Prediction 253

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 1008.34 - 989.79 - - - - 1027.15 -
2022-07-03 765.66 - 749.69 - - - - 781.88 -
2022-07-10 565.49 - 551.92 - - - - 579.31 -
2022-07-17 377.91 - 366.94 - - - - 389.11 -
2022-07-24 381.35 - 370.33 - - - - 392.61 -
2022-07-31 301.01 - 291.28 - - - - 310.98 -
2022-08-07 321.75 - 311.67 - - - - 332.06 -
2022-08-14 303.00 - 293.24 - - - - 313.00 -
2022-08-21 338.42 - 328.08 - - - - 349.01 -
2022-08-28 282.03 - 272.63 - - - - 291.67 -
2022-09-04 312.28 - 302.36 - - - - 322.43 -
2022-09-11 334.75 - 324.47 - - - - 345.28 -
2022-09-18 360.80 - 350.10 - - - - 371.74 -
2022-09-25 342.70 - 332.28 - - - - 353.35 -
2022-10-02 350.13 - 339.60 - - - - 360.90 -
2022-10-09 322.36 - 312.27 - - - - 332.68 -
2022-10-16 385.09 - 374.01 - - - - 396.40 -
2022-10-23 366.45 - 355.66 - - - - 377.48 -
2022-10-30 398.12 - 386.85 - - - - 409.63 -
2022-11-06 437.28 - 425.43 - - - - 449.36 -
2022-11-13 470.58 - 458.27 - - - - 483.14 -
2022-11-20 604.08 - 590.02 - - - - 618.39 -
2022-11-27 622.70 - 608.41 - - - - 637.24 -
2022-12-04 779.62 - 763.49 - - - - 795.99 -
2022-12-11 846.25 - 829.39 - - - - 863.36 -
2022-12-18 906.59 - 889.09 - - - - 924.35 -
2022-12-25 976.57 - 959.00 - - - - 994.37 -
2023-01-01 2210.33 - 202.95 - - - - 9268.51 -
2023-01-08 2901.76 - 266.44 - - - - 12167.82 -
2023-01-15 3308.76 - 303.81 - - - - 13874.48 -
2023-01-22 3804.48 - 349.33 - - - - 15953.11 -
2023-01-29 3710.58 - 340.71 - - - - 15559.38 -
2023-02-05 5149.75 - 472.86 - - - - 21594.12 -
2023-02-12 6439.26 - 591.26 - - - - 27001.29 -
2023-02-19 6243.09 - 573.25 - - - - 26178.70 -
2023-02-26 7069.58 - 649.14 - - - - 29644.32 -
2023-03-05 8997.49 - 826.17 - - - - 37728.44 -
2023-03-12 8864.12 - 813.92 - - - - 37169.21 -
2023-03-19 9549.88 - 876.89 - - - - 40044.74 -
2023-03-26 8864.31 - 813.94 - - - - 37170.01 -
2023-04-02 11446.65 - 1051.06 - - - - 47998.25 -
2023-04-09 11014.99 - 1011.42 - - - - 46188.25 -
2023-04-16 10018.12 - 919.88 - - - - 42008.17 -
2023-04-23 9779.87 - 898.01 - - - - 41009.11 -
2023-04-30 8905.70 - 817.74 - - - - 37343.56 -
2023-05-07 8097.47 - 743.52 - - - - 33954.50 -
2023-05-14 7092.11 - 651.21 - - - - 29738.83 -
2023-05-21 4970.55 - 456.40 - - - - 20842.69 -
2023-05-28 3047.42 - 279.81 - - - - 12778.59 -
2023-06-04 3124.57 - 286.90 - - - - 13102.12 -
2023-06-11 2217.66 - 203.62 - - - - 9299.25 -
2023-06-18 1385.88 - 127.24 - - - - 5811.45 -
2023-06-25 1149.82 - 105.57 - - - - 4821.62 -
2023-07-02 873.09 - 80.16 - - - - 3661.21 -
2023-07-09 644.84 - 59.20 - - - - 2704.12 -
2023-07-16 430.93 - 39.56 - - - - 1807.16 -
2023-07-23 434.86 - 39.92 - - - - 1823.62 -
2023-07-30 343.25 - 31.51 - - - - 1439.48 -
2023-08-06 366.89 - 33.68 - - - - 1538.64 -
2023-08-13 345.51 - 31.71 - - - - 1448.99 -
2023-08-20 385.91 - 35.42 - - - - 1618.38 -
2023-08-27 321.60 - 29.52 - - - - 1348.72 -
2023-09-03 356.09 - 32.69 - - - - 1493.35 -
2023-09-10 381.72 - 35.04 - - - - 1600.82 -
2023-09-17 411.42 - 37.77 - - - - 1725.37 -
2023-09-24 390.79 - 35.87 - - - - 1638.82 -
2023-10-01 399.26 - 36.65 - - - - 1674.35 -