19 272.33 313.00 333.34
2024-09-01 117.88 18.60 25.44 39.13 77.54 164.19 258.03 297.82 317.71
2024-09-08 131.77 16.82 25.21 41.99 87.33 178.96 280.09 322.84 344.22
2024-09-15 138.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 43.77 233.27 311.21 339.44 353.56
2024-09-22 174.48 0.00 1.23 27.18 96.13 250.87 317.10 341.69 353.99
2024-09-29 177.18 17.52 27.80 48.36 105.22 248.24 316.54 340.63 352.67
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