Prediction 254

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2022-06-26 1403.11 - 1365.46 - - - - 1441.51 -
2022-07-03 1151.14 - 1117.23 - - - - 1185.81 -
2022-07-10 978.62 - 947.48 - - - - 1010.50 -
2022-07-17 821.10 - 792.70 - - - - 850.23 -
2022-07-24 799.07 - 771.08 - - - - 827.80 -
2022-07-31 760.08 - 732.82 - - - - 788.09 -
2022-08-07 771.18 - 743.71 - - - - 799.40 -
2022-08-14 734.17 - 707.40 - - - - 761.69 -
2022-08-21 789.10 - 761.30 - - - - 817.66 -
2022-08-28 790.05 - 762.23 - - - - 818.62 -
2022-09-04 844.86 - 816.03 - - - - 874.42 -
2022-09-11 979.10 - 947.95 - - - - 1011.00 -
2022-09-18 888.31 - 858.72 - - - - 918.65 -
2022-09-25 900.64 - 870.83 - - - - 931.19 -
2022-10-02 888.91 - 859.31 - - - - 919.26 -
2022-10-09 1030.05 - 998.06 - - - - 1062.79 -
2022-10-16 955.36 - 924.61 - - - - 986.86 -
2022-10-23 1126.12 - 1092.60 - - - - 1160.40 -
2022-10-30 1138.44 - 1104.72 - - - - 1172.91 -
2022-11-06 1398.42 - 1360.85 - - - - 1436.76 -
2022-11-13 1492.17 - 1453.29 - - - - 1531.82 -
2022-11-20 1727.59 - 1685.57 - - - - 1770.39 -
2022-11-27 1782.01 - 1739.29 - - - - 1825.50 -
2022-12-04 1826.81 - 1783.52 - - - - 1870.88 -
2022-12-11 2163.03 - 2115.65 - - - - 2211.18 -
2022-12-18 2008.50 - 1962.96 - - - - 2054.81 -
2022-12-25 1396.65 - 1363.94 - - - - 1429.93 -
2023-01-01 1020.38 - 105.32 - - - - 4117.06 -
2023-01-08 1321.19 - 136.37 - - - - 5330.73 -
2023-01-15 1632.32 - 168.49 - - - - 6586.02 -
2023-01-22 2123.30 - 219.18 - - - - 8566.97 -
2023-01-29 2211.38 - 228.27 - - - - 8922.34 -
2023-02-05 2907.13 - 300.09 - - - - 11729.46 -
2023-02-12 3342.68 - 345.05 - - - - 13486.74 -
2023-02-19 3667.23 - 378.56 - - - - 14796.20 -
2023-02-26 4511.46 - 465.71 - - - - 18202.37 -
2023-03-05 3696.00 - 381.53 - - - - 14912.26 -
2023-03-12 5390.10 - 556.41 - - - - 21747.34 -
2023-03-19 4938.73 - 509.82 - - - - 19926.24 -
2023-03-26 5119.49 - 528.48 - - - - 20655.55 -
2023-04-02 5244.08 - 541.34 - - - - 21158.23 -
2023-04-09 4830.39 - 498.63 - - - - 19489.13 -
2023-04-16 4270.25 - 440.81 - - - - 17229.13 -
2023-04-23 3998.30 - 412.73 - - - - 16131.91 -
2023-04-30 3646.37 - 376.40 - - - - 14712.03 -
2023-05-07 3528.37 - 364.22 - - - - 14235.91 -
2023-05-14 2439.08 - 251.77 - - - - 9841.01 -
2023-05-21 1895.51 - 195.66 - - - - 7647.90 -
2023-05-28 1284.73 - 132.61 - - - - 5183.63 -
2023-06-04 1055.85 - 108.98 - - - - 4260.15 -
2023-06-11 901.85 - 93.09 - - - - 3638.84 -
2023-06-18 920.01 - 94.96 - - - - 3712.10 -
2023-06-25 597.67 - 61.68 - - - - 2411.61 -
2023-07-02 490.34 - 50.60 - - - - 1978.58 -
2023-07-09 416.85 - 43.02 - - - - 1682.08 -
2023-07-16 349.76 - 36.09 - - - - 1411.36 -
2023-07-23 340.37 - 35.12 - - - - 1373.51 -
2023-07-30 323.77 - 33.41 - - - - 1306.50 -
2023-08-06 328.49 - 33.89 - - - - 1325.58 -
2023-08-13 312.73 - 32.27 - - - - 1261.98 -
2023-08-20 336.13 - 34.68 - - - - 1356.39 -
2023-08-27 336.53 - 34.72 - - - - 1358.02 -
2023-09-03 359.88 - 37.13 - - - - 1452.20 -
2023-09-10 417.06 - 43.04 - - - - 1682.91 -
2023-09-17 378.39 - 39.04 - - - - 1526.88 -
2023-09-24 383.64 - 39.59 - - - - 1548.07 -
2023-10-01 378.64 - 39.07 - - - - 1527.91 -