Prediction 251

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 2293.29 - 2251.63 - - - - 2335.52 -
2022-07-03 1891.06 - 1853.94 - - - - 1928.73 -
2022-07-10 1912.36 - 1874.99 - - - - 1950.28 -
2022-07-17 1274.43 - 1244.91 - - - - 1304.47 -
2022-07-24 1316.02 - 1285.96 - - - - 1346.60 -
2022-07-31 1106.11 - 1078.87 - - - - 1133.86 -
2022-08-07 1078.28 - 1051.43 - - - - 1105.63 -
2022-08-14 1052.79 - 1026.29 - - - - 1079.78 -
2022-08-21 878.92 - 854.97 - - - - 903.37 -
2022-08-28 764.26 - 742.08 - - - - 786.92 -
2022-09-04 751.49 - 729.52 - - - - 773.94 -
2022-09-11 623.70 - 603.86 - - - - 644.02 -
2022-09-18 647.23 - 626.99 - - - - 667.96 -
2022-09-25 583.53 - 564.41 - - - - 603.14 -
2022-10-02 492.54 - 475.09 - - - - 510.46 -
2022-10-09 538.04 - 519.74 - - - - 556.83 -
2022-10-16 447.86 - 431.29 - - - - 464.90 -
2022-10-23 369.21 - 354.26 - - - - 384.61 -
2022-10-30 450.16 - 433.54 - - - - 467.24 -
2022-11-06 454.06 - 437.36 - - - - 471.22 -
2022-11-13 497.43 - 479.90 - - - - 515.44 -
2022-11-20 558.04 - 539.37 - - - - 577.19 -
2022-11-27 516.12 - 498.22 - - - - 534.49 -
2022-12-04 578.49 - 559.45 - - - - 598.01 -
2022-12-11 490.58 - 473.17 - - - - 508.46 -
2022-12-18 440.03 - 423.62 - - - - 456.91 -
2022-12-25 377.04 - 362.59 - - - - 391.90 -
2023-01-01 413.91 - 105.36 - - - - 1133.34 -
2023-01-08 462.46 - 117.73 - - - - 1266.24 -
2023-01-15 542.40 - 138.09 - - - - 1485.08 -
2023-01-22 661.38 - 168.38 - - - - 1810.79 -
2023-01-29 780.61 - 198.75 - - - - 2137.19 -
2023-02-05 882.61 - 224.72 - - - - 2416.39 -
2023-02-12 1079.75 - 274.93 - - - - 2956.07 -
2023-02-19 912.64 - 232.37 - - - - 2498.61 -
2023-02-26 1383.12 - 352.18 - - - - 3786.54 -
2023-03-05 1420.18 - 361.62 - - - - 3888.02 -
2023-03-12 1297.66 - 330.42 - - - - 3552.62 -
2023-03-19 1481.37 - 377.21 - - - - 4055.52 -
2023-03-26 1732.11 - 441.06 - - - - 4741.92 -
2023-04-02 2301.56 - 586.08 - - - - 6300.80 -
2023-04-09 2570.83 - 654.65 - - - - 7037.91 -
2023-04-16 2280.31 - 580.67 - - - - 6242.64 -
2023-04-23 2519.34 - 641.54 - - - - 6896.97 -
2023-04-30 2930.85 - 746.34 - - - - 8023.50 -
2023-05-07 2760.89 - 703.06 - - - - 7558.23 -
2023-05-14 2553.91 - 650.34 - - - - 6991.61 -
2023-05-21 2727.11 - 694.45 - - - - 7465.76 -
2023-05-28 2091.87 - 532.68 - - - - 5726.77 -
2023-06-04 1988.59 - 506.38 - - - - 5444.05 -
2023-06-11 1963.13 - 499.89 - - - - 5374.36 -
2023-06-18 1496.69 - 381.11 - - - - 4097.44 -
2023-06-25 1453.18 - 370.02 - - - - 3978.38 -
2023-07-02 1198.30 - 305.11 - - - - 3280.66 -
2023-07-09 1211.80 - 308.55 - - - - 3317.60 -
2023-07-16 807.56 - 205.61 - - - - 2211.01 -
2023-07-23 833.92 - 212.32 - - - - 2283.15 -
2023-07-30 700.91 - 178.44 - - - - 1919.03 -
2023-08-06 683.27 - 173.95 - - - - 1870.73 -
2023-08-13 667.11 - 169.84 - - - - 1826.51 -
2023-08-20 556.94 - 141.78 - - - - 1524.92 -
2023-08-27 484.28 - 123.28 - - - - 1326.01 -
2023-09-03 476.19 - 121.22 - - - - 1303.86 -
2023-09-10 395.22 - 100.60 - - - - 1082.20 -
2023-09-17 410.13 - 104.39 - - - - 1123.02 -
2023-09-24 369.77 - 94.11 - - - - 1012.52 -
2023-10-01 312.11 - 79.43 - - - - 854.68 -
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