Prediction 252

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 2285.93 - 2242.27 - - - - 2330.22 -
2022-07-03 1227.06 - 1195.75 - - - - 1258.96 -
2022-07-10 1598.05 - 1562.06 - - - - 1634.65 -
2022-07-17 1393.38 - 1359.94 - - - - 1427.43 -
2022-07-24 1138.32 - 1108.28 - - - - 1168.96 -
2022-07-31 1033.20 - 1004.66 - - - - 1062.34 -
2022-08-07 1033.12 - 1004.59 - - - - 1062.26 -
2022-08-14 987.23 - 959.37 - - - - 1015.69 -
2022-08-21 768.87 - 744.44 - - - - 793.89 -
2022-08-28 761.87 - 737.56 - - - - 786.76 -
2022-09-04 672.77 - 649.98 - - - - 696.13 -
2022-09-11 937.57 - 910.45 - - - - 965.28 -
2022-09-18 964.49 - 936.97 - - - - 992.61 -
2022-09-25 1002.55 - 974.46 - - - - 1031.24 -
2022-10-02 863.10 - 837.14 - - - - 889.66 -
2022-10-09 1056.17 - 1027.30 - - - - 1085.64 -
2022-10-16 1204.42 - 1173.47 - - - - 1235.97 -
2022-10-23 1249.70 - 1218.13 - - - - 1281.87 -
2022-10-30 1120.62 - 1090.82 - - - - 1151.01 -
2022-11-06 1314.62 - 1282.20 - - - - 1347.65 -
2022-11-13 1416.15 - 1382.42 - - - - 1450.49 -
2022-11-20 1557.53 - 1522.04 - - - - 1593.63 -
2022-11-27 1582.45 - 1546.65 - - - - 1618.87 -
2022-12-04 2321.53 - 2277.49 - - - - 2366.19 -
2022-12-11 1903.19 - 1863.67 - - - - 1943.34 -
2022-12-18 1617.21 - 1580.99 - - - - 1654.04 -
2022-12-25 1902.59 - 1865.57 - - - - 1940.14 -
2023-01-01 2009.51 - 582.25 - - - - 5127.18 -
2023-01-08 2254.05 - 653.12 - - - - 5751.11 -
2023-01-15 2491.38 - 721.89 - - - - 6356.60 -
2023-01-22 2746.29 - 795.76 - - - - 7006.97 -
2023-01-29 2769.07 - 802.36 - - - - 7065.10 -
2023-02-05 3108.26 - 900.65 - - - - 7930.48 -
2023-02-12 3492.35 - 1011.95 - - - - 8910.43 -
2023-02-19 3735.65 - 1082.45 - - - - 9531.16 -
2023-02-26 3782.99 - 1096.17 - - - - 9651.95 -
2023-03-05 3942.39 - 1142.36 - - - - 10058.62 -
2023-03-12 4202.59 - 1217.76 - - - - 10722.48 -
2023-03-19 3897.20 - 1129.26 - - - - 9943.35 -
2023-03-26 3740.77 - 1083.93 - - - - 9544.23 -
2023-04-02 4053.09 - 1174.44 - - - - 10341.07 -
2023-04-09 3161.26 - 916.00 - - - - 8065.73 -
2023-04-16 3791.89 - 1098.75 - - - - 9674.66 -
2023-04-23 3654.99 - 1059.08 - - - - 9325.38 -
2023-04-30 3539.68 - 1025.66 - - - - 9031.19 -
2023-05-07 3383.64 - 980.45 - - - - 8633.08 -
2023-05-14 3175.26 - 920.06 - - - - 8101.43 -
2023-05-21 2394.89 - 693.93 - - - - 6110.44 -
2023-05-28 2147.64 - 622.28 - - - - 5479.62 -
2023-06-04 2029.85 - 588.15 - - - - 5179.10 -
2023-06-11 1536.07 - 445.06 - - - - 3919.30 -
2023-06-18 1302.61 - 377.41 - - - - 3323.64 -
2023-06-25 1114.26 - 322.82 - - - - 2843.17 -
2023-07-02 598.12 - 173.26 - - - - 1526.31 -
2023-07-09 778.96 - 225.66 - - - - 1987.69 -
2023-07-16 679.19 - 196.75 - - - - 1733.16 -
2023-07-23 554.87 - 160.72 - - - - 1415.96 -
2023-07-30 503.63 - 145.88 - - - - 1285.23 -
2023-08-06 503.59 - 145.87 - - - - 1285.13 -
2023-08-13 481.22 - 139.38 - - - - 1228.06 -
2023-08-20 374.78 - 108.54 - - - - 956.50 -
2023-08-27 371.37 - 107.55 - - - - 947.78 -
2023-09-03 327.94 - 94.97 - - - - 836.98 -
2023-09-10 457.01 - 132.37 - - - - 1166.30 -
2023-09-17 470.14 - 136.17 - - - - 1199.78 -
2023-09-24 488.69 - 141.55 - - - - 1247.11 -
2023-10-01 420.71 - 121.85 - - - - 1073.69 -
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