Prediction 245

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 65.85 - 62.26 - - - - 69.60 -
2022-07-03 71.05 - 67.28 - - - - 74.98 -
2022-07-10 63.91 - 60.39 - - - - 67.59 -
2022-07-17 65.08 - 61.52 - - - - 68.80 -
2022-07-24 53.61 - 50.46 - - - - 56.91 -
2022-07-31 48.57 - 45.61 - - - - 51.68 -
2022-08-07 57.39 - 54.10 - - - - 60.83 -
2022-08-14 48.38 - 45.42 - - - - 51.48 -
2022-08-21 39.29 - 36.69 - - - - 42.03 -
2022-08-28 43.97 - 41.18 - - - - 46.90 -
2022-09-04 39.01 - 36.42 - - - - 41.74 -
2022-09-11 42.07 - 39.35 - - - - 44.92 -
2022-09-18 43.84 - 41.06 - - - - 46.77 -
2022-09-25 41.05 - 38.37 - - - - 43.86 -
2022-10-02 41.88 - 39.17 - - - - 44.73 -
2022-10-09 42.50 - 39.77 - - - - 45.37 -
2022-10-16 46.43 - 43.54 - - - - 49.45 -
2022-10-23 39.51 - 36.89 - - - - 42.26 -
2022-10-30 44.26 - 41.46 - - - - 47.20 -
2022-11-06 55.03 - 51.82 - - - - 58.38 -
2022-11-13 66.02 - 62.43 - - - - 69.77 -
2022-11-20 79.26 - 75.21 - - - - 83.47 -
2022-11-27 88.21 - 83.87 - - - - 92.73 -
2022-12-04 80.33 - 76.24 - - - - 84.58 -
2022-12-11 89.88 - 85.48 - - - - 94.45 -
2022-12-18 88.63 - 84.27 - - - - 93.16 -
2022-12-25 88.08 - 83.88 - - - - 92.43 -
2023-01-01 378.12 - 74.66 - - - - 1175.15 -
2023-01-08 392.30 - 77.46 - - - - 1219.20 -
2023-01-15 414.70 - 81.89 - - - - 1288.81 -
2023-01-22 661.86 - 130.71 - - - - 2056.82 -
2023-01-29 703.47 - 138.93 - - - - 2186.11 -
2023-02-05 763.82 - 150.85 - - - - 2373.61 -
2023-02-12 890.26 - 175.83 - - - - 2766.51 -
2023-02-19 432.93 - 85.49 - - - - 1345.47 -
2023-02-26 918.80 - 181.47 - - - - 2855.21 -
2023-03-05 828.58 - 163.65 - - - - 2574.85 -
2023-03-12 766.00 - 151.28 - - - - 2380.40 -
2023-03-19 624.59 - 123.35 - - - - 1940.99 -
2023-03-26 336.44 - 66.43 - - - - 1045.65 -
2023-04-02 537.40 - 106.13 - - - - 1670.09 -
2023-04-09 416.69 - 82.28 - - - - 1295.01 -
2023-04-16 292.85 - 57.82 - - - - 910.19 -
2023-04-23 313.23 - 61.84 - - - - 973.53 -
2023-04-30 285.12 - 56.29 - - - - 886.16 -
2023-05-07 278.47 - 54.98 - - - - 865.50 -
2023-05-14 240.64 - 47.51 - - - - 747.97 -
2023-05-21 204.18 - 40.30 - - - - 634.67 -
2023-05-28 222.56 - 43.93 - - - - 691.79 -
2023-06-04 213.62 - 42.17 - - - - 663.99 -
2023-06-11 201.80 - 39.83 - - - - 627.28 -
2023-06-18 187.01 - 36.91 - - - - 581.30 -
2023-06-25 148.00 - 29.20 - - - - 460.11 -
2023-07-02 159.69 - 31.51 - - - - 496.42 -
2023-07-09 143.64 - 28.34 - - - - 446.57 -
2023-07-16 146.26 - 28.86 - - - - 454.71 -
2023-07-23 120.48 - 23.77 - - - - 374.61 -
2023-07-30 109.16 - 21.53 - - - - 339.43 -
2023-08-06 128.98 - 25.45 - - - - 401.00 -
2023-08-13 108.74 - 21.45 - - - - 338.11 -
2023-08-20 88.31 - 17.41 - - - - 274.62 -
2023-08-27 98.82 - 19.49 - - - - 307.28 -
2023-09-03 87.68 - 17.29 - - - - 272.66 -
2023-09-10 94.54 - 18.64 - - - - 294.00 -
2023-09-17 98.54 - 19.43 - - - - 306.41 -
2023-09-24 92.25 - 18.19 - - - - 286.89 -
2023-10-01 94.13 - 18.56 - - - - 292.71 -
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